Unfortunately, it is now October and my horrendous prediction has come back to bite me.

I originally predicted on the April 28th that Slovyansk would fall by October. I reiterated to AMK on June 4th that i still had this prediction.

I am, in fact, embarrassed.

The Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement regarding their overnight strikes on Ukraine.

In Kyiv City, they claim to have struck a logistics centre where a workshop used to produce drone-boats was located.

In Odesa Oblast, the MoD claims that a data centre was hit, along with a barge allegedly used to transport military equipment and dual-purpose cargo at Chornomorsk Port.

NASA FIRMS data indicates that a large fire is burning at the Ostrava Recreation Centre on the Arabat Spit in Crimea, following overnight Ukrainian drone strikes.

This facility is reportedly used as a base by the Russian military.

@WarUnitObserver reports that Russia has expanded their 4th Motor Rifle Brigade into the new 84th Motor Rifle Division, as it's manpower levels exceed that of a brigade and pass even other divisions.

The newly restructured unit now reportedly consists of 4 Motor Rifle Battalions, 1 Rifle Battalion, 1 Territorial Defence Battalion, 1 Tank Battalion, 2 Assault Companies, 1 Assault Detachment, 1 Reconnaissance Company, 1 UAV unit, 1 Howitzer Self-Propelled Artillery Battalion, and 1 Anti-Aircraft Missile Battalion.

The 84th Division currently operates in Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, and has remained in this general direction since early-mid 2023.

Credit: https://x.com/WarUnitObserver/status/2105529733794398316

Russian Geran-4 jet-drones struck four more dry cargo ships, including three in the western Black Sea and one at Chornomorsk Port in Odesa Oblast.

I think Russia has probably overtaken Ukraine's 40-day operation in the number of drone strikes on ships by now.

Two Russian Tu-160M strategic bombers departed from Ukrainka Airbase around 4 hours ago, and are currently flying west to the Caspian Sea.

It's likely that this is a training mission, but there is a small chance they launch Kh-101 cruise missiles in the next 2 hours.

There is also a threat of Kalibr cruise missile launches from Buyan-M corvettes in the Caspian Sea.

However, it's possible that this is all happening as a part of the "Centre-2026" exercises at the Chebarkulsky Training Ground.

2 MiG-31K fighter jets are also airborne. They took off from Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast, presumably also for the "Centre-2026" exercises.

There's also a Tu-22m3 strategic bomber airborne from Olenya Airbase, flying to Akhtubinsk for the same purpose.

❗️Russia may carry out a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight.

According to available information, Russia has accumulated at least 30 ground-based missiles of various types, including Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles, Kn-23 ballistic missiles, and Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles. About a third of these missiles are Kn-23 ballistics.

In Bryansk Oblast (Klintsy, Bryansk City, & Pochep), Iskander-Ms and RM-48Us are present.

In Kursk Oblast (Fatezh, Manturovo, & Zheleznogorsk), Oniks and Zircons are present.

In Voronezh Oblast (Liski & Novovornezh), Kn-23s are present.

In Rostov Oblast (Millerovo & Taganrog), Zircons and Iskander-Ms are present.

The highest threat is to Kyiv City, Dnipro, and Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast). Potential targets include thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants in Kyiv and Dnipro (CHP-4/5/6 TPPs, Trypillya TPP, Prydniprovska TPP, Kyiv HPP, Dniprodzerzhynsk HPP), as well as the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery and the Kremenchuk TPP.

If the attack does take place, Geran-4 and Geran-5 jet-drones will also be used.

There is also a possibility of Kalibr cruise missiles being launched from Buyan-M corvettes in the Caspian Sea, although this information may be related to the ongoing "Centre-2026" exercises, rather than a potential attack.

Strategic bombers will not partake in this attack.

The highest threat is from 11pm to 3:30am (Kyiv Time).

The information provided is preliminary and unconfirmed. There is no guarantee that an attack will indeed take place, just an increased threat.

Yesterday, a Ukrainian MiG-29 of the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade was shot down by a Russian R-37/77 air-to-air missile launched by a Su-35 fighter jet.

The pilot, 25-year-old Captain Mambetov Marat Redvanovich, ejected after the aircraft was hit, but did not survive.

The MiG-29 was likely shot down near the village of Dolynske in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 1:16pm, after it was returning from a combat mission to launch glide-bombs at Russian positions in the Orikhiv direction. A Russian Su-35 which was circling in the area of Mykhailivka, Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Oblast, at the time, and launched two R-37M air-to-air missiles. An explosion was heard in Dolynske, likely from the aircraft being shot down.

If events played out how I think they did, this should be how the situation occurred.

1:10pm: The Ukrainian MiG-29 launches glide-bombs at Russian positions in the Orikhiv direction, and then flies west.

11:12: The MiG-29 is heard flying west over Zaporizhzhia City.

11:13: The Russian Su-35 launches two R-37M air-to-air missiles from near Mykhailivka, Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

11:14: An explosion is heard near Dolynka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as the MiG-29 is shot down.