If the Ballistic missile attack on Kyiv is to go ahead, the most likely thing to be targeted is defence industries meaning drone producing facilities may take a heavy blow tonight aswell as any weapon making industries in general

Russia stopped producing the jet-powered Geran-3, which became a transitional step toward the Geran-4, according to Ukraine’s HUR. The Geran-3 largely retained the Geran-2 airframe while replacing its piston engine with a Telefly JT80 jet engine. The newer Geran-4 instead uses an airframe specifically adapted for the more powerful Telefly LX-WP-160, increasing both cruising speed and range.

Geran-3 hasn't been spotted in use for a while now, so this makes sense. The Geran-4 is much more effective in pretty much every aspect.

Large Geran-2 drone attack on Kherson City is ongoing right now.

This is the second large Geran attack on Kherson in the last week, which is unusual as Russia mainly uses artillery, FPV drones, MLRS, and KABs for attacks here.

Russia is accumulating several thousand Geran-2/4/5 and Gerbera drones for massive attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the winter. Also, the Ukrainian Air Force figures you see are misleading, as they only include the 12 "night" hours of the day, and not the other 12 daytime hours. So it is a lot more than 150 per day, but still not as much as it was earlier this year.

Also, Russia has apparently slowed the production of Geran-2 to prioritise the Geran-4, so there may be a period of smaller attacks while they try to catch up on production rates.

Geran-2 drones in Kherson are targeting the city's energy infrastructure. There were at least 12 impacts. Somehow, air raid alerts weren't activated until after the 8th drone impacted...

Ukrainian intelligence seems to believe that Russia could attack energy infrastructure as a part of its upcoming combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine, as excess heat in summer can create extra strain on the power grid.

Specifically, they could potentially target 330 kV and 750 kV electrical substations in Kyiv Oblast. Over the last two days, substations and thermal power plants have been attacked in the cities of Odesa and Kherson.

Russia has seemingly started equipping their Geran-2/4 drones with electronic warfare equipment, as a countermeasure against increased Ukrainian interceptor drone usage.

In the video, a Ukrainian interceptor drone is seen being jammed as it approaches the Geran, before losing signal.

Ukrainian interceptor drones were originally intended to shoot down Russian drones flying out of range of ordinary machine-gun fire from mobile fire groups. If this counter-measure if properly implemented, it could significantly increase the impact rate of Russian Geran drones.

Possible Zircon in Sumy Oblast

Flying to Kyiv

3 missiles