I think Assad's days in power are numbered

The question is, will there be a coup before Damascus falls. I think this is a possibility as the military increasingly sees their leader as incompetent. I mean, the advances in the past week have been crazy. The SAA went from very clearly having the upper-hand in pretty much every direction to being on the verge of collapse in all directions. This will have obviously dealt some major blows to morale. Parts of the SAA may take it out on Assad.

I guess time will tell.

The situation in the SAA-affiliated telegram channels is a bit reminiscent of many of the ultra Pro-Ukrainian channels. Clinging onto small pieces of hope and posting about every good thing that happens for their side, eg. every airstrike. Some are still denying the reality of the situation and how dire it is for the SAA.

Now I won't say that it's 100% certain that Assad will fall. Syria has been in similar situations in 2013 and 2016, but I will say that this does seem different.

Unconfirmed reports of SAA withdrawals from a number of locations in the Damascus Governorate following FSA advances.

Dozens of Syrian troops enter Iraq at Al-Qaim border crossing in coordination with Iraqi forces —— Reuters

Rusaia is continuing to prepare for another large-scale missile attack on Ukraine.

A short while ago, two more Tu-95ms aircraft flew from Olenya airbase in Murmansk Oblast to Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast, presumably to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They will probably return to Olenya airbase within the next 48 hours.

Additionally, two Il-76 military transport aircraft landed at Engels-2 airbase, with the cargo most likely including Kh-101 cruise missiles.

There are quite a lot of reports of uprisings occurring across the Damascus Governorate ahead of the FSA and HTS advance. There isn’t much evidence of this yet, so I’ll wait for some more confirmation before adding it to the map.

The suburbs of Damascus right now… this is insane.

FSA has entered Damascus, linking up with the uprisings in the suburbs. The battle for the city has officially begun.

I’m gonna catch a few hours of sleep and hope that Syria doesn’t collapse in that period of time. I’ll be back online and reporting later.

Homs has fallen, the coast has been isolated. A last stand will be made at Damascus.

Another Tu-95 took off from Engels-2 airbase and is flying north to Olenya airbase, presumably for redeployment purposes.

Around 8 hours ago, another Tu-95 redeployed from Engels-2 airbase to Olenya airbase.

Approximate situation in Syria as of the time of writing.

— ❗️🇸🇾 NEW: The Syrian Arab Army 'practically no longer exists', its command structure is 'completely disintegrated', none of them are likely to fight, with the exception of some remaining Assad loyalist militias and local defense units in Damascus.' – Pro-SAA Reporter in Damascus

@Middle_East_Spectator

The fall of Assad might happen in the next few hours.

There are reports of FSA tanks on the streets of Damascus.

Unconfirmed reports of scattered clashes in the Al-Midan suburbs of Damascus, less than 5km from the presidential palace.

All flights at the Damascus International Airport have been cancelled.

Took them long enough...

Heavy gunfire reported in Damascus city centre.

Give it a few minutes, and any remaining scattered fighting will dissipate. Damascus has essentially fallen.

Reports of continued mass defections and evacuations of SAA soldiers in Damascus.