Former U.S. special representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad: "There are initial reports of heavy Pakistani air attacks in Bermel district in Paktika. If true, the Taliban will likely respond."

The last Tu-95 landed at Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast. Meanwhile, the strategic comms activity was short-lived, and has stopped for the time being.

Repeated radio activity of Russian Strategic comms was recorded. If there is a strike tonight, it probably won’t be huge, due to the relatively small number of equipped Tu-95ms aircraft at Olenya airbase.

Merry Christmas to those who celebrate it!

Between 4 and 9 Tu-95s are currently airborne. They departed from Olenya airbase in Murmansk Oblast and are about halfway to the launch lines in the Engels area of Saratov Oblast.

There are also Kalibr missile carriers that were deployed to the Black Sea. There is currently a total possible salvo of up to 24 Kalibr Cruise missiles.

The approximate location of the Tu-95ms strategic aircraft. They have just entered Kostroma Oblast and are continuing their flight towards the launch lines in Saratov Oblast.

There are 4 confirmed Tu-95s airborne right now, however that number could be higher.

3-4 Tu-95ms aircraft departed from Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast. There are now at least 7 Tu-95s airborne.

This is likely going to be combined strike involving two groups of Tu-95ms aircraft as well as Kalibr missile carriers in the Black Sea.

Approximate situation with the Russian Tu-95ms strategic aircraft.

Launch maneuvers were carried out.

The Tu-95s continue to move south to the Caspian Sea. They will probably conduct a launch maneuver there too.

Another launch maneuver was carried out, this time in the Caspian area. The chances are the first launch maneuver was simulated. We won’t see missiles for at least an hour.

Unconfirmed reports of Kalibr cruise missile launches from The Black Sea.

A third launch maneuver was carried out by the Tu-95ms aircraft.

More Kalibrs were launched, this time from the Gelendzhik area of Krasnodar Krai.

If the first Kalibr launches were real, then we should see missiles in the next few minutes.

1st group of Kalibrs entered Ukrainian airspace via Kherson Oblast.

Actions were noted which could suggest the take-off of a MiG-31K in the near future. The MiG-31K can carry the Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

Threat of ballistics from Voronezh Oblast