Explosion in Odesa

Edit: this was an interception

Second Banderol is approaching

Another explosion in Odesa. This one impacted.

NASA FIRMS data indicates that large fires are burning throughout the Druzhkivka and Raiske areas as a result of increased Russian artillery shelling and KAB glide-bomb strikes over the last 48 hours.

During the last two ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, Ukraine launched at least 18 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, out of the "small package" of interceptors Zelensky said were delivered.

During the first attack, Ukraine launched 9 Patriots, intercepting 7 RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles. During the second attack, another 9 Patriots were launched, intercepting ~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (one of the Patriot missiles malfunctioned after being launched).

Assuming the "small package" of Patriot interceptors is no larger than 20, Ukraine is effectively out of interceptor missiles once again, and the next Russian attack will likely achieve a 100% impact rate assuming no more are delivered between now and then. The smaller attack using 8 modified S-400 missiles last week, which had the aim of wasting these limited interceptors, worked in its goals.

Damage seen to a building at the Darnytsia Railway Depot in eastern Kyiv following last night's Russian ballistic missile attack.

The Darnytsia Railway Depot was one of the main targets for this attack. Around 12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeted it, of which about 10 impacted (2 were shot down by Patriots over the facility). A large fire broke out after the attack.

Russian Geran-4 jet-drone strike on a target near the village of Ternove, eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

The Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement regarding last night's combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

In Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast, they claim that missiles and drones targeted military-industrial enterprises involved in the production of missiles, drones, and related components; and fuel depots used to supply the Ukrainian military.

In Odesa Oblast, the MoD claims that missiles and drones targeted facilities at Odesa and Chornomorsk Port used to store military cargo; fuel & lubricants; as well as related infrastructure used to maintain operations at the ports.

The civilian death toll from Russia's overnight combined missile and drone attacks on Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast has risen to 12, with another 17+ injured.

The Ukrainian Air Force has started releasing interception rates on missiles again (although they still don't mention the total launches).

If we (hypothetically) assume their claimed total launches would be what I reported, their claimed interception rates are:

- 5/22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles;
- 5/8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- 0/2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles ;
- 0/4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.

My figures were:

- 2/22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles;
- 3/8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- 0/2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles ;
- 0/4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.