Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Deigo)
The column was seen advancing towards the village of Jumla.
@GeoPWatch
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
๐คฌ100๐14๐คฎ12๐คฃ5โค3๐ค3 1
During the last two ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, Ukraine launched at least 18 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, out of the "small package" of interceptors Zelensky said were delivered.
During the first attack, Ukraine launched 9 Patriots, intercepting 7 RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles. During the second attack, another 9 Patriots were launched, intercepting ~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (one of the Patriot missiles malfunctioned after being launched).
Assuming the "small package" of Patriot interceptors is no larger than 20, Ukraine is effectively out of interceptor missiles once again, and the next Russian attack will likely achieve a 100% impact rate assuming no more are delivered between now and then. The smaller attack using 8 modified S-400 missiles last week, which had the aim of wasting these limited interceptors, worked in its goals.
During the first attack, Ukraine launched 9 Patriots, intercepting 7 RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles. During the second attack, another 9 Patriots were launched, intercepting ~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (one of the Patriot missiles malfunctioned after being launched).
Assuming the "small package" of Patriot interceptors is no larger than 20, Ukraine is effectively out of interceptor missiles once again, and the next Russian attack will likely achieve a 100% impact rate assuming no more are delivered between now and then. The smaller attack using 8 modified S-400 missiles last week, which had the aim of wasting these limited interceptors, worked in its goals.
โค120๐46 25๐ฅ12๐คฃ10๐คฌ9๐8๐3๐2๐1๐ค1
AMK Mapping
NASA FIRMS data indicates that a large fire is burning at the Darnytsia Railway Depot in eastern Kyiv following overnight Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile/Zircon hypersonic cruise missile strikes. Coordinates: 50.44040, 30.67252
Damage seen to a building at the Darnytsia Railway Depot in eastern Kyiv following last night's Russian ballistic missile attack.
The Darnytsia Railway Depot was one of the main targets for this attack. Around 12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeted it, of which about 10 impacted (2 were shot down by Patriots over the facility). A large fire broke out after the attack.
The Darnytsia Railway Depot was one of the main targets for this attack. Around 12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeted it, of which about 10 impacted (2 were shot down by Patriots over the facility). A large fire broke out after the attack.
๐ฅ88โค23๐15๐คฌ12๐4 2
One of the targets hit during Russia's massive overnight combined missile and drone attack on Odesa Oblast was a border crossing point for ferry services, located on the Ukraine-Romania border at the Danube River.
This facility was targeted by Geran-2 drones, and has since suspended all activities.
This facility was targeted by Geran-2 drones, and has since suspended all activities.
๐ฅ102โค23๐20๐5๐คฎ4๐คฌ2๐ญ2
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Russian Geran-4 jet-drone strike on a target near the village of Ternove, eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
โค74๐ฅ33๐19๐คฃ5๐คฌ4 4๐1๐คฎ1
The Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement regarding last night's combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.
In Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast, they claim that missiles and drones targeted military-industrial enterprises involved in the production of missiles, drones, and related components; and fuel depots used to supply the Ukrainian military.
In Odesa Oblast, the MoD claims that missiles and drones targeted facilities at Odesa and Chornomorsk Port used to store military cargo; fuel & lubricants; as well as related infrastructure used to maintain operations at the ports.
In Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast, they claim that missiles and drones targeted military-industrial enterprises involved in the production of missiles, drones, and related components; and fuel depots used to supply the Ukrainian military.
In Odesa Oblast, the MoD claims that missiles and drones targeted facilities at Odesa and Chornomorsk Port used to store military cargo; fuel & lubricants; as well as related infrastructure used to maintain operations at the ports.
๐86๐25๐คฎ12โค6๐ฅ5๐2๐คฌ2๐ฏ2
Ukrainian drones have once again attacked Leningrad Oblast, this time targeting the Ust-Luga Port. Multiple impacts were recorded, resulting in a large fire breaking out.
The Ust-Luga Port is responsible for processing and handling stable gas condensate, coal, mineral fertilisers and other oil products overseas. It was attacked at least four times during March, and was recently struck on August 14.
The Ust-Luga Port is responsible for processing and handling stable gas condensate, coal, mineral fertilisers and other oil products overseas. It was attacked at least four times during March, and was recently struck on August 14.
๐คฎ94๐33โค16๐12๐คฌ8๐ฅ7๐4๐2๐2 1
The Ukrainian Air Force has started releasing interception rates on missiles again (although they still don't mention the total launches).
If we (hypothetically) assume their claimed total launches would be what I reported, their claimed interception rates are:
- 5/22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles;
- 5/8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- 0/2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles ;
- 0/4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
My figures were:
- 2/22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles;
- 3/8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- 0/2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles ;
- 0/4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
If we (hypothetically) assume their claimed total launches would be what I reported, their claimed interception rates are:
- 5/22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles;
- 5/8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- 0/2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles ;
- 0/4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
My figures were:
- 2/22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles;
- 3/8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- 0/2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles ;
- 0/4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
๐คฃ120๐29โค8 7๐ฅ2๐2๐คฎ2
AMK Mapping
The Ukrainian Air Force has started releasing interception rates on missiles again (although they still don't mention the total launches). If we (hypothetically) assume their claimed total launches would be what I reported, their claimed interception ratesโฆ
Correction: according to updated information, 6 Kalibrs were launched, not 8. Therefore, there is a minimum interception rate of 3/6 Kalibrs.
Note: the interception rate I report is the bare minimum, only including interceptions I can confirm. The true rate may be a little higher.
Note: the interception rate I report is the bare minimum, only including interceptions I can confirm. The true rate may be a little higher.
๐43 26โค6๐คฃ4๐คฎ2
Last night, Russia launched another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine. Missiles launches:
~20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.
~2 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Bryansk City.
~6 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea Fleet at Novorossiysk Naval Base
~2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from near Manturovo, Kursk Oblast.
~2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from near Millerovo, Rostov Oblast.
~2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles launched by Su-30/34 aircraft near Crimea.
-----------------------
Total missiles launched:
~22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles
~6 Kalibr cruise missiles
~4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles
~2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles
~34 missiles in total.
-----------------------
Ukrainian air defence work:
As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to shoot down a *minimum* of 3 Kalibrs and 2 Iskander-M/S-400s.
-----------------------
The main targets for this strike was Ukrainian military targets in Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. The following was targeted:
"West Gate" logistics depot in Stoyanka, Kyiv Oblast (50.44421, 30.23221) by Iskander-Ms.
Darnytsia Railway Depot (50.44040, 30.67252) in eastern Kyiv by Iskander-Ms.
Odesa Port (46.50300, 30.72466) by S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.
Chornomorsk Port (46.31710, 30.65900) by S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.
Unknown target in southern Kyiv by Iskander-Ms/Zircons
Unknown target(s) in/near Brovary, Kyiv Oblast, by Iskander-Ms/Zircons.
Unknown target(s) in/near Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast, by Iskander-Ms/Zircons.
Unknown target near Boyarka, Kyiv Oblast, by Kalibrs.
Unknown target near Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast, by a Kh-31PD
Unknown target near Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, by a Kh-31PD.
-----------------------
Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches. These numbers may be adjusted in the coming hours as more information comes available.
~20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.
~2 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Bryansk City.
~6 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea Fleet at Novorossiysk Naval Base
~2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from near Manturovo, Kursk Oblast.
~2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from near Millerovo, Rostov Oblast.
~2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles launched by Su-30/34 aircraft near Crimea.
-----------------------
Total missiles launched:
~22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles
~6 Kalibr cruise missiles
~4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles
~2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles
~34 missiles in total.
-----------------------
Ukrainian air defence work:
As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to shoot down a *minimum* of 3 Kalibrs and 2 Iskander-M/S-400s.
-----------------------
The main targets for this strike was Ukrainian military targets in Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. The following was targeted:
"West Gate" logistics depot in Stoyanka, Kyiv Oblast (50.44421, 30.23221) by Iskander-Ms.
Darnytsia Railway Depot (50.44040, 30.67252) in eastern Kyiv by Iskander-Ms.
Odesa Port (46.50300, 30.72466) by S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.
Chornomorsk Port (46.31710, 30.65900) by S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.
Unknown target in southern Kyiv by Iskander-Ms/Zircons
Unknown target(s) in/near Brovary, Kyiv Oblast, by Iskander-Ms/Zircons.
Unknown target(s) in/near Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast, by Iskander-Ms/Zircons.
Unknown target near Boyarka, Kyiv Oblast, by Kalibrs.
Unknown target near Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast, by a Kh-31PD
Unknown target near Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, by a Kh-31PD.
-----------------------
Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches. These numbers may be adjusted in the coming hours as more information comes available.
โค70๐32๐ฅ10๐คฌ6๐คฎ2๐2๐2๐1๐คฃ1 1
AMK Mapping
The Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement regarding last night's combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine. In Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast, they claim that missiles and drones targeted military-industrial enterprises involved in the productionโฆ
The Russian Ministry of Defence released a more detailed summary of what they say was hit, during the overnight combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.
In Kyiv City, they claim that missiles targeted a facility used by the "Fire Point" company used to manufacture warheads, solid fuel boosters, and components for FP-5 "Flamingo" cruise missiles; a facility owned by the "Aerobavovna" company used to produce balloons for delivering and controlled medium-to-long-range drones (including Hornet drones); and the Darnytsia Railway Depot, which allegedly repairs and services locomotives used to transport military cargo.
In Kyiv Oblast, the MoD claims that missiles and drones targeted an assembly, outfitting, and storage workshop for drone boats in the village of Khotiv (this was probably the "unknown" target for Kalibrs, Zircons, and Iskanders); and a fuel depot in the city of Boryspil allegedly used to supply the Ukrainian military.
In Odesa Oblast, they claim that missiles, drones, and KAB glide-bombs targeted three different thermal power plants and three different electrical substations supplying power to the Odesa Port; a workshop used for assembling drones; 16 different storage facilities at Odesa Port used to store weapons and military equipment; six fuel tanks at Odesa Port containing fuel supplied by western countries allegedly used for supplying the Ukrainian military; two warehouses containing military equipment at Chornomorsk; as well as a border crossing point and ferry terminal (connecting Ukraine and Romania) in the village of Orlivka.
In Kyiv City, they claim that missiles targeted a facility used by the "Fire Point" company used to manufacture warheads, solid fuel boosters, and components for FP-5 "Flamingo" cruise missiles; a facility owned by the "Aerobavovna" company used to produce balloons for delivering and controlled medium-to-long-range drones (including Hornet drones); and the Darnytsia Railway Depot, which allegedly repairs and services locomotives used to transport military cargo.
In Kyiv Oblast, the MoD claims that missiles and drones targeted an assembly, outfitting, and storage workshop for drone boats in the village of Khotiv (this was probably the "unknown" target for Kalibrs, Zircons, and Iskanders); and a fuel depot in the city of Boryspil allegedly used to supply the Ukrainian military.
In Odesa Oblast, they claim that missiles, drones, and KAB glide-bombs targeted three different thermal power plants and three different electrical substations supplying power to the Odesa Port; a workshop used for assembling drones; 16 different storage facilities at Odesa Port used to store weapons and military equipment; six fuel tanks at Odesa Port containing fuel supplied by western countries allegedly used for supplying the Ukrainian military; two warehouses containing military equipment at Chornomorsk; as well as a border crossing point and ferry terminal (connecting Ukraine and Romania) in the village of Orlivka.
๐75๐ฅ33โค19๐คฎ6 3๐คฌ2๐1๐ญ1
Explosions in Kyiv.
The city is under attack by Russian Geran-4 jet-drones once again.
The city is under attack by Russian Geran-4 jet-drones once again.
๐ฅ121โค25๐18๐คฌ9๐4๐2๐2
AMK Mapping
Ukrainian drones have once again attacked Leningrad Oblast, this time targeting the Ust-Luga Port. Multiple impacts were recorded, resulting in a large fire breaking out. The Ust-Luga Port is responsible for processing and handling stable gas condensateโฆ
During today's Ukrainian drone attack on the Ust-Luga Port in Leningrad Oblast, drone alerts were issued in parts of eastern Estonia due to Ukrainian drone flights over the country.
The Commander of the Estonian Air Force reports that one drone entered Estonia airspace in the south-east of the country, while another briefly headed towards the city of Narva.
The Commander of the Estonian Air Force reports that one drone entered Estonia airspace in the south-east of the country, while another briefly headed towards the city of Narva.
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Another Nova Postha terminal has been hit by a Russian Geran-4 jet-drone near Odesa City, resulting in a large fire breaking out.
๐ฅ116๐คฌ20๐13โค9๐3
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Footage showing the impact of two Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles equipped with cluster warheads near the city of Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast, last night.
๐ฅ117๐27๐คฌ16โค13๐7๐คฃ3