The bulk of these Shaheds are in Cherkasy and Kirovohrad Oblasts. They might still head north to Kyiv.
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2 Tu-95s are almost at the Caspian launch lines. There is no info on the other 4.
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Ukrainian channels reported that 4 out of the 6 Tu-95s probably landed. Maybe there won't be a strike today...
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Forwarded from Kalibrated (Scott)
They very well could be testing the fences to see if F-16 scramble. Ukrainians have been very successful with rebasing during strike days.
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It's become clear to me that the Tu-95s will not launch Kh-101 cruise missiles today. I will finish my reporting on the drone strikes for now, as I only cover them live during missile strikes. Thanks to all the new subscribers for joining!
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The Russian offensive near Zhelanne appears to have stalled for the past couple of days.
This could be for two reasons:
1. The Ukrainians are putting up heavy resistance and holding the line
2. The Russians are being very careful and consolidating their new positions near the outskirts while attacking elsewhere.
I'm personally more inclined to believe the latter as Ukraine's manpower issues in this area significantly hampers their ability to put up significant resistance.
It appears that the Russians will continue with their attritional strategy for the foreseeable future rather than launching big arrow attacks that would result in heavy losses.
This could be for two reasons:
1. The Ukrainians are putting up heavy resistance and holding the line
2. The Russians are being very careful and consolidating their new positions near the outskirts while attacking elsewhere.
I'm personally more inclined to believe the latter as Ukraine's manpower issues in this area significantly hampers their ability to put up significant resistance.
It appears that the Russians will continue with their attritional strategy for the foreseeable future rather than launching big arrow attacks that would result in heavy losses.
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