People are constantly asking me about my positions on certain issues with the Ukraine war, so I thought I would make this post addressing where I stand on some recent prominent claims made by each side, formatted in a simple way:

Russia does not fully control Kostyantynivka, but they control most of it.

Russia fully controls Chasiv Yar.

Russia fully controls Kozacha Lopan (as of one week ago).

Russia does not fully control Kupyansk.

Ukraine controls the vast majority of Lyman.

The Russian flag planting videos in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblast do not correspond to actual advances.

The Russian flag planting videos near Bilyi Kolodyaz are AI-generated.

The Russian flag planting video in Svyatohirsk is AI-generated.

Ukrainian forces are not encircled in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces are not encircled near Lyman.

There is no large Ukrainian counterattack east of Slovyansk.

Ukraine controls most of Dobropillya.

The situation for Ukraine around Dobropillya is absolutely not stable.

The situation for Ukraine near Druzhkivka is critical, and Deepstate along with other Ukrainian sources are lying about the frontline there.

Russia is breaking through in Orikhiv, but consolidation remains limited for now.

Russia fully controls Komar.

Ukraine has not crossed the Zherebets River and broken into the Terny area northeast of Lyman.

Russia is not preparing a large-scale offensive on Chernihiv - only a limited incursion is possible.

Belarus is not going to join the war anytime soon.

Ukrainian mid-to-long-range drone strikes have decreased in intensity recently, and they are not a gamechanger.

Russia mid-to-long-range drone strikes have increased in intensity recently, but they are not a gamechanger.

North Korea does not have 10s of thousands of soldiers deployed in/near Ukraine.

In short - both sides are lying, as usual and as expected. Now you can go ahead and accuse me of being paid by Russia/Ukraine for not reporting what you want to hear.

Tonight, there is an increased risk of Russia carrying out a large-scale attack on Kyiv, using Iskander-M and Kn-23 ballistic missiles.

Approximately 24 ballistic missiles have been accumulated in Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, and Rostov Oblasts, most of which are Iskander-Ms. Several Kn-23s are also ready.

The threat window lasts from approximately 11:30pm to 3:30am Kyiv Time. While the threat for tonight isn't as high as previous nights where attacks did happen, there is information that it could happen tonight.

I will provide further updates if any additional info surfaces.

Ansarallah is once again attacking King Khalid Airbase in southwestern Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles/drones.

The Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement regarding today's drone and KAB glide-bomb strikes on Odesa Oblast.

In Odesa Oblast, the MoD claims the following was targeted:

- Three different logistics centres in Odesa City used to supply the Ukrainian military.

- A workshop in Odesa City used to produce drones and their components.

- A warehouse facility in Odesa City used to store rocket artillery systems and rocket artillery shells.

- A Nova Poshta warehouse in the town of Nerubaivske used to store and distribute military cargo.

- Workshops used to produce drones in the city of Chornomorsk.

- A logistics warehouse in the town of Usatove used to store military cargo.

- A logistics warehouse in the town of Teplodar used to store military cargo.

- A dry cargo ship at Odesa Port allegedly delivering cargo for the Ukrainian military.

- The "Usatove" 330 kV electrical substation in the town of Usatove, which supplies power to Odesa Port and logistics warehouses.

Additionally, in Mykolaiv Oblast, the Russian MoD reported that strikes targeted the "Nova" 150 kV electrical substation, which supplies power to Mykolaiv Port and logistics warehouses.

Furthermore, they stated that strikes against railway infrastructure facilities in western Ukraine which are used to transport military cargo from European countries continue.

The original channel which reported it was the official channel of Russia's Akhmat forces.

I wonder if Kadyrov was killed...

It could also be Apti Alaudinov. It seems odd that the official channel would report this though.

Two more petrol stations in Zhytomyr Oblast have been struck by Russian Geran-4 jet-drones. One was hit near Korosten, while the other was near Malyn.