Kupyansk direction, Kharkiv oblast. An indepth look.

We are currently seeing the continuation of the general Russian strategy of large-scale infiltration, with occasionally successful consolidation behind. Many overlapping and mixed positions of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are geolocated in Podoly, Kupyansk-Vuzlovyy, and the city of Kupyansk. I map these areas as grey zone when the positions are too mixed for either side to use the area as a "launching pad" for future infiltrations. As a general rule of thumb, red areas on the map are areas where Russian consolidation is strong enough for soldiers to accumulate and then use features such as treelines to infiltrate into Ukrainian held territory. In the case of Kupyansk direction, this infiltration zone extends so far that it wouldn't be practical to overcomplicate the map and use large grey zones. By the very technical definition, however, it could be argued, that the grey zone could extend all the way to Pishchane.

This is the topographic map overlayed with a rough line of contact. As you can see, Russian forces control some tactical heights southeast of Kivsharivka overlooking Hlushkivka to their west. They also control some of the other side of the Oskil river valley northwest of Kupyansk. After the failed attempt of the RuAF to take Kupyansk in 2025, Russian forces launched a more concentrated effort to consolidate control of the eastern bank of the Oskil and therefore massively improve their logistics in a future effort to take Kupyansk. However, Russian progress has been delayed (like it has on many sectors of the front) by Ukrainian "drone walls", which force Russia to use slow infiltration tactics, often sending soldiers in groups of 2-4 to take a very small key position (such as a bunker or a treeline). Often, however, they are spotted by drones and forced to retreat or eliminated.

The latest sentinel imagery from this direction shows continued Russian shelling efforts in Kivsharivka and Novoosynove, and KAB glide bomb strikes in many of the fields between the agglomeration of settlements. This is a reflection of the larger Russian attritional effort - the priority is inflicting attrition by means of heavier munitions until the Ukrainian forces on the ground are too weak to hold the particular area - Then Russian forces move in with infiltrating tactics.

In the short-medium term, expect the similar general Russian tactics in this area to continue - mass bombardment followed by DRG and assault group infiltrations, methodically clearing Ukrainian presence on the eastern bank of the river. As supply will likely continue to be difficult and reliant upon drone-dropped supply and pontoon boats across the river, Russian forces should soon be able to clear the area and have secured supply lines to make a more coordinated effort on Kupyansk yet again.

Earlier this evening, Russia launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile at western Dnipro.

The missile was equipped with a cluster warhead, as evidenced by smoke left after the release of cluster munitions in the air. A fire subsequently broke out after the strike.

Following the Iskander-M ballistic missile strike, at least five Russian Geran-4 and Geran-5 jet-drones attacked Dnipro, sparking multiple fires in the city.

Overnight, Russia carried out a large-scale Geran-2 drone attack on Kherson City, targeting energy infrastructure in the Dniprovs'kyi district, as well as other targets in the Tavriysky and Northern Districts.

As a result of the strikes, large fires broke out at the impact sites. Among the targets hit may have been the Kherson Thermal Power Plant.

Ukraine carried out another large-scale drone attack on Crimea overnight.

Explosions were reported in Sevastopol, Balaklava, Bakhchysaray, and Saky, from a mix of drone impacts and interceptions. Power outages were reported in some parts of Crimea.