⚠️ The U.S. and the Islamic Republic have rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal put forward by Pakistan;

📊 The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell from 56.1 to 54 in March;

🇳🇿 Australia’s S&P Global Services PMI fell to 46.3 in March, marking the sharpest decline since November 2023;

🏛 Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that a rate hike may be appropriate if inflation continues to rise.

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#usdcad

🇺🇸🇨🇦The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.3910.

🏛 At its March 18 meeting, the Bank of Canada kept its interest rate at 2.25%. The meeting minutes indicate that the situation in the Middle East has worsened economic forecasts, so the regulator does not want to rush into quick decisions under current conditions. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at the April meeting as well.

📊 Meanwhile, the Canadian economy remains weak. In the fourth quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.6%, and unemployment rose to 6.7%. Additionally, the March business activity index for the services sector remained in recession territory for the fifth consecutive month, which could put further pressure on economic growth. Canada’s March labor market report will be released on Friday. The economy is expected to have added a modest 15,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose from 6.7% to 6.8%, reaching a new multi-year high.

📈 Given this, the USD/CAD pair retains upside potential.

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⚠️ Representatives of the United States and the Islamic Republic have agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, during which the Strait of Hormuz will remain open;

🏛 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has decided to keep the official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%;

🛢 According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.7 million barrels last week, compared to a forecast increase of 2 million barrels;

📰 According to FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut this year has risen from 12.8% to 35%;

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#dxy

💵 The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 98.40.

⚠️ Improved market sentiment has put pressure on the dollar amid reports of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic. Additionally, signs of de-escalation in the conflict have caused a sharp drop in oil prices, prompting market participants to revise their expectations regarding a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have ruled out the possibility of a tightening of U.S. monetary policy this year, marking a sharp shift from expectations of at least one hike just a few days ago.

📊 Today, traders are focusing on the minutes of the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will be released at 6:00 p.m. Analysts believe that the impact of the FOMC minutes on the dollar will be limited, as past comments by policymakers on the outlook for the economy and inflation were linked to the risks of war in the Middle East, which may soon come to an end.

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