⚠️ Representatives of the United States and the Islamic Republic have agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, during which the Strait of Hormuz will remain open;

🏛 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has decided to keep the official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%;

🛢 According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.7 million barrels last week, compared to a forecast increase of 2 million barrels;

📰 According to FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut this year has risen from 12.8% to 35%;

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#dxy

💵 The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 98.40.

⚠️ Improved market sentiment has put pressure on the dollar amid reports of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic. Additionally, signs of de-escalation in the conflict have caused a sharp drop in oil prices, prompting market participants to revise their expectations regarding a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have ruled out the possibility of a tightening of U.S. monetary policy this year, marking a sharp shift from expectations of at least one hike just a few days ago.

📊 Today, traders are focusing on the minutes of the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will be released at 6:00 p.m. Analysts believe that the impact of the FOMC minutes on the dollar will be limited, as past comments by policymakers on the outlook for the economy and inflation were linked to the risks of war in the Middle East, which may soon come to an end.

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⚠️ Tehran is considering withdrawing from the ceasefire agreement after Israel attacked Lebanon;

📰 Shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz has been halted again due to violations of the ceasefire terms;

🏛 According to the minutes of the latest Fed meeting, the U.S. central bank’s leadership still expects interest rates to be cut this year, despite high levels of uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle East;

🛢 According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3 million barrels last week, compared with a forecast increase of 0.7 million barrels.

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#sp500

📈 The S&P 500 index is trading at 6,750.

🚀 The U.S. stock market posted impressive gains yesterday amid the first signs of a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. However, the latest news from the region points to renewed uncertainty regarding the stability of the ceasefire.

⚠️ Thus, the Islamic Republic stated that Israel’s ongoing aggression against Lebanon constitutes a violation of the ceasefire agreement and noted that it would be “unwise” to continue negotiations with the U.S. on reaching a permanent peace agreement. Furthermore, the Fars News Agency reported late Wednesday that oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz were halted after Israel violated the ceasefire. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that all American ships, aircraft, and military personnel would remain in place in the Middle East until a real agreement is reached and fully implemented, warning that failure to comply would result in a tougher military response.

📉 Given the current sentiment, the S&P 500 index may come under pressure again.

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