Russian Geran-4 jet-drone strike on a Ukrainian FP-2 mid-range drone launch position near Oleksiivka, Kharkiv Oblast.

A Russian Su-35 is trying to shoot down a Ukrainian aircraft west of Slovyansk using an R-37/77 air-to-air missile. The Ukrainian aircraft was launching glide-bombs at the Chasiv Yar area.

The air-to-air missile was detected flying west over Bakhmut at 3,900 km/h.

The interception attempt was likely unsuccessful.

The Russian R-37/77 air-to-air missile (which was launched by a Su-35 near Debaltseve, Luhansk Oblast) disappeared from radars between Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar, presumably after self-destructing.

The Ukrainian aircraft was launching glide-bombs from the green circle on the map, west of Slovyansk.

6 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers are in the air right now, redeploying from Ukrainka Airbase to Olenya Airbase - their staging ground for the upcoming large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine. They will land in the next couple of hours. 3-4 Tu-160M strategic bombers are also equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East.

With the 3-day cessation of strikes on Kyiv set to end in a little over 12 hours, Russia may launch their large-scale attack as soon as tonight, just after midnight local time. If not, they will probably launch their attack tomorrow night.

The highest threat is to Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast between 12am and 6am, although other regions will likely also be targeted. It is also not ruled out that Russia attacks western Ukraine with Kh-101 cruise missiles as well.

The following missiles may be used in this attack:

- 40-50 Kh-101 cruise missiles;
- 10-30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles;
- (possibly) 8-16 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- (possibly) several Kh-59/69 cruise missiles;
- S8000 Banderol cruise missiles;
- Geran-2 drones and Geran-4 jet-drones.

Now when you search "Lyman" on Twitter, all you see is my map.

It shows how fucked the Ukraine war information space is. None of my maps showing Russian advances in Dobropillya or elsewhere got even one-tenth of the traction.

But when its positive news for Ukraine, people all of a sudden blindly trust what I say. If it's positive news for Russia, I'm automatically a Kremlin propagandist.

Update: Russia likely plans to launch at least 45 Kh-101 cruise missiles in this upcoming attack, potentially as many as 60. If so, it would make it their largest attack using strategic aviation in years.

Two of the Tu-160M strategic bombers, for the first time ever, may each be carrying 12 missiles - their maximum capacity.

Additionally, there is an added threat to the central regions of Ukraine (Cherkasy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk & Kirovohrad Oblasts), along with Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast.

I will update you all in the morning my time after I get some sleep.

If the attack does take place tonight, 2-3 Tu-160M strategic bombers will take off from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East in approximately 7 hours; reach their launch lines in around 12 hours, 30 minutes; and missiles will enter Ukrainian airspace in around 14 hours, 20 minutes from now.

6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers would take off from Olenya Airbase in around 11 hours and run along a similar timetable, offset by up to 20 minutes.

Iskander-M and Kn-23 ballistic missile launches, along with Zircon hypersonic cruise missile launches (from Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, & Rostov Oblasts) would take place anywhere between 10.5-14 hours from now.

Keep in mind, this all assumes the attack does indeed take place tonight, which is not yet guaranteed.

There is also information that Russia intends to launch up to 15 Kn-23 ballistic missiles from near Liski, Voronezh Oblast, during the upcoming combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

Good morning. Attack tonight.

❗️Russia intends to launch a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight, involving strategic bombers, ballistic missiles, and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.

2-4 Tu-160M strategic bombers departed from Ukrainka Airbase in the far east nearly 2 hours ago, flying northwest to their launch lines in western Vologda Oblast.

Communications between Olenya Airbase and strategic command and control in Moscow on combat frequencies have been recorded in the last 10 minutes. 6-8 Tu-95MS strategic bombers will take off from Olenya Airbase in the next 2.5 hours.

Additionally, up to 34 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Kn-23 ballistic missiles, and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles may be launched from Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, and Rostov Oblasts. Kh-59/69 and Kalibr cruise missiles may also be used. S8000 Banderol cruise missiles, Geran-4 jet-drones, and Geran-2 drones are also expected to be used.

The highest threat is to Kyiv city and Kyiv Oblast, although there is also a threat to the western regions of Ukraine (especially Lviv Oblast), and the central regions of Ukraine (Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, & Cherkasy Oblasts).

Live updates will now follow below for the next several hours. Stay tuned!

Based on available information, this attack will be larger than usual. We could see up to 60 Kh-101 cruise missiles used if all 8 Tu-95MS + 4 Tu-160M strategic bombers launch.

According to western intelligence provided to Ukraine, up to 34 ballistic missiles (Kn-23 + Iskander-M) and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles could be used. This number does not include RM-48U modified S-400s.

Geran-4 jet-drones will continue to harass Ukrainian airspace for the next few hours to try drain Ukrainian air defence ahead of the cruise missiles, although no attacks on Kyiv will occur for at least another two hours, as the “Kyiv air ceasefire” has not yet ended.