There is high activity of Russian reconnaissance drones over Ukraine. We might see a missile strike soon.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian infantry advanced in the Pokrovsk direction and captured the village of Novoselivka Persha. Here they were able to advance from their positions south of the river and seize the southern part of the village, likely by advancing westwards.

The remaining part of the northern half of the village also likely fell to the Russians following the flag raise.

There are now just 2 villages still under Ukrainian control east of the Vovcha river: Mezhove and Skuchne (Both of which only have a few houses each).

7 Tu-95’s and 3 Tu-22’s took off from Olenya airfield around an hour ago. It remains to be seen whether this is a combat mission or not. If it is, this post will be the first in a series of live updates on the missile strikes.

This might be the big one that I’ve been talking about.

3 Tu-22’s landed at Shaykovka airbase. It is likely that this is not a combat mission.

Ukraine is currently under yet another Russian Shahed drone attack. Drones were launched from Crimea and Kursk and are targeting Kherson, Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast. I will make a map of this later today.

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@Middle_East_Spectator

Will update if anything else comes of this

Ukraine is currently under shahed attacks from three different directions. Todays map showing the paths of the drones will be posted later.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced in the direction of Kostyantynivka and likely entered the settlement.

This is one of the largest single mechanised assaults in the history of the war. 11 tanks, 45 armored vehicles, 1 BMPT Terminator, 12 motorcycles and approximately 200 infantry were used, resulting in small gains along two treelines. But multiple sources reported that Russian forces entered the southeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with Russian forces now likely engaged in urban warfare in the residential area.

If the Russians can exploit this potential foothold, they will be able to advance towards the centre of the settlement and force a Ukrainian withdrawal from positions near the reservoir.

Red = Confirmed Russian controlled territory
Yellow = Confirmed Russian advances
Purple = Likely Russian advances

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces continue to advance in a westerly direction and greatly expanded their foothold in Maksymilyanivka.

In mid-June, Russian forces captured the rest of Heorhiivka and advanced to the eastern outskirts of Maksymilyanivka, capturing the easternmost houses and gaining a foothold in the settlement. No footage came out of this area for over a month, until Russian forces restarted offensive operations in mid-late July and captured new positions in the eastern half of the town.

This advance also indicates that Russian forces, possibly supported by BMPs - which have played a key role in the offensive operations here - seized positions in the adjacent treelines. Assaults are also likely underway on the eastern agricultural buildings.

The maximum advance of Russian forces was ~1.05km.

Lashio city in Myanmar has likely fallen to the MDNA rebel forces.

Map by @MyanmarWarMap on twitter

Update from the Pokrovsk direction:

Multiple reliable sources are reporting that Russian forces continue to exploit the localised breakthrough in Prohres and are advancing along the tactical heights southeast of Hrodivka. As the Russians take positions on the railway line, additional infantry expand their control to the adjacent treelines, attackign the outskirts of the villages of Ivanivka and Vesele.

Vovche was also likely captured during a two-day assault from the southwestern part of Prohres, while most of the positions northwest of Novoselivka Persha also likely fell.

Russian forces are also reportedly exploiting the encirclement of Ukrainian forces near Lozuvatske by advancing into the orchards, likely taking up positions near the treelines east of Ivanivka.

Keep in mind that purple on the map indicates likely Russian advances and are not visually confirmed yet.

Reports just came in that Russian forces entered the eastern section of Vesele (Pokrovsk direction) and gained a solid foothold in the village.

Here is my best guess at how the assaults unfolded:

Firstly, Russian infantry likely used the cover of the northwestern windbreak on the railway line to advance while concealing themselves from Ukrainian drones and artillery. As this is a very new part of the frontline, the trees are largely intact, providing excellent cover compared to more static parts of the frontline. This same tactic was employed during the Ocheretyne breakthrough which worked very well for the Russians, which is likely why they are trying it again.

From there, Russian infantry likely advanced along the adjacent treeline which leads directly to the eastern outskirts of Vesele. There is also a perfect "mini treeline" which may have been used as a small staging ground for attacks on the houses. Either way, Russian forces reportedly advanced into the houses, taking up positions, before attacking the treeline to the north of the residential area from another "mini-treeline"

Overall, Russian forces reportedly advanced and gained a foothold in yet another Ukrainian village. Once they get past or around the ponds, assaults will be underway for the main part of Vesele.

Keep in mind that this advance is not confirmed, and only one source has reported on it so far. I will wait for one more reliable source to report on it before adding it to my map as a "likely advance".

Let me know if you want more close-up reports on advances.

While this advance is developing, another one will develop along the railroad and to the south. After passing Prohres the Russians can bypass the Ukrainian defenses located higher up on the west bank of the Vovcha and attack them from the rear (2). This will force a gradual withdrawal of the Ukrainians from these positions towards the defense line around Selydove. Here the presence of two large elevations would complicate a further advance of the Russian troops, so the battles will focus on the localities of Novogrodivka and Hrodivka (3). Their fall will open the doors to a future advance towards the urban agglomerations of Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk (4). However, this will not happen until the arrival of autumn and the slowdown of operations due to bad weather could delay the battle until winter. The war sadly continues.

Approximate paths of today's Russian Shahed drones. Based on preliminary reports, Russia launched 5 Shahed drones at Ukraine over the past 24 hours. The following information is based on reports by Ukrainian monitor and radar telegram channels, as well as Local telegram channels.

The Shahed drones flew over Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Donetsk, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as well as The Sea of Azov and Crimea.

As the Ukrainian air force claimed that only 4 drones were launched, it is likely that one of these drones hit its target. If I had to guess, it would probably be the one near Kupyansk as there is less Ukrainian air defence there.

Following the fall of Urozhaine, Russian forces are consolidating control over their new positions, especially the two trench systems in the northern outskirts of the village.

From there they will likely try to launch flanking attacks on the Ukrainian salient formed to the east of the settlement.

However the main assault will likely take place from both Urozhaine and Staromayorske on both banks of the Mokri Yaly river. This will likely occur after the assaults on the salient which will flatten out the frontline. The primary goal will likely be to capture the village of Makarivka - which was liberated by Ukrainian forces during the failed 2023 counter-offensive - before advancing to the village of Blahodatne on the eastern bank of the river.

This will reform the Vremivka salient and will put pressure on the road that runs through the key logistical hub of Velyka Novosilka.

Expect a Ukrainian withdrawal from the fields behind the reservoirs after the Russians begin attacks along the railway line west of Krasnohorivka.

Ukraine's southern flank is protected by a small river near Maksymalynivka, so the Russians will need to rely solely on the railway line and nearby treelines.

Visual confirmation has come out on a Ukrainian drone attack on Engels air base. This comes as Russia relocated several Tu-95s and Tu-22s here from Olenya air base due to the fear of a Ukrainian drone strike.

It appears that a massive coordinated missile strike is no longer imminent as the goal of the Russians was not to prepare for a missile strike but instead to prepare for a Ukrainian drone strike.

Regarding the situation in Mali:

A column of Wagner vehicles was traveling near Tinzawaten (circled in red) at the border with Algeria when it came under fire from CSP forces. CSP - also known as the Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense and Protection of Azawad - is a coalition of political and military movements that operates in northern Mali.

After intense exchanges of fire, the Wagner column was forced to turn back. Equipment was left at the site of the confrontation and two helicopters came to carry out evacuations. Four armored vehicles were left behind, three of which were seriously damaged. According to preliminary reports, At least two members of the CSP and at least two mercenaries of Wagner were killed.

However today, footage has surfaced appearing to show dozens of dead Wagner mercenaries near their burnt out convoys. This is indicative of a much larger clash that previously thought. It marks a major defeat for Wagner and a setback for Mali government forces.

This will also further increase tensions between the Malian government and allied forces and the rebel militias. Tensions were already high following the battles surrounding Timbuktu in late 2023 and the recent seizure of the village of In-Afarak near the border with Algeria in northern Mali.

More to come.

Map by @Suriyakmaps

Footage has been released reportedly showing the moment CSP forces attacked the Wagner convoy.

Israeli warplanes are being reported over Beirut. I will update if anything comes of it.