Now that the last two roads out of Velyka Novosilka have come under control or fire control of Russian forces, many would expect Ukraine to begin the process of withdrawing.

Do not expect this to happen. They are going to fight for as long as physically possible here. It won't matter if the Russians are 10km or 1km away from closing the pocket, the AFU will try to hold on.

This is a very sensitive part of the frontline for Ukraine. Just south of Velyka Novosilka was one of the few areas where Ukraine made progress in their failed 2023 counteroffensive. Velyka Novosilka was also the Vuhledar of Westernmost Donetsk as the Russians repeatedly failed to seize the town in 2022-2023. It is a stronghold and is very important to the Ukrainian command.

The loss of Velyka Novosilka will also be a strategic win for Russia as the town lies at the intersection of multiple roads, making it an important logistical hub which Russia can and will exploit in the future to make gains into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the rest of Western Donetsk Oblast.

Speaking of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Velyka Novosilka is the gateway to the region, with only a few villages in the way. Entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast opens up a new front in this war into a previously largely untouched region of Ukraine.

All of this plus Ukraine's notorious track record of finding itself in dangerous salients point towards another situation similar to that in Avdiivka and Kurakhove.

So, I repeat - do not expect a Ukrainian withdrawal anytime soon.

The videos circulating of Ukrainian soldiers in residential parts of Kurakhove claiming "city defence" are days to weeks old. There is currently no Ukrainian presence in the main part of the city. However, a garrison is holding positions in the Thermal Power Plant.

A Russian cargo plane that departed from Novosibirsk arrived at the Alar airbase in the capital of Myanmar, Naypyidaw. According to Burmese sources, the cargo included military equipment and spare parts for the military Junta.

In Kursk Oblast, Russian forces have reportedly begun assault operations from Russkoe Porechnoe in an attempt to cut off the Ukrainian formations in the forestS indicated in the blue polygon.

Continued clashes in Tartous between HTS fighters and what is apparently remnants of the SAA.

A MiG-31K departed from Privolzhsky airbase. The MiG-31K can carry a Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

Explosions in Sumy. A Russian KAB glide bomb struck the city.

A residential building is burning in the West Bank city of Jenin after the Palestinian Authority fired RPGs at it.

Israeli airstrikes reportedly targeted the airport in the Yemeni capital of Sana'a.

SNA forces have reportedly launched an offensive on the SDF stronghold city of Dair Hafr.

Unconfirmed reports of an F-16 being shot down in the Zaporizhzhia direction while being in the launch process.

Smoke is rising from the international airport in Sana'a. There are reports that the Air traffic control tower and multiple aircraft were destroyed.

There are also additional reports of Israeli airstrikes on Hodeida.

Sana'a international airport.

Explosions in Kharkiv. Likely KAB glide bomb attacks.

All 4 of Moscow's international airports have been shut to "ensure the safety of flights". There are no drones recorded in the area at the time of writing.

Reports of widespread power outages in Sana'a after Israeli airstrikes targeted a power station.

The moment of an Israeli airstrike on Sana'a.

The Lebanese army has announced that one of its soldiers was injured in a clash with unknown gunmen from Syria on the border between the two countries.

The moment Israeli airstrikes targeted Sana’a International Airport.