Russian Geran-4 jet-drones struck two more dry cargo ships in the western Black Sea, which the Russian Ministry of Defence claims were delivering equipment for the Ukrainian military.

Update: Preparations are complete now. All 6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers from the Far East have landed at Olenya Airbase.

The highest threat is for tonight, between 12am and 6am local time.

Based on recent Russian reconnaissance drone activity and previous targeting patterns, these are the areas of Kyiv Oblast at the highest risk for this upcoming combined Russian missile and drone attack.

But, in theory, any part of Kyiv Oblast could be hit. These are just the areas Russia has been most interested in scouting out, although its often difficult to differentiate between reconnaissance on potential targets and reconnaissance on potential air defence positions to find the optimal flight routes.

Presumably, the main targets will once again be defence industries and logistics warehouses.

Now that I think about it, there could be a threat to western Ukraine as well.

There’s a possibility that the single Geran-4 jet-drone which flew to Rivne Oblast yesterday was equipped with a camera for reconnaissance. And Kh-101 cruise missiles (which will be used in this upcoming attack) are frequently used for striking areas outside the range of Iskander-M ballistic missiles.

The IDF claims to have killed two commanders in Hamas' Al-Qassam Brigades in targeted assassination strikes on the Nuseirat Refugee Camp in the central Gaza Strip, and the Al-Tuffah District of Gaza City.

Both militants reportedly took part in the October 7th attacks on Israel.

Russian S8000 Banderol cruise missiles struck building of the Main Directorate of the National Police in Zhytomyr City this afternoon.

Two police officers were killed, and at least 20 people injured. A fire broke out at the building following the strikes.

The battle for Dobropillya has officially begun.

If the large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine does indeed take place tonight, we can expect activity to begin being recorded on Russian strategic frequencies 2-4 hours from now.

Another angle of one of the Russian S8000 Banderol cruise missile strikes on the building of the Main Directorate of the National Police in Zhytomyr City.

A large fire from a previous impact is seen burning.

A number of reasons. They want to delay the Russian encircling maneuver on Orikhiv, which is necessary to prevent Russia from reaching Zaporizhhzia City. They also want to re-establish a buffer zone in front of the New Donbas line in the Filiya area to delay Russian advances towards the areas west of Novopavlivka and prevent a permanent breach in that crucial defensive line. Another purpose is disrupting Russian logistics from Velyka Novosilka to Hulyaipole, and preventing them from utilising Komar as a logistical hub due to the proximity to the frontline.

However, one major factor that many forget is PR. Ukraine's centre of gravity is based in Brussels and Washington. The West views "success" in this war largely through the lens of km² gained, and is arguably less in touch with reality (on the tactical level) compared to Kyiv. If Ukraine can completely recapture Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which they are coming close to completing, you can only imagine the headlines that will be presented in mainstream media. It will be somewhat like 2022 with Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kyiv Oblasts all over again.

This encourages the West to provide more military aid to Ukraine, as they have once again "proven" their ability to carry out successful counteroffensives. For the media to pick up on successes, and for it to gain traction, the achievements need to be simple and easy for ordinary observers to understand. Ukraine recapturing 100s of square kilometres and pushing Russia beyond the borders of Dnipropetrovsk can be presented as "shattering Putin's dreams of advancing beyond Donbas", or something similar.

This is where Ukraine has always struggled. Because they rely on outside support to continue their war effort, they must make certain decisions that don't make much military sense. Sure, recapturing this area does have tactical advantages, but so does counterattacking near Kramatorsk. It's just that Dnipropetrovsk is easier to advance in, and can be presented as a larger success compared to some random villages east of Kramatorsk that no casual observers have heard of.

Russia, on the other hand, produces most of their military equipment domestically, and can focus almost entirely on achieving military successes. I think that's one of the reasons why Russia is so incredibly bad at propaganda - they just haven't had the experience during this war.

Additional information about the large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine, which is expected to take place tonight.

Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Kn-23 ballistic missiles, and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles have been deployed to the locations shown on the map.

As I mentioned earlier, a total of around 30 missiles (Iskander + Zircon + Kn-23) could be used in this attack. It's likely that there are at least another dozen missiles in these areas, but in my opinion they will be used for separate, opportunistic strikes, outside this large-scale attack.

As for the strategic bombers, 6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers will likely be used from Olenya Airbase, along with 2-3 Tu-160M strategic bombers from Ukrainka Airbase.

It is not ruled out that missiles of other types not listed here are used too.

As I mentioned earlier, the highest threat is for Kyiv City (especially the western, northwestern, northern, southeastern, and eastern districts), Kyiv Oblast (Brovary, Boryspil, and Fastiv), parts of Kharkiv City, parts of Poltava City, and parts of western Dnipro. Other cities may be hit too, however Russian reconnaissance drones have been the most active over Kyiv.

If Tu-160Ms are used, they will depart from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, at around 8:30pm Kyiv Time (just over an hour from now). Tu-95MS strategic bombers would depart from Olenya Airbase at around 12:30am Kyiv Time (just over 4 hours from now). This is assuming they use their launch lines near the city of Cherepovets, Vologda Oblast, to launch Kh-101 cruise missiles.

There is still no 100% confirmation that the attack will indeed take place tonight, but currently, all signs point towards that.