Jordan's military claims that 5 Iranian ballistic missiles were shot down in the most recent Iranian attack on U.S. military bases.

Another Russian "Wildberries" warehouse has been struck by Ukrainian drones, this time in the city of Penza, resulting in a large fire breaking out.

Iskander-M ballistic missile threat from Liski, Voronezh Oblast

Clarifications on tonight's missile figures:

52 Kh-101 cruise missiles were launched, not 48.
4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles were launched, not 3.

Therefore, we have an updated total of 83 missiles launched.

Last night Russia launched a total of 52 Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukraine, using 6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers and 3 modernised Tu-160M strategic bombers.

This is the largest number of Kh-101 missiles launched in a single night since December 13, 2024, and by far the largest since Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb attacks on Russian strategic aviation on June 1, 2025.

Oniks supersonic cruise missile on Odesa

2 missiles

Current course is to the Odesa Port.

~3 mins away

Changing course to Yuzhnyi Port.

Approaching the coast.

Flying to northern Odesa

4 missiles in total

Explosion in Odesa

3 more approaching.

Repeated explosions in Odesa.

The sound of a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile impacting near the village of Targowisko, eastern Poland, this morning.

In the video, you can hear the missile releasing two sets of flares as a countermeasure against air defence systems, confirming it was still intact up to one second before impacting the field.

Aerial image of the crater from the Russian Kh-101 cruise missile strike on a field near the village of Targowisko, eastern Poland.

For the next few days, there is an increased threat of another large-scale Russian missile attack on Ukraine without strategic aviation.

During today's attack, only around 8 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles were launched. If you remember what I reported yesterday, Russia has accumulated at least 35 of these missiles in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts.

In my opinion, up to 30 Iskander-M and Zircons are ready be to launched, probably towards Kyiv. If the attack doesn't take place tomorrow, it could occur sometime this weekend.

Ok, so something isn't adding up with the reports by the Polish Defence Ministry about the Russian Kh-101 cruise missile incursion into Polish airspace.

The Polish Defence Minister states that at 3:29am, one missile came within 5 km of the Polish border, and speculates that because the missile "turned east" away from Poland prior to entering their airspace before suddenly being detected in Polish airspace 11 minutes later (flying west), there there could be a potential "radar shadow" in their defence systems.

This is not true.

I've colour-coded the approximate missile flight map with the Polish Defence Minister's statement to make this easier to visualise.

At 3:29am, the closest missile to the Polish border was detected by Ukrainian radars southeast of the city of Dubno, Riven Oblast, around 150 km from the Polish border. It was not "5 km away" like the defence minister claims.

For the next 10 minutes, the missile flew another 150 km at a speed of approximately 900 km/h, over the city of Volodymyr in Volyn Oblast. I reported on the missile entering Polish airspace at 3:38:41 am, approximately via the Ukrainian border village of Ustyluh.

According to the Polish Defence Minister, this missile was detected flying west through Polish airspace a little over one minute after my report, at 3:40am. The missile went out of range of the main Ukrainian radars at around 3:43am. The Polish defence ministry reports that the missile disappeared from Polish radars (after impacting) at 3:46am.

Flying at 900 km/h, the missile would have flown around 90 km in 6 minutes. The impact site in the Polish village of Targowisko is about 92.5 km from the Ukrainian border, which matches his claim almost perfectly.

So, what does this mean? There is most likely not a Polish "radar shadow", like the defence minister speculates in his post. Instead, they either detected a false aerial target, or, alternatively, misidentified a Ukrainian fighter jet as a cruise missile. There is currently no way to know what actually happened here.

But what is known for certain is that there were no missiles near Polish airspace at 3:29am, and the missile which impacted Poland entered their airspace at around 3:39:00 am.

Notably, the defence minister indicates he thinks the most likely scenario was that the programmed Kh-101 missile malfunctioned at one of its waypoints. I have no information to confirm or deny this. All I know is what I have said here.

Note: the timestamps on the Telegram screenshot are of my local time zone (New Zealand).