The death toll from the Ukrainian drone crash on a crowded beach near the city of Gelendzhik, Krasnodar Krai, has risen to 6, including 3 children.

At least 40 others were injured.

A few hours ago, an extremely unusual event occurred in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where a Russian Su-34 aircraft flew within 7 km of the frontline to carry out simulated launch maneuvers of KAB glide-bombs.

The aircraft then looped back around and carried out a second simulated launch maneuver around 2 minutes after the first. No munitions were actually launched.

For reference, Su-34s typically launch glide-bombs from around 40-45 km behind the frontline to avoid being shot down by Patriot PAC-2/3 interceptors. It's possible that this aircraft was probing to see if there would be any air defence response by the Ukrainians.

The claims of an organised withdrawal seem to primarily be about excusing why Russia has made progress here rather than reporting the truth. A core problem is that the sources that have claimed this (which as far as I'm aware are primarily western pro-Ukrainians rather than primary sources) are basing their understanding of this front off Deepstate which is 6+ months behind.

A sudden Russian 'breakthrough' is the claim based off the distance they seem to have covered from Deepstate's frontline vs new geolocations, but if you use more up to date maps (such as AMK's here or Suriyak's) then the distance they have pushed is not nearly as far. It looks more like months of slow Russian pressure paying off a bit rather than any planned withdrawal or major breakthrough.

*Regarding the recent Russian advances in the Dobropillya direction.

I agree. I don't think there is any organised withdrawal. This is a result of critical Ukrainian manpower shortages.

—❗️🇮🇷/🇺🇦 Official military advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, IRGC Major General Mohsen Rezaee:

‘We had prepared to strike three different locations in Ukraine, but after they publicly apologized for striking our vessel, we decided not to escalate.’

@Middle_East_Spectator

This confirms the accuracy of my information I posted at the time, of there being a threat of 3 Iranian missile launches. https://t.me/AMK_Mapping/34715

It was bound to happen eventually. Too much freedom of speech here.

It's been removed here in New Zealand too.

Apple users, whatever you do, don't update your Telegram app.

Yesterday, Ukraine's "40 day operation" to force Russia to negotiate through immense economic destruction quietly ended.

The goals of this operation were not achieved, and today Ukraine is in a worse position than they were 40 days ago. While Russia suffered extensive damage to their so-called "Shadow Fleet", their Wildberries warehouses, and their oil infrastructure, they did not suffer any major economic struggles beyond what they have already faced.

The strikes on Crimea have slowed as countermeasures improved, along with the strikes on their oil tankers.

In turn, Russia launched their own wave of attacks on Ukraine's port infrastructure. And unlike Russia, Ukraine's port infrastructure is concentrated in a small part of their coastline along Odesa Oblast. These ports are responsible for 70% of their total exports and over 90% of their agricultural exports. These Russian retaliatory attacks are being carried out with many times more force than Ukraine's, and involve a wide variety of weapons, including drones, jet-drones, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, and ballistic missiles.

The 40 day operation has had precisely zero effect on the frontline for Ukraine, with the economic effects slowly becoming less and less significant. This is why we aren't seeing anyone in the U.S., Europe, or Ukraine announce the end of the campaign, as it fades away quietly to soon be replaced by some other PR-oriented campaign to try sway the opinions of the masses. In the end, in a war of attrition, the frontline always takes priority. Strategic-level strikes are only one component of a holistic war.

It's also a good lesson why you should never put timelines on things. It's why we don't ever see Russia doing this.

Telegram is back on the App Store.

Rebekah Maciorowski - a Sergeant in the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade - indicates that the situation in the Kramatorsk/Slovyansk direction is dire for Ukraine right now.

A Russian FPV drone operator hunts down and strikes a Ukrainian civilian fruit seller in Kherson City.

At least 5 Russian Su-34s are operating over Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts right now, launching KAB glide-bombs.

The eastern approaches to Slovyansk are under attack from KAB glide-bombs. A reconnaissance drone is adjusting the strikes. Explosions are heard in Slovyansk.

*Image is from 6 minutes ago

Russian Geran-4 jet-drone strikes on six cargo ships in the western Black Sea and Mykolaiv Port.