uh oh..

Just an hour ago, the IDF confirmed that Hezbollah's chief of staff and "third-in-command" was killed in a precision strike on Beirut.

It's too early to tell whether this is the beginning of a new front, but this is major news.

They continue to move in the direction of the launch lines in Saratov Oblast. I'd say that there is a 95% chance of a major missile strike today considering that the Kilo-class submarines are also active.

Shaheds are attacking Kyiv. Air defence is active. Today's missiles might target the capital.

15-20 Shaheds in the North of the country + more Shaheds in the south.

This is what Ukrainian telegram channels are looking like right now:

"2 mopeds in the east of Vinnytsia region, heading north-west

1 moped in Cherkasy region, southwestern course

1 moped at the intersection of Kirovograd and Nikolaev regions, heading west

1 moped in the Dolinskaya area, heading east

1 new moped flew over Antonovka on a northwestern course

2 new mopeds through the Kherson region towards Bereznegovaty

1 new moped towards Pokrov, Dnipropetrovsk region

another group (4-6 pieces) across the left bank of the Kherson region

1 moped in the north of the Zhytomyr region, heading southwest

5 mopeds from the Chernihiv region fly to the Kyiv region

1 moped in the Kanev area

1 moped north of Poltava, heading southeast

1 moped in the south of the Kharkov region, heading southeast

1 moped in the south of Sumy region, heading north

1 moped from Poltava region flies to Cherkasy region

6 mopeds through the Shostka area heading west

1 moped west of Chernigov heading southwest

4 mopeds in the north of the Chernihiv region, heading west

threat to mopeds 👉 Nikolaev, Kherson, Vinnitsa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovograd, Chernihiv, Kiev, Zhytomyr regions"

~20 Shahed drones are approaching Kyiv from the east.

Roughly 40 Shahed drones are over Ukraine right now. This is one of the biggest attacks.

~40 mins until the Tu-95's reach the launch lines.

More explosions in Kyiv.

Multiple waves of Shaheds have been launched so far. Meanwhile, the Tu-95s are only 20-30 mins from the launch lines.

6 Tu-95s are flying over Penza Oblast and are approaching Saratov.

5 MiG-31Ks are in a state of readiness.

Air raid alerts already cover most of Ukraine.

The Tu-95's are likely at the launch lines.

If they don't launch in the next few minutes, they will likely launch over the Caspian region.

Still no launches

Ukrainian monitor channels estimate that at least 65 Shaheds were launched. This might be a record night.

More explosions in Kyiv

The Tu-95s changed their course to the south and are heading for the Caspian region. They might not be launching in Saratov.