⚠️ U.S. President Donald Trump has extended the ceasefire until a peace agreement is reached with Tehran;

🏛 Kevin Warsh stated that he had not made any promises to Trump regarding interest rate cuts, seeking to assure senators considering his nomination for Fed chair that he would act independently of the White House;

🛢 According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.4 million barrels last week, compared to a forecast of a 1 million-barrel decline;

📊 Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% in March, compared with a 0.7% increase in February.

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#sp500

📈 The S&P 500 index is trading at 7,110, holding steady near its all-time high.

⚠️ The index is being supported by improved market sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump extended the truce following the failure of the second round of negotiations between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic.

📊 Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% in March after a 0.7% increase in February. On an annual basis, sales rose by 4%, matching the previous figure. Stronger-than-expected data on consumer activity increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged this year.

📣 In addition, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh, speaking before the Senate yesterday, noted the importance of preserving the regulator’s independence and promised sweeping reforms that would increase the effectiveness of monetary policy.

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🇳🇿 S&P Global’s PMI index for Australia’s manufacturing sector rose to 51 in April from 49.8 in March;

🏛 According to a Reuters survey, 56 out of 103 respondents expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep rates in the current range of 3.5%–3.75% at least until September;

🛢 According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels last week, compared with a forecast of a 1.2 million-barrel decline;

🇬🇧 The UK’s overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.3% year-over-year in March, up from 3% in February.

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#usdjpy

🇺🇸🇯🇵 The USD/JPY pair is trading at 159.70.

⚠️ Despite the extension of the ceasefire between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic, the lack of progress in peace talks and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Moreover, the risk of further escalation of tensions is supporting high oil prices, intensifying inflation fears and dampening dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy.

📰 The Japanese yen, on the other hand, is under pressure due to concerns that Japan will face serious difficulties as a result of ongoing disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East. Additionally, on the sell side, there is a high probability that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting in late April.

📈 Given this, the USD/JPY pair may continue to rise.

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