Situation in West Africa (Over the last week)

Mali:
A column of Wagner vehicles was traveling near Tinzawaten at the border with Algeria when it came under fire from CSP forces. After intense exchanges of fire, the Wagner column was forced to turn back. Equipment was left at the site of the confrontation and two helicopters came to carry out evacuations. Four armored vehicles were left behind, three of which were seriously damaged. At least two members of the CSP and at least two mercenaries of Wagner were killed.

The Malian army and Wagner forces captured the town of In-Afarak, near the border with Algeria. This may be connected to the CSP attacks on the Wagner convoy.

JNIM attacked the village of Dembo killing 26 civilians. Livestock and food were taken away by the JNIM forces.

Niger:
ISIS launched the deadliest attack on government forces in Niger’s history. More than 350 heavily armed terrorists attacked a government convoy near Tankadémi on the border with Mali. 237 government forces were reportedly killed in the attack.

Burkina Faso:
The Al-qaeda affiliated group “JNIM” attacked the government allied volunteer militia “VDP” at their base in Bourzanga. At least 8 VDP troops and 1 civilian were killed according to a provisional report. Several JMIN terrorists were also killed.

Map by @Suriyak_maps

3 Russian submarines of the project "Varshavyanka" are active in the Black Sea.

They may be carrying up to 12 Kalibr cruise missiles.

I doubt there will be a major missile strike, but if there is while I'm still awake, I will do live updates on them.

Pro-Ukrainian source "Deepstate" reported that Russian forces entered yet another village in the Pokrovsk direction.

Tymofiivka is the next settlement in a chain of small villages in the direction of the town of Hrodivka.

Russian forces reportedly advanced from the orchards in the south and from Lozuvatske in the southeast to the treelines just outside the settlement. Fighting is reportedly ongoing in the first couple houses of the village.

If true, this would be an advance of ~1.55km and may be used to create a small salient east of Ivanivka.

Explosions in Kursk.

A few hours ago, Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Syrian territory in Tal al-Jabiyah, Tal Um Houran, and a Syrian military base near Nawa, all in the countryside of Daraa (circled in red)

Explosions were reported near Daraa.

A gun battle broke out in the streets of Caracas following Maduro's election "victory". Rioting has been spreading throughout the country with plumes of smoke rising over the capital.

Venezuelan police have begun handing over weapons to rioters. Is this the beginning of something big?

Russian forces may have re-activated the northern Flank of Bakhmut in the direction of Slovyansk and Siversk.

Reliable reports indicate that Russian forces advanced by ~830 near Rozdolivka and gained a foothold in the settlement of Pereizne. There are two known trench systems in Pereizne, meaning that the if Russian troops reached them, unless Ukraine deploys enough manpower there, they won't be dislodged.

Additionally, one source reported that Russian forces advanced near Zaliznyanske in two different directions.

The push near Zaliznyanske is likely just to stretch the AFU further, while the push near Rozdolivka is likely in coordination with other assaults on Siversk.

6 Tu-95s airborne, heading to launch lines.
3 Kilo-class submarines are active in the Black sea
Shahed drones are flying around Ukraine
An Iskander strike was carried out earlier

There is likely going to be a major coordinated missile strike today

In other news, a ballistic missile was launched at Eilat , Southern Israel from Iraq. It was reportedly intercepted.

This follows reports of widespread GPS interference across Israel, from Eilat to Haifa.

The 6 Tu-95's are likely flying over Tver Oblast.

uh oh..

Just an hour ago, the IDF confirmed that Hezbollah's chief of staff and "third-in-command" was killed in a precision strike on Beirut.

It's too early to tell whether this is the beginning of a new front, but this is major news.

They continue to move in the direction of the launch lines in Saratov Oblast. I'd say that there is a 95% chance of a major missile strike today considering that the Kilo-class submarines are also active.

Shaheds are attacking Kyiv. Air defence is active. Today's missiles might target the capital.

15-20 Shaheds in the North of the country + more Shaheds in the south.

This is what Ukrainian telegram channels are looking like right now:

"2 mopeds in the east of Vinnytsia region, heading north-west

1 moped in Cherkasy region, southwestern course

1 moped at the intersection of Kirovograd and Nikolaev regions, heading west

1 moped in the Dolinskaya area, heading east

1 new moped flew over Antonovka on a northwestern course

2 new mopeds through the Kherson region towards Bereznegovaty

1 new moped towards Pokrov, Dnipropetrovsk region

another group (4-6 pieces) across the left bank of the Kherson region

1 moped in the north of the Zhytomyr region, heading southwest

5 mopeds from the Chernihiv region fly to the Kyiv region

1 moped in the Kanev area

1 moped north of Poltava, heading southeast

1 moped in the south of the Kharkov region, heading southeast

1 moped in the south of Sumy region, heading north

1 moped from Poltava region flies to Cherkasy region

6 mopeds through the Shostka area heading west

1 moped west of Chernigov heading southwest

4 mopeds in the north of the Chernihiv region, heading west

threat to mopeds 👉 Nikolaev, Kherson, Vinnitsa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovograd, Chernihiv, Kiev, Zhytomyr regions"

~20 Shahed drones are approaching Kyiv from the east.