While this advance is developing, another one will develop along the railroad and to the south. After passing Prohres the Russians can bypass the Ukrainian defenses located higher up on the west bank of the Vovcha and attack them from the rear (2). This will force a gradual withdrawal of the Ukrainians from these positions towards the defense line around Selydove. Here the presence of two large elevations would complicate a further advance of the Russian troops, so the battles will focus on the localities of Novogrodivka and Hrodivka (3). Their fall will open the doors to a future advance towards the urban agglomerations of Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk (4). However, this will not happen until the arrival of autumn and the slowdown of operations due to bad weather could delay the battle until winter. The war sadly continues.

Approximate paths of today's Russian Shahed drones. Based on preliminary reports, Russia launched 5 Shahed drones at Ukraine over the past 24 hours. The following information is based on reports by Ukrainian monitor and radar telegram channels, as well as Local telegram channels.

The Shahed drones flew over Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Donetsk, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as well as The Sea of Azov and Crimea.

As the Ukrainian air force claimed that only 4 drones were launched, it is likely that one of these drones hit its target. If I had to guess, it would probably be the one near Kupyansk as there is less Ukrainian air defence there.

Following the fall of Urozhaine, Russian forces are consolidating control over their new positions, especially the two trench systems in the northern outskirts of the village.

From there they will likely try to launch flanking attacks on the Ukrainian salient formed to the east of the settlement.

However the main assault will likely take place from both Urozhaine and Staromayorske on both banks of the Mokri Yaly river. This will likely occur after the assaults on the salient which will flatten out the frontline. The primary goal will likely be to capture the village of Makarivka - which was liberated by Ukrainian forces during the failed 2023 counter-offensive - before advancing to the village of Blahodatne on the eastern bank of the river.

This will reform the Vremivka salient and will put pressure on the road that runs through the key logistical hub of Velyka Novosilka.

Expect a Ukrainian withdrawal from the fields behind the reservoirs after the Russians begin attacks along the railway line west of Krasnohorivka.

Ukraine's southern flank is protected by a small river near Maksymalynivka, so the Russians will need to rely solely on the railway line and nearby treelines.

Visual confirmation has come out on a Ukrainian drone attack on Engels air base. This comes as Russia relocated several Tu-95s and Tu-22s here from Olenya air base due to the fear of a Ukrainian drone strike.

It appears that a massive coordinated missile strike is no longer imminent as the goal of the Russians was not to prepare for a missile strike but instead to prepare for a Ukrainian drone strike.

Regarding the situation in Mali:

A column of Wagner vehicles was traveling near Tinzawaten (circled in red) at the border with Algeria when it came under fire from CSP forces. CSP - also known as the Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense and Protection of Azawad - is a coalition of political and military movements that operates in northern Mali.

After intense exchanges of fire, the Wagner column was forced to turn back. Equipment was left at the site of the confrontation and two helicopters came to carry out evacuations. Four armored vehicles were left behind, three of which were seriously damaged. According to preliminary reports, At least two members of the CSP and at least two mercenaries of Wagner were killed.

However today, footage has surfaced appearing to show dozens of dead Wagner mercenaries near their burnt out convoys. This is indicative of a much larger clash that previously thought. It marks a major defeat for Wagner and a setback for Mali government forces.

This will also further increase tensions between the Malian government and allied forces and the rebel militias. Tensions were already high following the battles surrounding Timbuktu in late 2023 and the recent seizure of the village of In-Afarak near the border with Algeria in northern Mali.

More to come.

Map by @Suriyakmaps

Footage has been released reportedly showing the moment CSP forces attacked the Wagner convoy.

Israeli warplanes are being reported over Beirut. I will update if anything comes of it.

Geolocated footage and Ukrainian military reports indicates that Russian forces continue to advance in the Pokrovsk direction, this time capturing new positions in two primary directions.

The main advance occurred in the village of Vovche, where the Ukrainian military confirmed the loss of the settlement. The Russians likely attacked from the southwestern part of Prohres to enter Vovche. The maximum confirmed advance of Russian forces was 1.09km.

Russian forces also likely made significant progress in the direction of Zhelanne, likely advancing along the railway line and the adjacent treelines that branch off from the railway-line's windbreaks. The main branching attack took place in the direction of Zhelanne, with the goal being to capture the ridgeline that leads behind the Ukrainian fortifications on the western bank of the Vovcha river.

Russian forces also likely advanced to the outskirts of Vesele and Ivanivka. The maximum likely advance of Russian forces was 4.36km.

Russian forces were also confirmed to have advanced further north and captured the two-house "village" of Lozuvatske and advanced in the Orchards further southwest, approaching the next treelines in the area.
The maximum confirmed advance of Russian forces was ~1.86km

For the map colours:
Red = Confirmed Russian controlled territory
Yellow = Confirmed Russian advances
Purple = Likely Russian advances

I think I might be one of the only accounts on twitter who is in both Ukrainian propaganda AND Russian propaganda lists lol.

I'd consider this an achievement 🤣

It appears that Lashio is still contested, with two main pockets of Junta resistance in the north and southwest of the city. While it appears that Junta defences are crumbling, the remaining troops are putting up a hell of a fight.

This is probably some of the most intense urban warfare that we are seeing in Myanmar since the beginning of the war. Obviously nothing compared to Ukraine, but still significant for Myanmar.

The question is, how significant will these retaliatory strikes be...

Russian forces likely entered the village of Vesele in the Pokrovsk direction, and likely captured around 60% of the houses.

The advance from the treelines to the south facilitated the advance over the ponds in the eastern part of the settlement. Ukrainian forces will likely be pushed out within the next few days.

It appears that the retaliatory strikes will not be tonight. I'd say we will see an Iran-like situation where Israel waits 2-3 weeks. Let's wait and see.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced in Krasnohorivka and captured the main part of the city.

Here they advance from multiple directions, forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal from the city park to the northwestern-most residential area. Shortly after this, the Ukrainians were forced out of the northwestern houses to the residential area that stretches westwards for over 4.5km. Ukrainian forces also likely withdrew across the bridge on Konotop'ska street.

The maximum advance of Russian forces was ~1.07km.

A reliable source reported that Russian forces continued to advance along the high-ground and seized new positions near the railway line.

Here, Russian forces reportedly reached the outskirts of the key village of Zhelanne with the northern residential area apparently becoming a contested grey-zone.

Russian forces additionally reportedly advanced in the direction of Serhiivka, and captured a 2.1km long stretch of a treeline and are now just ~1.27km from the village.

I won't add this as "likely advances" to my map yet as only one out of my three most reliable sources has reported on this so far.

Russian forces have likely seized the rest of the Kalynivka tract and crossed the Siversky-Donets canal.

Multiple reliable sources reported that following the seizure and consolidation of the rest of the forests, Russian forces managed to cross the Siversky Donets Canal and entered the first houses of the Zhovtnevyl micro-district of Chasiv Yar.

If the Russians have indeed advanced here and can expand their bridgehead, it would indicate that the fall of the eastern part of Chasiv Yar is imminent as there are only low-rise residential homes in the Novyi and Zhovtnevyl micro-districts.

Report from a Ukrainian source on the situation in Vovchansk:

"Vovchansk. In the northern part of the city, shooting battles and mutual artillery strikes continue. The Russian troops are placing their main emphasis on the block of multi-storey buildings. At the same time, over the last week the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to knock out the enemy from a number of positions along Aviatsionnaya, Torgovaya and Sobornaya streets (based on georeferencing of drone footage)."

This source claims that Ukraine advanced in Vovchansk, however based on earlier geolocations this advance occurred over a month ago.

As for the comment on the block of multi-storey buildings, also known as "The Citadel", it appears to be in a stalemate with Russian forces likely still controlling only three out of the 18 high-rises.

However, knowing Syrskyi's tactics, Ukraine is still likely attacking here but without success.

The meatgrinder continues...

Situation in West Africa (Over the last week)

Mali:
A column of Wagner vehicles was traveling near Tinzawaten at the border with Algeria when it came under fire from CSP forces. After intense exchanges of fire, the Wagner column was forced to turn back. Equipment was left at the site of the confrontation and two helicopters came to carry out evacuations. Four armored vehicles were left behind, three of which were seriously damaged. At least two members of the CSP and at least two mercenaries of Wagner were killed.

The Malian army and Wagner forces captured the town of In-Afarak, near the border with Algeria. This may be connected to the CSP attacks on the Wagner convoy.

JNIM attacked the village of Dembo killing 26 civilians. Livestock and food were taken away by the JNIM forces.

Niger:
ISIS launched the deadliest attack on government forces in Niger’s history. More than 350 heavily armed terrorists attacked a government convoy near Tankadémi on the border with Mali. 237 government forces were reportedly killed in the attack.

Burkina Faso:
The Al-qaeda affiliated group “JNIM” attacked the government allied volunteer militia “VDP” at their base in Bourzanga. At least 8 VDP troops and 1 civilian were killed according to a provisional report. Several JMIN terrorists were also killed.

Map by @Suriyak_maps