Approximate flight routes of the missiles used in tonight's large-scale Russian combined attack on Kyiv Oblast.

The following was launched:

~8 RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles from near Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.

~7 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from near Klintsy and Pochep, Bryansk Oblast.

~6 Iskander-K cruise missiles from near Fatezh, Kursk Oblast.

~21 missiles in total.

Of these 21 missiles, 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles were shot down. None of the ballistic missiles were intercepted due to Ukraine having effectively run out of Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, although 6 out of 8 of the RM-48U missiles missed their target due to their low accuracy.

The following was struck:

- CHP-4 Combined Heat and Power Plant in eastern Kyiv by ~2 RM-48U S-400s.

- "Western" 330 kV electrical substation west of Kyiv by ~2 Iskander-Ms and ~3 Iskander-Ks.

- Unknown (probably industrial) target in western Kyiv by ~5 Iskander-Ms.

- 6 of the RM-48U missiles seemingly missed their target and fell in areas surrounding the CHP-4 Power Plant in eastern Kyiv.

Footage showing the moment of a Russian Iskander-K cruise missile strike on a building in Irpin, Kyiv Oblast.

It seems something other than the substation there was also hit.

These last 5 days, taking advantage of the Starshield speed restriction (which doesn't seem to end), Russia 🇷🇺 sent thousands of drones against Ukraine 🇺🇦

Russia launched a continuous flow of Geran-4/5 drones (blue on the map), as usual, as well as a large number of Geran-2 (yellow), which are slower and flying in large groups. Hundreds of targets were struck in the country, including many civilian ones.

For the first time in months, western Ukraine was heavily targeted with repeated strikes in Lutsk, Kovel, Rivne and other cities. The trend is very worrying, since drones can move nearly everywhere in the country and threaten energy infrastructure, industries and warehouses. I will soon update on the strikes on Kyiv and western Ukraine.

Source of the maps: t.me/StrategicaviationT

This map is incomplete and probably only shows a little over half of the drones used, but it gives a good idea how how intense the drone attacks have been lately.

The situation in the Orikhiv direction for Ukraine has improved significantly in the last two weeks, following the arrival of large-scale reinforcements in the form of the 7th Rapid Response Corps from the Dobropillya direction.

It's likely that the remaining Russian positions in the outermost southeast streets of the city will be cleared in the next week. At least half of Mala Tokmachka is also under Ukrainian control (the town never fell in the first place, contrary to reports). Some positions in Novodanylivka have also been restored (also never fully occupied in the first place).

In response, Russia attempted a mechanised assault on Novodanylivka yesterday, using the cover of fog, probably to try bring in new assault groups to subsequently re-enter Orikhiv (similar tactic to what occurred in the Dobropillya direction with the mechanised assault in July). Ukrainian channels claim the majority of equipment was destroyed and most soldiers killed, however this remains unconfirmed. Ukrainian drones are actively trying to hunt down the Russian infantry who dismounted in Novodanylivka and are trying to accumulate.

However, as expected, the redeployment of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps from Dobropillya to the Orikhiv direction (where it primarily operates northeast of Orikhiv), has contributed to the deteriorating situation for Ukraine in the Dobropillya direction. It's expected Russia will continue prioritising advancing in the Dobropillya direction over the Kramatorsk and Orikhiv sectors, at least for the next few weeks.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Yurkivka, Slovyansk direction, Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk District).

Pre-war population: ~34.
Total land area: ~0.46 km².

Zelensky claims that the U.S. failed to warn Ukraine of the ballistic missile attack last night.

This doesn't appear to be true.

Not only did Ukraine receive advance warning of the attack up to 24 hours beforehand, but Ukrainian SBU-affiliated channels reported that western satellites alerted Ukraine of the ballistic threat when launcher activity was detected in Bryansk Oblast, noting that the warnings "are coming in time".

Ukraine's energy minister reports that Russia attacked energy facilities across Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, Ternopil, Odesa, and Rivne Oblasts, overnight.

Bad weather has also left 140 settlements across Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Odesa Oblasts without power. New emergency power outages have been implemented in some regions due to the recent attacks.

There was heavy fighter jet activity over western Iran and eastern Iraq earlier tonight.

Sources in western Iran told me they heard 20-30 fighter jets flying at low altitude near the border with Iraq, however they were unsure if the aircraft were Iranian or Israeli. It was likely a mix of both.

Mud season has begun in the Vovchansk direction.

Russian channel Romanov claims that the intensity of Ukrainian mid-range drone strikes on Russian logistics along the land bridge from Rostov to Crimea has significantly decreased over the last 48 hours, with reportedly only one vehicle being hit today.

He attributes this alleged decrease to the recent restrictions imposed on the Starshield system.

The IRGC claims that it's air defences shot down a U.S. MQ-9 "Reaper" drone over the Strait of Hormuz this morning - reportedly the 54th so far.

The Saudi-led Coalition’s Joint Forces have released footage showing Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) airstrikes targeting boats and vehicles allegedly involved in smuggling weapons and equipment to Ansar Allah (Houthis) through organized criminal networks.

The IDF claims that two Palestinians planning an attack and operating to establish militant infrastructure were arrested during a raid in the Kafr 'Aqab area of East Jerusalem.

Mykolaiv City came under attack from Russian Geran-2 drones and Geran-4 jet-drones tonight, resulting in fires breaking out in the city.

Around a dozen drones were used in two different waves.

The Michurinsk Plant "Progress" in Tambov Oblast is reportedly under attack from Ukrainian long-range drones, resulting in a large fires breaking out.

The plant produces various types of high-tech equipment for control systems for aviation and missile technology, as well as a wide range of electrical equipment.

Russia continues to actively equip their strategic bombers with Kh-101 cruise missiles ahead of their next large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

Two Tu-160M strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East. At least one of these aircraft is equipped with 10 missiles. A third Tu-160M is currently in the air from Ukrainka Airbase, redeploying to Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast to be equipped with Kh-101s, before subsequently returning to Ukrainka. This will presumably be the third and final Tu-160M to be prepared for the upcoming attack.

It's also expected that around 6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are in the process of being equipped with missiles at Ukrainka Airbase, although some may also make a similar flight to Engels-2 Airbase later on.

In my opinion, there will be at least one more medium-sized ballistic missile attack (potentially targeting Kyiv) before this attack involving strategic aviation. Russia has continued delivering new batches of Iskander-M ballistic missiles to Bryansk Oblast, and has probably also delivered more Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles and Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles to Kursk and Rostov Oblast. As I reported a week ago, the attack involving strategic aviation will likely take place towards the end of October.