What could be used tonight:

- Up to 50 Kh-101 cruise missiles (definitely)
- Up to 35 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles (definitely)
- Up to 8 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles (very likely)
- Up to 16 Kalibr cruise missiles (likely)
- Multiple Kh-59/69 cruise missiles (likely)
- Multiple Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles (less likely, but still possible)
- 400-800 Geran-2/3/3/5 drones and Banderol jet drones

The highest threat is to Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. Odesa Oblast may also be attacked (separately) as usual.

There is also a threat to the central regions of Ukraine (Kirovohrad, Poltava Oblasts), as well as Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia Oblasts, although this could be related to potential Geran drone strikes.

The targets of the attack will be defence industries, railway infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and airbases. These are to be hit with a mix of missiles and drones.

The Ukrainian Air Force announced that a Ukrainian F-16 crashed while carrying out a combat mission aimed at intercepting Russian missiles/drones near the frontline.

They attributed the crash to an “abnormal situation” onboard, rather than a Russian interception, forcing the pilot to eject. The pilot reportedly survived, and is being medically treated.

Mass launches of Russian Geran-2/Gerbera drones have begun from Tsumbulova Test Site (Oryol Oblast), Khalino Airbase (Kursk Oblast), and Shatalovo Airbase (Smolensk Oblast).

Up to 50 drones are expected. More will be launched later in additional waves.

A drone struck a U.S.-owned gas storage ‌tanker at Egypt's Damietta Port, resulting in a fire breaking out.

It is not yet known if the drone was Iranian, although Trump indicated that it was, and that the U.S. will carry out retaliatory strikes against Iran soon.

Explosions were heard in the cities of Zlatopil, Bohodukhiv, Merefa, and Lyubotyn in Kharkiv Oblast from Russian Geran-2/3/4 drone strikes.

Trump loves the war in Ukraine continuing. It buys them time.

Remember, the U.S. has the policy of "extend Russia", which involves keeping Russia bogged down in Ukraine so the U.S. can focus on countering the rise of China. Then once the war in Ukraine is over, they will try to pull Russia away from China.

As such, they are sacrificing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians for this effort, while creating the illusion of supporting peace negotiations.

As of now, no communications on Russian strategic combat frequencies have been recorded.

However, if the launches take place from the launch lines in Vologda Oblast, any activity may not be recorded for another 2 hours.

Around 9 minutes ago, communications were recorded between Olenya Airbase and strategic command and control in Moscow.

Departures of 6-8 Tu-95MS strategic bombers from Olenya Airbase are expected within the hour. They will then launch Kh-101 cruise missiles together with the 3+ Tu-160M strategic flying from Ukrainka Airbase, as I reported earlier.

Residents of Kyiv reading this: I would recommend being extra careful tonight. It is not yet known if all missiles will fly to Kyiv, or if some/most will target other regions. But if they do all target Kyiv, there will be a lot of them + drones.

Please stay safe and respond to all air raid alerts.

There is also a threat for Odesa Oblast tonight. More info will be available later.

More explosions are heard in the cities of Krasnokutsk and Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast. A large-scale Geran-2 drone attack continues.

Possible ballistic missile launch from Yazd, central Iran (NOT FLYING TO UKRAINE)

2 explosions were heard, sounding similar to that of ballistic missile launches.

Awaiting confirmation.

No alerts in any gulf states. The explosions were likely unrelated to any missile launches.

Reports of Tu-95MS strategic bombers taking off from Olenya Airbase are false.

As of now, at least 40 Geran-2/Gerbera drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace. 20-30 drones launched from Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast, earlier are entering Chernihiv Oblast.

According to preliminary information, the western regions of Ukraine could also be targeted by Kh-101 cruise missiles tonight.

The number of Russian Geran-2/Gerbera drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has increased to ~50. Most of them will likely fly to Kyiv.

Departures of 6-8 Tu-95MS strategic bombers from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, are expected in the near future.

Some reports indicate they have taken off just now.

Awaiting confirmation.

At least 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers departed from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast.