Regarding the Russian casualty "leaks".
As with any leak from either side, there is simply no way to verify if this is true or not. These are just numbers, with no evidence. If you are going to blindly trust a "leak" of Russian casualties, then I would expect you to apply that same (lack of) logic to "leaks" of Ukrainian casualties.
The only thing that makes this seem slightly more plausible to be real compared to previous leaks is that it largely lines up with Mediazona's figures when extrapolated based on its delays in reporting for 2025 and 2026. I previously estimated that both Ukraine and Russia have likely suffered around 500,000-600,000 KIA. This "leaked" data estimates that there are around 504,000 KIA based on the delay of death records to be sent in.
However, even though it lines up well, this does not confirm or even indicate these leaks are real. This can easily be faked just to legitimise the extrapolation that many have done of Mediazona's data, where the statistics become a bit more murky compared to their "absolute minimum" of 286,000 KIA death records.
This doesn't change the fact that these numbers, in my opinion, are likely somewhat accurate for the real death toll. But I think it's important to not just blindly assume that any release of casualty data are automatically 100% legitimate and official numbers.
As with any leak from either side, there is simply no way to verify if this is true or not. These are just numbers, with no evidence. If you are going to blindly trust a "leak" of Russian casualties, then I would expect you to apply that same (lack of) logic to "leaks" of Ukrainian casualties.
The only thing that makes this seem slightly more plausible to be real compared to previous leaks is that it largely lines up with Mediazona's figures when extrapolated based on its delays in reporting for 2025 and 2026. I previously estimated that both Ukraine and Russia have likely suffered around 500,000-600,000 KIA. This "leaked" data estimates that there are around 504,000 KIA based on the delay of death records to be sent in.
However, even though it lines up well, this does not confirm or even indicate these leaks are real. This can easily be faked just to legitimise the extrapolation that many have done of Mediazona's data, where the statistics become a bit more murky compared to their "absolute minimum" of 286,000 KIA death records.
This doesn't change the fact that these numbers, in my opinion, are likely somewhat accurate for the real death toll. But I think it's important to not just blindly assume that any release of casualty data are automatically 100% legitimate and official numbers.
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Ballistic missile launches from Yemen to the Saudi capital Riyadh
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Some interesting comparison maps I made.
These compare the Russian and Ukrainian MoD maps (Deepstate is pretty much the de facto Ukrainian MoD map now), as well as two independent neutral mappers (Suriyak and I) on the Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donbas axes.
Each line represents the forward zone of Russian control shown by each map.
These compare the Russian and Ukrainian MoD maps (Deepstate is pretty much the de facto Ukrainian MoD map now), as well as two independent neutral mappers (Suriyak and I) on the Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donbas axes.
Each line represents the forward zone of Russian control shown by each map.
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AMK Mapping
Ballistic missile launches from Yemen to the Saudi capital Riyadh
Reports of explosions in Riyadh.
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AMK Mapping
Reports of explosions in Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia claims two Ansarallah ballistic missiles were shot down near Riyadh.
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Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast. New photos from the city as winter approaches.
More than 20,000 civilians remain.
More than 20,000 civilians remain.
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Two large craters formed in the "Northern" Bridge over the Dnieper River in Kyiv, as a result of yesterday's Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile strikes.
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AMK Mapping
Reports of explosions in Riyadh.
An Ansarallah ballistic missile directly impacted the ARAMCO oil company Tower in the centre of Riyadh, despite claims by Saudi Arabia of interceptions.
Reuters previously confirmed that a tower in the Saudi capital's Financial District was damaged.
Reuters previously confirmed that a tower in the Saudi capital's Financial District was damaged.
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Russian Geran-4 jet-drones attacked Odesa and Dnipro in the last hour.
In Odesa, a logistics centre was hit.
In Odesa, a logistics centre was hit.
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At least two Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers are conducting training exercises from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East.
These were two of the aircraft which partook in the most recent massive missile attack on Ukraine using strategic aviation. They will presumably not be re-equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles for at least another week.
These were two of the aircraft which partook in the most recent massive missile attack on Ukraine using strategic aviation. They will presumably not be re-equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles for at least another week.
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For the last 30 minutes, Ukraine has been repeatedly shelling the Shebekino and Belgorod Districts of Belgorod Oblast, as well as the Pogar District of Bryansk Oblast, with long-range MLRS, including possibly HIMARS rockets.
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