(...)

Since then, Ukrainian forces managed re-enter Rai-Oleksandrivka and recaptured the majority of the town, entrenching in the treelines to the southeast as well, and began pushing east through the forest north of the town towards Kalenyky. This counteroffensive is being supported by a large number of FPV drone strikes on Russian logistics the Siversk area, especially on logistics flowing west of the city. Even more intense strikes on Russian logistics are occuring in the Lyman direction, targeting supply vehicles up to 150 km behind the frontline.

+ ~190.80 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map: amkmapping.com

Imagine they re-enter Bilohorivka lmao

Crazy how I went from being a Russian propagandist to being a Ukrainian propagandist within a day lmao

Someone needs to turn this into the pro-Russian version of the pro-Ukrainian "X city is no longer strategically important" cope chart.

Explosions are heard in Kyiv.

The city is once again under attack from Russian Geran-4 jet-drones.

Closer-up view of the situation in the Lyman direction - Torske sector:

Ukrainian assault groups are currently infiltrating down several different routes towards the Zherebets River, trying to establish control over its western bank and complete clearing operations in the village of Zarichne.

From the direction of the eastern Masliakivka District of Lyman, they are moving east through the northern part of the forests towards the northern part of the remaining Russian bridgehead over the Zherebets river, attacking it from the northwest and infiltrating north into the southern part of Zarichne, where they are in the process of consolidating a foothold.

From the direction of the southeastern "triangle" of Lyman, at the highway intersection, they are moving east along the railway line, and, after capturing the various strongpoints along the way, they are attempting to clear the area of the railway overpass, while some other assault groups bypass it to attack the Russian bridgehead over the Zherebets River from the west. These advances are being supported by a separate infiltration route originating from Dibrova.

From the direction of Ozerne, Ukrainian forces are infiltrating northeast through Yampil, and are working to clear the remaining Russian positions in the central and eastern parts of the town, while some other assault groups continue infiltrating north towards the Russian bridgehead which they are now attacking from the south.

The main issue for Ukraine will be the two large areas in the forests where there are very few positions. While they do largely exercise control over these areas now, they are very prone to future Russian infiltration which would significantly disrupt the movement of assault groups and reinforcements, especially if Ukraine is unable to eliminate the Russian bridgehead.

For now, the main Ukrainian goal appears to be to clear this remaining Russian bridgehead, recapture the main part of Yampil, and possibly begin probing operations on Torske, while the main assault force attempts to complete clearing operations in Zarichne, where Russian forces maintain control over the town centre and still hold some positions in other parts of the settlement in the grey-zone.

Nevertheless, the advances already made has now fully re-opened the possibility of Ukraine funnelling reinforcements south across the Siverskyi Donets River into the area east of Mykolaivka and Slovyansk, flanking the Russian positions from the north, which they have already been doing with quite a lot of success.

Closer-up view of the situation in the Lyman direction - Zarichne sector:

Ukrainian assault groups are currently conducting a three-pronged attack on the village of Zarichne, in an attempt at eliminating the Russian bridgehead west of the Zherebets River.

From the south, they are pushing north from their previously captured positions in the forests east of Lyman into the southern part of Zarichne, where a small foothold was recently established. They are attempting to further consolidate these positions and infiltrate further north towards the centre of Zarichne.

This attack is being supported by ongoing infiltrations into the village from the east. Ukrainian forces are moving along the Lyman-Zarichne Road into the small industrial zone on the southwestern edge of the village, where heavy fighting is ongoing. They are also infiltrating east along the newly-recaptured Pynkov Gulley, and entering the western part of Zarichne, although no foothold has been established yet.

In the north, the Ukrainian advance has stalled. They were able to consolidate their earlier foothold in the northern streets of Zarichne, and captured the agricultural buildings on the northwestern outskirts, but have so far been unable to reach the centre of the settlement due to fierce Russian resistance and good coordination between Russian drone operators and artillery crews, who are inflicting heavy casualties on the advancing Ukrainian assault groups. The earlier Ukrainian attempts to cross the Zherebets River and entrench in the area of the Torske Fish Farm were repelled, and their attempts have been seemingly halted for the last few days.

With these major Ukrainian advances in the Lyman & Slovyansk directions, monthly frontline km² changes are gonna look crazy for September.

Obviously, as I've always said, this is a war of attrition, where success is measured in attrition dealt to your enemy relative to his size. Km² advances on the side inflicting the higher levels of attrition (Russia) are typically a biproduct of that successful attrition.

But its undoubtable that Ukraine's successes here have been a mix of extreme incompetence by the Russian Zapad command, and a very well-planned and executed operation by the Ukrainian command, who has long evolved from the hard lessons learned during the 2023 counteroffensive and the Kursk operation.

These Ukrainian advances will delay the battle for Slovyansk by at least several months (and Kramatorsk by extension, as both cities would likely have to be taken simultaneously in my opinion), and will prevent Russia from re-entering Lyman (let alone capturing it) for some time, resulting in many more Russian casualties that will be suffered in the future. The southern Ukrainian bridgehead east of the Oskil River is also now safe from being cut off from the south, and Svyatohirsk has been re-established as a safe, rear logistical hub for the Lyman direction, as it is now around 25 km from the nearest Russian-controlled territory.

In turn, I think we can expect an intensification of Russian offensive operations towards Druzhkivka and Dobropillya, with the eventual goal of developing a large left flank to Kramatorsk, cutting off the main highways leading into the city from the west. I also advise you all to keep an eye out on Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, and Chernihiv Oblast, the latter of which may see some cross-border incursions soon aimed at stretching limited Ukrainian manpower.

The Russian presence in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is at risk of disappearing. 🇺🇦🇷🇺
The blocking of Starlink and the shortage of troops in the Vostok Group (due to the redeployment of troops to other fronts) have led to a decline in Russian territorial control in that oblast from 420 square kilometers in early January to just 70 square kilometers by the end of September.
This has pushed the fighting back to the borders of the Donetsk front and even several kilometers further inland, jeopardizing positions captured by the Russians in the first half of 2025.
It would not be surprising if the Russian presence (understood as solid control) were to end soon. As I mentioned in June, the countermeasures to resolve the Starlink blockade would last until the end of the year, so there are at least three difficult months ahead for the Russian armed forces in the south (even despite the advances in Orikhiv).

Life goes on in the town of Novodonetske, Donetsk Oblast, as Russian FPV drones hover overhead.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump has rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and plans to resume his bombing campaign against Iran after the November midterms.

The Pentagon has quietly added 37 new injured personnel to their tally of casualties caused by the war with Iran today, increasing the total to 861.

The new casualties reported include 29 U.S. sailors and 8 Marines.

KAB glide-bombs to Mykolaiv Oblast.

Flying to Tsentralne. A reconnaissance drone is operating in the area, and will film and adjust the strikes.

They are flying further to Mykolaiv City. 5 km away.

Explosions were heard in Mykolaiv City.

Another Su-34 will likely launch KAB glide-bombs at Mykolaiv shortly.

Edit: More KABs are flying to Mykolaiv city now