Another explosion in Odesa. This one impacted.
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NASA FIRMS data indicates that a large fire is burning at the "West Gate" logistics depot in the village of Stoyanka, Kyiv Oblast, following overnight Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile strikes.
Coordinates: 50.44421, 30.23221
Coordinates: 50.44421, 30.23221
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NASA FIRMS data indicates that a large fire is burning at the Darnytsia Railway Depot in eastern Kyiv following overnight Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile/Zircon hypersonic cruise missile strikes.
Coordinates: 50.44040, 30.67252
Coordinates: 50.44040, 30.67252
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Deigo)
The column was seen advancing towards the village of Jumla.
@GeoPWatch
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During the last two ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, Ukraine launched at least 18 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, out of the "small package" of interceptors Zelensky said were delivered.
During the first attack, Ukraine launched 9 Patriots, intercepting 7 RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles. During the second attack, another 9 Patriots were launched, intercepting ~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (one of the Patriot missiles malfunctioned after being launched).
Assuming the "small package" of Patriot interceptors is no larger than 20, Ukraine is effectively out of interceptor missiles once again, and the next Russian attack will likely achieve a 100% impact rate assuming no more are delivered between now and then. The smaller attack using 8 modified S-400 missiles last week, which had the aim of wasting these limited interceptors, worked in its goals.
During the first attack, Ukraine launched 9 Patriots, intercepting 7 RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles. During the second attack, another 9 Patriots were launched, intercepting ~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (one of the Patriot missiles malfunctioned after being launched).
Assuming the "small package" of Patriot interceptors is no larger than 20, Ukraine is effectively out of interceptor missiles once again, and the next Russian attack will likely achieve a 100% impact rate assuming no more are delivered between now and then. The smaller attack using 8 modified S-400 missiles last week, which had the aim of wasting these limited interceptors, worked in its goals.
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AMK Mapping
NASA FIRMS data indicates that a large fire is burning at the Darnytsia Railway Depot in eastern Kyiv following overnight Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile/Zircon hypersonic cruise missile strikes. Coordinates: 50.44040, 30.67252
Damage seen to a building at the Darnytsia Railway Depot in eastern Kyiv following last night's Russian ballistic missile attack.
The Darnytsia Railway Depot was one of the main targets for this attack. Around 12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeted it, of which about 10 impacted (2 were shot down by Patriots over the facility). A large fire broke out after the attack.
The Darnytsia Railway Depot was one of the main targets for this attack. Around 12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeted it, of which about 10 impacted (2 were shot down by Patriots over the facility). A large fire broke out after the attack.
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One of the targets hit during Russia's massive overnight combined missile and drone attack on Odesa Oblast was a border crossing point for ferry services, located on the Ukraine-Romania border at the Danube River.
This facility was targeted by Geran-2 drones, and has since suspended all activities.
This facility was targeted by Geran-2 drones, and has since suspended all activities.
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Russian Geran-4 jet-drone strike on a target near the village of Ternove, eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
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The Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement regarding last night's combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.
In Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast, they claim that missiles and drones targeted military-industrial enterprises involved in the production of missiles, drones, and related components; and fuel depots used to supply the Ukrainian military.
In Odesa Oblast, the MoD claims that missiles and drones targeted facilities at Odesa and Chornomorsk Port used to store military cargo; fuel & lubricants; as well as related infrastructure used to maintain operations at the ports.
In Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast, they claim that missiles and drones targeted military-industrial enterprises involved in the production of missiles, drones, and related components; and fuel depots used to supply the Ukrainian military.
In Odesa Oblast, the MoD claims that missiles and drones targeted facilities at Odesa and Chornomorsk Port used to store military cargo; fuel & lubricants; as well as related infrastructure used to maintain operations at the ports.
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Ukrainian drones have once again attacked Leningrad Oblast, this time targeting the Ust-Luga Port. Multiple impacts were recorded, resulting in a large fire breaking out.
The Ust-Luga Port is responsible for processing and handling stable gas condensate, coal, mineral fertilisers and other oil products overseas. It was attacked at least four times during March, and was recently struck on August 14.
The Ust-Luga Port is responsible for processing and handling stable gas condensate, coal, mineral fertilisers and other oil products overseas. It was attacked at least four times during March, and was recently struck on August 14.
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The Ukrainian Air Force has started releasing interception rates on missiles again (although they still don't mention the total launches).
If we (hypothetically) assume their claimed total launches would be what I reported, their claimed interception rates are:
- 5/22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles;
- 5/8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- 0/2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles ;
- 0/4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
My figures were:
- 2/22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles;
- 3/8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- 0/2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles ;
- 0/4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
If we (hypothetically) assume their claimed total launches would be what I reported, their claimed interception rates are:
- 5/22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles;
- 5/8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- 0/2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles ;
- 0/4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
My figures were:
- 2/22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles;
- 3/8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- 0/2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles ;
- 0/4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
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AMK Mapping
The Ukrainian Air Force has started releasing interception rates on missiles again (although they still don't mention the total launches). If we (hypothetically) assume their claimed total launches would be what I reported, their claimed interception ratesโฆ
Correction: according to updated information, 6 Kalibrs were launched, not 8. Therefore, there is a minimum interception rate of 3/6 Kalibrs.
Note: the interception rate I report is the bare minimum, only including interceptions I can confirm. The true rate may be a little higher.
Note: the interception rate I report is the bare minimum, only including interceptions I can confirm. The true rate may be a little higher.
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Last night, Russia launched another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine. Missiles launches:
~20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.
~2 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Bryansk City.
~6 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea Fleet at Novorossiysk Naval Base
~2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from near Manturovo, Kursk Oblast.
~2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from near Millerovo, Rostov Oblast.
~2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles launched by Su-30/34 aircraft near Crimea.
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Total missiles launched:
~22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles
~6 Kalibr cruise missiles
~4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles
~2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles
~34 missiles in total.
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Ukrainian air defence work:
As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to shoot down a *minimum* of 3 Kalibrs and 2 Iskander-M/S-400s.
-----------------------
The main targets for this strike was Ukrainian military targets in Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. The following was targeted:
"West Gate" logistics depot in Stoyanka, Kyiv Oblast (50.44421, 30.23221) by Iskander-Ms.
Darnytsia Railway Depot (50.44040, 30.67252) in eastern Kyiv by Iskander-Ms.
Odesa Port (46.50300, 30.72466) by S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.
Chornomorsk Port (46.31710, 30.65900) by S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.
Unknown target in southern Kyiv by Iskander-Ms/Zircons
Unknown target(s) in/near Brovary, Kyiv Oblast, by Iskander-Ms/Zircons.
Unknown target(s) in/near Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast, by Iskander-Ms/Zircons.
Unknown target near Boyarka, Kyiv Oblast, by Kalibrs.
Unknown target near Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast, by a Kh-31PD
Unknown target near Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, by a Kh-31PD.
-----------------------
Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches. These numbers may be adjusted in the coming hours as more information comes available.
~20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.
~2 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Bryansk City.
~6 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea Fleet at Novorossiysk Naval Base
~2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from near Manturovo, Kursk Oblast.
~2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from near Millerovo, Rostov Oblast.
~2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles launched by Su-30/34 aircraft near Crimea.
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Total missiles launched:
~22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles
~6 Kalibr cruise missiles
~4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles
~2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles
~34 missiles in total.
-----------------------
Ukrainian air defence work:
As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to shoot down a *minimum* of 3 Kalibrs and 2 Iskander-M/S-400s.
-----------------------
The main targets for this strike was Ukrainian military targets in Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. The following was targeted:
"West Gate" logistics depot in Stoyanka, Kyiv Oblast (50.44421, 30.23221) by Iskander-Ms.
Darnytsia Railway Depot (50.44040, 30.67252) in eastern Kyiv by Iskander-Ms.
Odesa Port (46.50300, 30.72466) by S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.
Chornomorsk Port (46.31710, 30.65900) by S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.
Unknown target in southern Kyiv by Iskander-Ms/Zircons
Unknown target(s) in/near Brovary, Kyiv Oblast, by Iskander-Ms/Zircons.
Unknown target(s) in/near Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast, by Iskander-Ms/Zircons.
Unknown target near Boyarka, Kyiv Oblast, by Kalibrs.
Unknown target near Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast, by a Kh-31PD
Unknown target near Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, by a Kh-31PD.
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Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches. These numbers may be adjusted in the coming hours as more information comes available.
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