High threat of Oniks supersonic cruise missile launches to Odesa from Crimea

Oniks missile to Odesa

2 missiles

Flying to Zatoka/Chornomorsk

2 Su-34s and 2 Su-35s over Sevastopol. They may launch Kh-59/69 cruise missiles to Odesa.

Missiles are 120 km from the coast

Right now they are flying to Karolino-Buhaz, Odesa Oblast. 40 km from the coast.

Over the coastline. Flying to Bilhood-Dnistrovskyi

They disappeared. Explosions were reported.

2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles were launched from the Su-34s, flying to Yuzhnyi Port, Odesa Oblast.

50 km from the coast, flying to Odesa City/port now.

These look like secondary detonations.

Local channels report ongoing secondary detonations at the site of the explosion in Khmelnytskyi.

Footage showing the moment of the massive explosion in Khmelnytskyi, likely at an ammunition depot.

Ukrainian journalist Yuliya Kyriyenko reports that the supply of mobilised men to the 425th Assault Regiment "Skala" and the 1st Assault Regiment has been temporarily suspended by the new Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi.

Additionally, at the 225th Assault Regiment, mobilisation for the unit through the TCC has stopped, although men mobilised prior to this are still arriving for the time being.

These three units were part of former Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's "personal assault army", and had a total priority for newly mobilised men, resulting in significant understaffing issues for other units. This could indicate Drapatyi intends to decrease the size of these units, which at the moment are over 50,000 strong despite only having the "regiment" status, and reform the structure and layout of them back to more "conventional" units.

It is odd how many ammunition depots have been exploding in Ukraine recently.

On June 22 in Pavlohrad, on July 21 in Kamianske, and now today in Khmelnytskyi. Could be a coincidence, or could be Russian intelligence operations. No way to know right now.

❗️Tonight, there is a high threat of Russia carrying out a large-scale ballistic missile attack against Kyiv.

Russia has accumulated at least 30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles at launch sites in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts. These are the missiles which I originally thought would be used in yesterday's attack, but have instead been reserved for the next attack.

This attack will not involve strategic aviation. It will also likely not involve a large number (more than 200) of Geran-2 drones. It will probably only be carried out with Iskander-M and Zircon missiles, along with Banderol jet-drones.

The information about the attack is relevant for tonight only, however it is not certain that it will indeed occur tonight. This threat may be extended for the coming days as well. The threat is relevant for both Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. Other regions being attacked is not ruled out.

This is where Russia launches Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles towards Kyiv from.

Deliveries of missiles have occurred to most, if not all of these locations in the last week.