Regarding the situation in the Kupyansk direction - Pishchane sector:
Russian forces are reportedly advancing north of Pishcane. This is likely for two reasons:
1. In an attempt to protect the northern flank of the spearhead from Ukrainian counterattacks while also making travel through the spearhead much safer.
2. To get behind the Ukrainian groupings on the tactical heights behind Tabaivka.
Once the flank is secured, the Russians have three choices. Attack south of Pishchane down the gulley to protect their southern flank before advancing to Ukrainian fortifications, advance to westwards to Ukrainian fortifications without protecting their southern flank, or do both options simultaneously.
Either way, the Russians will attack westwards in the near future, likely with the goal of seizing the three key trench fortifications that lie near the villages of Kruhlyakivka and Kolisynkivka - both of which are on the eastern bank of the Oskil river.
This will drive a wedge through the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Oskil river, and if Russian forces can cut the Kruhlyakivka-Kupyansk road, then it will significantly complicate logistics for the northern bridgehead and degrade the defence of the fortress village of Synkivka in the north.
This will also take the Ukrainian groupings in the north of the bridgehead into a salient, with their backs against the Oskil River, facing attacks from all directions. If the bridges are all blown, then Ukraine will be forced to conduct a chaotic withdrawal using pontoon bridges. Ukrainian groupings there will also probably be subjected to mass FAB strikes, resulting in heavy casualties.
Russian forces are reportedly advancing north of Pishcane. This is likely for two reasons:
1. In an attempt to protect the northern flank of the spearhead from Ukrainian counterattacks while also making travel through the spearhead much safer.
2. To get behind the Ukrainian groupings on the tactical heights behind Tabaivka.
Once the flank is secured, the Russians have three choices. Attack south of Pishchane down the gulley to protect their southern flank before advancing to Ukrainian fortifications, advance to westwards to Ukrainian fortifications without protecting their southern flank, or do both options simultaneously.
Either way, the Russians will attack westwards in the near future, likely with the goal of seizing the three key trench fortifications that lie near the villages of Kruhlyakivka and Kolisynkivka - both of which are on the eastern bank of the Oskil river.
This will drive a wedge through the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Oskil river, and if Russian forces can cut the Kruhlyakivka-Kupyansk road, then it will significantly complicate logistics for the northern bridgehead and degrade the defence of the fortress village of Synkivka in the north.
This will also take the Ukrainian groupings in the north of the bridgehead into a salient, with their backs against the Oskil River, facing attacks from all directions. If the bridges are all blown, then Ukraine will be forced to conduct a chaotic withdrawal using pontoon bridges. Ukrainian groupings there will also probably be subjected to mass FAB strikes, resulting in heavy casualties.
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Update from the Pokrovsk direction:
Geolocated footage and new reliable reports indicate that Russian forces are continuing to advance in the direction of Pokrovsk and Hrodivka.
Firstly, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces did indeed make further progress along the railway line on the tactical heights and have seized positions west of Vovche. As usual, the Russians likely used the cover of the windbreaks on either side of the railway tracks to prevent them from being hit by Ukrainian FPV drones or artillery.
Secondly, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces made a small advance southwest Lozuvatske. Here they captured a forested area and more of the orchards. Reliable reports also indicate that Russian forces closed the new pocket formed north of Prohres, seizing the treelines where the Ukrainian positions were and capturing the 1.86km long treeline outside Ivanivka. Russian forces also reportedly advanced in the direction of Lysychne.
And finally, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces advanced northwest of Lozuvatske, capturing positions in the trees near the Kazenya reservoir. Reliable sources claimed that Russian forces advanced further and are fighting in the first couple houses of Tymofiivka.
Overall, the whole front near Ocherteyne and Prohres continues to move westwards in the direction of Pokrovsk. It is important to note that this is still occurring in an attritional manner, and "big arrow" attacks are not expected for now.
Colours for map:
Red = Confirmed Russian controlled territory
Yellow = Confirmed Russian advances
Purple = Likely Russian advances
Geolocated footage and new reliable reports indicate that Russian forces are continuing to advance in the direction of Pokrovsk and Hrodivka.
Firstly, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces did indeed make further progress along the railway line on the tactical heights and have seized positions west of Vovche. As usual, the Russians likely used the cover of the windbreaks on either side of the railway tracks to prevent them from being hit by Ukrainian FPV drones or artillery.
Secondly, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces made a small advance southwest Lozuvatske. Here they captured a forested area and more of the orchards. Reliable reports also indicate that Russian forces closed the new pocket formed north of Prohres, seizing the treelines where the Ukrainian positions were and capturing the 1.86km long treeline outside Ivanivka. Russian forces also reportedly advanced in the direction of Lysychne.
And finally, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces advanced northwest of Lozuvatske, capturing positions in the trees near the Kazenya reservoir. Reliable sources claimed that Russian forces advanced further and are fighting in the first couple houses of Tymofiivka.
Overall, the whole front near Ocherteyne and Prohres continues to move westwards in the direction of Pokrovsk. It is important to note that this is still occurring in an attritional manner, and "big arrow" attacks are not expected for now.
Colours for map:
Red = Confirmed Russian controlled territory
Yellow = Confirmed Russian advances
Purple = Likely Russian advances
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Forwarded from Middle East Observer (ME_OBSERVER)
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⚡️ From the place of Ismail Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran this morning 💔💔😭
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AMK Mapping
An Iranian Source claimed that the Missile which Struck the Home of Hamas Chief Political Leader Ismail Haniyeh last night in Tehran, killing him, was launched by an Israeli Aircraft that was outside of Iranian Airspace. Interestingly, no explosions were reported…
Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Netanyahu plans to hold an Operational Assessment with Senior Military Leaders at noon (in 50 mins time).
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AMK Mapping
A few hours ago, Ukraine struck a warehouse for storing weapons and military equipment near Kursk with UAVs.
Luhansk and Donetsk cities were also hit by something. It is unclear whether this was an MLRS launch or a UAV.
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And as expected, Russian forces re-activated this part of the frontline and partially closed the Urozhaine salient.
Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces advanced by ~1.06km and captured positions just below the tactical heights. The goal is likely to flatten out the frontline in order to support future attacks on Blahodatne and Makarivka.
Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces advanced by ~1.06km and captured positions just below the tactical heights. The goal is likely to flatten out the frontline in order to support future attacks on Blahodatne and Makarivka.
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The Supreme-Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei stated that “It is our Duty to take Revenge and Severely Punish the Zionist Entity for the Assassination in Iran, because the Assassination was carried out on our Soil.”
The question is, is he just bluffing and will downplay the attack, or will Iran conduct a major response.
The question is, is he just bluffing and will downplay the attack, or will Iran conduct a major response.
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A reliable source reported that Russian forces broke through Ukrainian positions in Niu-York and advanced by ~2.1km in a northerly direction.
Here they reportedly crossed a tributary of the Kryvyi Torets River and cut off the eastern-most part of the town from the central part.
This means that if this advance is true, and if the Ukrainians haven't already withdrawn from the salient to the south, the Russians have operationally encircled them due to the reservoir being in the way of withdrawals.
Depending on the number of Ukrainian troops defending the pocket, this may be a major development in the fighting in the Niu-York area.
Here they reportedly crossed a tributary of the Kryvyi Torets River and cut off the eastern-most part of the town from the central part.
This means that if this advance is true, and if the Ukrainians haven't already withdrawn from the salient to the south, the Russians have operationally encircled them due to the reservoir being in the way of withdrawals.
Depending on the number of Ukrainian troops defending the pocket, this may be a major development in the fighting in the Niu-York area.
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AMK Mapping
A reliable source reported that Russian forces broke through Ukrainian positions in Niu-York and advanced by ~2.1km in a northerly direction. Here they reportedly crossed a tributary of the Kryvyi Torets River and cut off the eastern-most part of the town…
If the Russians have indeed advanced in Niu-York and captured Zalizne, then they have essentially encircled the Ukrainians in the 2015 fortifications. There are mainly just swampy fields to withdraw through. We might be about to see a very chaotic withdrawal...
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MiG-31K airborne. The MiG-31K can carry the Kinzhal Hypersonic missile.
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Forwarded from Middle East Observer (ME_OBSERVER)
⚡️ Urgent: The municipality of Rishon Lezion near Tel Aviv announces the cancellation of all mass gatherings in the city today.
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https://t.co/BHxiVOKg2d
If this is true, then we might be facing a wider middle eastern war.
If this is true, then we might be facing a wider middle eastern war.
NY Times
Iran’s Leader Orders Attack on Israel for Haniyeh Killing, Officials Say
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered retaliation after a humiliating security failure, as Iran once again balances showing strength against the risk of escalation.
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AMK Mapping
https://t.co/BHxiVOKg2d If this is true, then we might be facing a wider middle eastern war.
If Iran and its proxies do retaliate, then it will be up to Israel how to respond back.
Last time when Israel didn’t respond to their people’s liking, Netanyahu lost a lot of support from the far right. He dropped significantly in the polls to around 20%. His main base of supporters were the centrists and the centre-rights.
If Israel doesn’t have a significant response then Netanyahu will risk losing his remaining far right supporters, which makes me inclined to believe that Netanyahu will do an over-the-top response.
Keep in mind, this all depends on whether Iran responds and if they do, how significant this response is. They might just use their proxies to attack Israel, or they might use their proxies and their own missiles and drones. It’s impossible to know, so let’s wait and see.
Last time when Israel didn’t respond to their people’s liking, Netanyahu lost a lot of support from the far right. He dropped significantly in the polls to around 20%. His main base of supporters were the centrists and the centre-rights.
If Israel doesn’t have a significant response then Netanyahu will risk losing his remaining far right supporters, which makes me inclined to believe that Netanyahu will do an over-the-top response.
Keep in mind, this all depends on whether Iran responds and if they do, how significant this response is. They might just use their proxies to attack Israel, or they might use their proxies and their own missiles and drones. It’s impossible to know, so let’s wait and see.
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Forwarded from Kalibrated (Scott)
Israel has sent messages through diplomatic channels to Lebanon and Iran where Israel says they are ready to go to the point of all-out war if Hezbollah and Iran respond in a way that will severely damage Israel. Israel is preparing for various scenarios, including the possibility of Hezbollah attempting to breach the northern border in response to the assassination.
-Israel's Channel 12
-Israel's Channel 12
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