20 km. Chornomorsk/southern Odesa

First one is approaching. Others following.

1 impact near Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast.

Another one approaching.

Another impact.

More explosions.

All clear on missiles now.

Smoke rising over Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast, following the Oniks supersonic cruise missile impacts.

Another image from Chornomorsk.

2 of the missiles impacted somewhere here. The target was likely the Chornomorsk Port.

More from Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast. It definitely looks like the port was hit.

Speaking of close to the frontline, I believe one way in which Russia could significantly ramp up attrition on the AFU, depending on production rates, is by employing Geran-2 long range strike UAVs in a more tactical role - that is, using them to strike frontline positions.

This was originally proposed as a potential Russian tactic by WillyOAM.

Apparently Russia is also equipping new Chinese-manufactured optical cameras to Geran-4 jet-drones in order to further increase their accuracy. One such case was recorded in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast a couple of days ago.

Due to Russian attacks, the entire city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, is currently without power.

This has been happening more and more frequently recently, for both Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

According to available information, over the last few months, Russia has accumulated a significant number of Kalibr and Iskander-K cruise missiles, which will likely be used in fairly large numbers as a part of upcoming combined missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.

Ukrainian reports suggest that Russia has at least 430 Kalibr cruise missiles and 130 Iskander-K cruise missiles available, which could replace other missiles that have been used in significant numbers recently, such as Kh-101s and Kh-59/69s.

Additionally, Russia has been accumulating large numbers of Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles for the last few months, and has at least 120 available for use. These will be used both as a part of large-scale attacks, and individual strikes on Ukrainian airbases (namely Starokostyantyniv, as well as possibly Ozerne).

As for Iskander-M ballistic missiles, due to exceptionally high usage over the last month, Russia has depleted their available stockpiles quite a lot. However, due to a very high production rate of 60-75 missiles per month, they still retain the ability to carry out repeated and fairly frequent attacks, despite the necessity to reserve a number of missiles for opportunistic and targeted strikes.

Additionally, the usage of modified S-400 ballistic missiles allows Russia to partially supplement these attacks, providing additional room for stockpiles to be replenished while still achieving similar levels of damage. However, it should be noted that these missiles are generally easier to shoot down by patriot systems and have a much lower accuracy compared to the Iskander-M.

Kn-23 ballistic missiles can also be used for this purpose, as Russia likely received new missiles from North Korea recently. While the accuracy of these missiles has been significantly upgraded, some of the older missiles remain in Russia's stockpiles, as evidenced by the recent strike on a residential area near Kryvyi Rih.

As for Zircons, while Russia has been outpacing their production rate by several times over, they still retain at least 170 of these missiles in their stockpiles due to extensive accumulation over the last three years. Therefore, it is likely that Russia does not intend to majorly decrease the usage of these missiles any time soon.

If I have time, tomorrow I will post a full situational analysis on the situation on the Dobropillya direction.

In short - it's extremely bad for Ukraine, and has sharply deteriorated. Some of the strongest positions on the entire frontline are falling very quickly in an extremely unusual manner.

The situation on the Dobropillya direction is likely even worse for Ukraine than what my map currently shows.

But I'm still clarifying certain details.

The IRGC claims to have shot down a U.S. MQ-9 "Reaper" drone operating over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iskander-M on Pryluky, Chernihiv Oblast.

Flying past Romny, Sumy Oblast