One fairly well-established fact about the Chasiv Yar salient is that it, alongside the strongpoints near Mykolaipillya (west of Kostyantynivka), were the only reason why Russia has been unable to fully capture Kostyantynivka so far.

Once the remaining Ukrainian forces withdraw from the cluster of villages west of Chasiv Yar, Russia will be able to fully consolidate in the northwestern and northern parts of Kostyantynivka, and begin storming operations on Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka.

As a result of Russian advances in the Slovyansk direction over the last week, and the fall of the last remaining Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar, Russia has officially established full control over the Bakhmut District of Donetsk Oblast.

As of now, Russia fully controls 5 out of 8 administrative Districts of Donetsk Oblast, including the Mariupol, Kalmiuske, Horlivka, Donetsk, and now Bakhmut Districts.

The remaining 3 districts of Donetsk Oblast are contested. Ukraine controls approximately 70% of the Kramatorsk District, 25% of the Pokrovsk District, and 4% of the Volnovakha District.

Come on, New York Post, don’t you have anything better to do?

But somehow the presence of a single Russian soldier with a flag means they fully control a settlement 🤣🤣

Situation on the Dobropillya direction, Donetsk Oblast:

Over the last 10 days, Russian forces continued their offensive operations on Dobropillya, where they have made new advances in multiple different areas, while carrying out deep infiltrations behind Ukrainian lines.

In the northeast, Russian forces improved their positions in the treelines north of Nove Shakhove and continued infiltrations into the nearby dachas. Other assault groups expanded their infiltrations in the dachas on the eastern outskirts of Hannivka, with some small groups of infiltrators entering the eastern part of the village. Russian DRGs have also begun operating north of Dobropillya along the Dobropillya - Kramatorsk Highway and are approaching the city of Bilozerke, in a series of unprecedented deep penetrations behind Ukrainian lines.

To the southwest, the Russians continued infiltrations down the railway line and have entered the southeastern-most streets of Dobropillya in small numbers. The situation for Ukraine near Bilytske is deteriorating as Russian forces expand their zone of infiltration within the city, while DRGs penetrate further west into the villages of Chernihivka and Vodyanske.

Further southwest, Russian forces intensified their attacks along the railway line northwest of Rodynske towards the former Vodyanske Mine, and deepened their infiltrations into the village of Shevchenko.

To the west, after bringing in reinforcements, the Russians intensified their assault operations north along the treelines north of Novooleksandrivka and Vasylivka towards Novohryshyne and Matyasheve. They also advanced in the treelines west of the Hrishynka River towards the forest southeast of Hulive, while other assault groups continue infiltration attempts from the east.

To the south, Russian forces cleared the fields northwest of Kotlyne from earlier Ukrainian infiltrations and expanded their infiltrations towards Serhiivka from the southeast.

+ ~12.35 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map: amkmapping.com

Because of these unprecedented Russian DRG infiltrations north of Dobropillya, up to 10.5 km from the nearest Russian zone of control, one of two main logistical routes leading into the city - the Kramatorsk-Dobropillya Highway - is now effectively unusable.

Until Ukraine is able to clear out these DRGs, they will be forced to only use the Novodonetske-Dobropillya Highway further west, which Russian DRGs are also very close to, or other smaller dirt roads. This creates a sort of "funnelling" effect, with a higher concentration of Ukrainian movement down this one main road, providing more targets for Russian FPV drones.

What's also notable is the Russian DRG infiltrations into the southeastern parts of Dobropillya, as well as the infiltration of multiple small assault groups into the eastern part of Hannivka, just east of the city, which ties up limited Ukrainian resources that could be used to help defend against intensified Russian offensive operations elsewhere in this sector.

VERY unusual reports coming out of Ukrainian military-linked monitoring channels just now, with warnings of a possible IRANIAN medium-range ballistic missile attack on Ukraine in the next 24 hours.

This comes after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Ukraine's attack on an Iranian-linked vessel in the Caspian Sea a few days ago "cannot go unanswered".

As of now, these reports are very preliminary. I'm not convinced anything will happen, but I'm just putting the information out there so people are aware.

Confirmed.

The validity, at least

I spoke to four different sources knowledgeable about this matter. The threat from Iran was issued by the Ukrainian GUR, notifying the military of this potential threat.

The threat is related to a launch site near the city of Tabriz, northwestern Iran. The report states that up to three medium-range ballistic missiles could be launched at military infrastructure facilities in Kyiv some time in the next 48 hours.

One source told me it's "widely expected internally”, presumably due to the Ukrainian attack on an Iranian-linked vessel in the Caspian Sea.

This confirms the intelligence report's validity beyond simple rumours, however, I still SERIOUSLY doubt anything will actually happen. This seems like a precautionary measure to me, rather than a genuine threat. But we will see, I suppose.

Keep in mind, this post is NOT meant to spread hype or misinformation. It is simply information that I have received from sources who have been reliable in the past.

I will update further if anything else comes of this.

Going to sleep now.

Will update on any developments regarding this matter in the morning.

Gn!