The Ukrainian command has sent reinforcements to Orikhiv to try stabilise the rapidly deteriorating situation.

It's unclear which sector of the frontline they were pulled from. Perhaps the Komar direction.

A Su-35 is trying to shoot down a Ukrainian tactical aircraft in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with an R-37/77 air-to-air missile.

The Ukrainian aircraft was launching glide-bombs at Kostyantynivka.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Maliivka, Pokrovsk'ke direction, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove District).

Pre-war population: ~163.
Total land area: ~1.27km².

The second battle for Maliivka lasted approximately 1 month, 20 days.

Russian forces have captured the village of Chervone, Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk District).

Pre-war population: ~269.
Total land area: ~1.35 km².

The battle for Chervone lasted approximately 3 months, 20 days.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Zapadne, Kupyansk direction, Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk District).

Pre-war population: ~350.
Total land area: ~1.17 km².

The second battle for Zapadne lasted less than one month.

The pro-Russians are right btw. I am paid by the SBU.

+7000 Hryvnia today

Edit: the stars being donated on this post are from Budanov

Drone alert northern Israel.

Interceptors were launched.

Today, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk made a very interesting and rather surprising claim about Ukrainian casualties. In this post, I will analyse this statement and apply some related statistics to get a clearer picture on the current manpower situation within the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

According to Tusk, due to new Russian tactics and improved technical capabilities, Ukraine's casualties have increased to around 27,000 killed and wounded per month. He says that this information came from Poland's "partners from Ukraine".

Is this claim true? Well, you may remember that Budanov stated in August that Ukraine would need to mobilise 30,000 soldiers per month in order to maintain the current strength of it's armed forces. This gives a lot of credibility to Tusk's claim of 27,000 Ukrainian casualties per month. Additionally, with Poland being an ally of Ukraine (regardless of what people say about their cultural/historical tensions), Tusk has no incentive to lie about such a high number that directly contradicts the ludicrous claims made by Zelensky.

While we don't know the monthly casualty rate before August, if we were to assume that it has been 27,000 per month on average for the entirety of the war, it would give us a figure of about 1.46 million.

Do I think that 1.46 million is the true casualty count for Ukraine? No. I think it's less, and that Ukrainian casualties have increased since the failed 2023 summer counteroffensive and the rapid increase in glide-bomb and drone usage by Russia.

However, for the longest time, I have estimated that Ukraine and Russia's casualties are MUCH closer to 1:1 than either side wants to admit, probably with Ukraine having slightly more than Russia due to Russia's superior firepower capabilities and capacity. Casualties for both sides have increased significantly since the beginning of the attritional phase of the war in late-2022, and will likely continue to increase this year and into 2027. My personal estimates (which of course, are largely baseless and just educated guesses from my thousands of hours of covering this war) would put Russian and Ukrainian casualties each at around 700,000, or around half of this 1.46 million figure.

However, it's important to mention the replacement rates Russia and Ukraine both have. According to NATO estimates (so, the bare minimum number, as they have an incentive to understate this), Russia recruits - via financial incentives - anywhere between 30,000 and 40,000 soldiers per month. This was also repeatedly backed up by Syrskyi's own claims about the total number of Russian personnel within Ukraine, as this number he gave increased each time he made a statement about it.

According to my information from sources within Ukraine who analysed the recent mobilisation activity though local tracking services, Ukraine forcibly mobilises a little less than 1,000 soldiers per day - a rate that has increased substantially since July due to a new campaign against military-aged men in Kyiv, western Ukraine, and some smaller towns. When taking into account the small number of volunteers who still sign up to join the AFU, that figure would probably reach around 1,000 per day, or 30,000 per month.

So, in theory, both sides are *likely* able to maintain their current army sizes, right? Well, no. At least not for Ukraine. There's always all this talk about Ukrainian manpower shortages. Why is this?

(Post continues below) ⬇️

(...)

Well, the vast majority of Ukraine's manpower replacements come from forcibly mobilised men, and most of those are from men kidnapped off the streets by the TCC. The training camps they are sent to are often of very poor quality compared to ones for volunteer soldiers, and most of the time they do not receive the necessary amount of training time before being sent to the frontline. Some of these soldiers serve as "meat" for the notorious assault units or territorial defence brigades (e.g. the 108th TDF Brigade, 425th Assault Brigade "Skala"). While Ukraine has improved on this major issue (e.g. the infamous 47th and 110th Mechanised Brigades are no longer seeing massive destruction of their combat capabilities, and Skala has been broken up and reformed), the lack of training remains a major issue for their ability to fight effectively.

Additionally, prior to August, Ukraine *wasn't* achieving a replacement rate for their military, at least according to Tusk's 27,000 figure. This has only changed due to a new change in policy allowing for massively increased mobilisation in Kyiv and western Ukraine, which, especially Kyiv, served as a form of "safe haven" for young military-aged men, to an extent.

Furthermore, this 30,000 soldier per month mobilisation rate I provided is only based on recorded mobilisation incidents. It does not take into account men who escaped training centres or went AWOL upon reaching the frontline. I assume that Tusk's 27,000 number also does not include soldiers who went AWOL, as they are generally not considered "casualties" by the Ukrainian government. Therefore, when taking this into account, it becomes clear that, if Tusk's claim is correct, Ukraine likely isn't achieving a replacement rate on their army, with its size actively decreasing. This, in my opinion, is the single more important factor contributing to the manpower issues within the Ukrainian military that we so often hear about.

This guy is 3 times my age btw

He's tweeted "AMK" more than he's posted about Kostyantynivka, Orikhiv, Pokrovsk and Sumy COMBINED!!

The IRGC attacked a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz with a drone/anti-ship cruise missile, resulting in a fire that has since been extinguished.

Yesterday, 5 Russian KAB glide-bombs destroyed the last invincibility point in Dobropillya - a specialised emergency shelter set up to provide civilians with basic essentials to survive.

8 civilians were in the basement of the invincibility point at the time of the attack. All 8 people were killed.