Aerial image of the crater from the Russian Kh-101 cruise missile strike on a field near the village of Targowisko, eastern Poland.

For the next few days, there is an increased threat of another large-scale Russian missile attack on Ukraine without strategic aviation.

During today's attack, only around 8 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles were launched. If you remember what I reported yesterday, Russia has accumulated at least 35 of these missiles in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts.

In my opinion, up to 30 Iskander-M and Zircons are ready be to launched, probably towards Kyiv. If the attack doesn't take place tomorrow, it could occur sometime this weekend.

Ok, so something isn't adding up with the reports by the Polish Defence Ministry about the Russian Kh-101 cruise missile incursion into Polish airspace.

The Polish Defence Minister states that at 3:29am, one missile came within 5 km of the Polish border, and speculates that because the missile "turned east" away from Poland prior to entering their airspace before suddenly being detected in Polish airspace 11 minutes later (flying west), there there could be a potential "radar shadow" in their defence systems.

This is not true.

I've colour-coded the approximate missile flight map with the Polish Defence Minister's statement to make this easier to visualise.

At 3:29am, the closest missile to the Polish border was detected by Ukrainian radars southeast of the city of Dubno, Riven Oblast, around 150 km from the Polish border. It was not "5 km away" like the defence minister claims.

For the next 10 minutes, the missile flew another 150 km at a speed of approximately 900 km/h, over the city of Volodymyr in Volyn Oblast. I reported on the missile entering Polish airspace at 3:38:41 am, approximately via the Ukrainian border village of Ustyluh.

According to the Polish Defence Minister, this missile was detected flying west through Polish airspace a little over one minute after my report, at 3:40am. The missile went out of range of the main Ukrainian radars at around 3:43am. The Polish defence ministry reports that the missile disappeared from Polish radars (after impacting) at 3:46am.

Flying at 900 km/h, the missile would have flown around 90 km in 6 minutes. The impact site in the Polish village of Targowisko is about 92.5 km from the Ukrainian border, which matches his claim almost perfectly.

So, what does this mean? There is most likely not a Polish "radar shadow", like the defence minister speculates in his post. Instead, they either detected a false aerial target, or, alternatively, misidentified a Ukrainian fighter jet as a cruise missile. There is currently no way to know what actually happened here.

But what is known for certain is that there were no missiles near Polish airspace at 3:29am, and the missile which impacted Poland entered their airspace at around 3:39:00 am.

Notably, the defence minister indicates he thinks the most likely scenario was that the programmed Kh-101 missile malfunctioned at one of its waypoints. I have no information to confirm or deny this. All I know is what I have said here.

Note: the timestamps on the Telegram screenshot are of my local time zone (New Zealand).

Remember when this was considered Russian propaganda? Remember how so-called pro-Ukrainians doxxed me for saying EXACTLY THIS?

I've been saying this for years.

This is a war of attrition, where you prioritise destroying your enemy's capability to fight over forcing advances on the frontline.

Both Reuters and Zelensky confirmed my earlier information about Russia using North Korean-made Kn-23 ballistic missiles to attack the city of Kryvyi Rih yesterday.

Kryvyi Rih was attacked by 4 Kn-23 missiles. One impacted a residential building. 2 other Kn-23 missiles struck near the city of Kropyvnytskyi, Kirovohrad Oblast.

For those curious, during the attack, the missiles which struck Kryvyi Rih were detected by Ukrainian radars flying at a speed of 7,879 km/h, before dropping to a speed of 5,673 km/h at a 20 km altitude as they dropped into their terminal phase.

Ukrainian radars also failed to detect them until they were flying over Dnipro, around 150 km away from impacting.

The Kn-23 ballistic missiles were launched from near the city of Liski, Voronezh Oblast.

To reach Kryvyi Rih, they flew approximately 550 km.
To reach Kropyvnytskyi 580 km.

Trump announced that Hamas and their allied factions in the Gaza Strip will disarm as a part of the 20-point plan.

As disarmament is being completed, Israeli forces will withdraw from the Gaza Strip, with the International Stabilisation Force and a new Palestinian police force replacing them to take responsibility over the strip.

The 6 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers that took part in yesterday's large-scale missile attack on Ukraine are returning from Olenya Airbase to Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East.

Here, they will either carry out training missions or be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles ahead of the next large-scale attack on Ukraine.

For the record, it's been a war of attrition since the battle of Severodonetsk in June 2022.

The current Russian high-intensity offensive across the entire front began on October 10, 2023 with their storming of the Avdiivka direction, and has not stopped since.

Possible Iskander-M on Putvyl, Sumy Oblast

Edit: likely Russian S-300 air defence from Kursk

What looks like 2 Flamingo missile interceptions over Rostov

More missiles are flying southeast over Donetsk Oblast to Rostov.

No impacts in Rostov so far. 2/2 missiles shot down.

The next missiles will reach the city in the next several minutes.

2 other missiles (from the first wave) were shot down over Donetsk Oblast.