Russian forces have captured the village of Pavlivka, Druzhkivka direction, Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk District).

Pre-war population: ~42.
Total land area: ~0.23 km².

Russian forces have captured the village of Pryyut, Druzhkivka direction, Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk District).

Pre-war population: ~42.
Total land area: ~0.72 km².

Iran was considering launching an attack on a seaport in Ukraine, but following a flurry of diplomacy the situation has calmed for now, according to the NYT.

Russia has completed preparations for its next large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine, which will likely take place tonight.

Up to 6 Tu-160M strategic bombers and up to 6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers have been equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. Not all of these aircraft will be used in this one attack.

Additionally, up to 35 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles could be launched from Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, and Rostov Oblast. There is also a threat of North Korean-supplied Kn-23 ballistic missiles being launched separately from near Liski, Voronezh Oblast.

Furthermore, there is a possibility of 8-16 Kalibr cruise missiles being launched from vessels of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at Novorossiysk Naval Base, although this is not confirmed yet.

The highest threat is to Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. Other regions are at risk too.

6 Tu-95MS are redeploying from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East to Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast. They will land in the next 2 hours.

Additionally, up to 7 Tu-160M strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase, some of which will be used in this upcoming attack.

It's looking like the attack will indeed take place tonight, but I will update you all later, in the morning (my time zone).

Russia has begun its large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

At least 3 Tu-160M strategic bombers are airborne from Ukrainka Airbase, flying to the western regions of Russia for launches of Kh-101 cruise missiles. They took off around an hour ago.

It is not clear if they intend to launch missiles from the launch lines at Vologda Oblast or Saratov/Volgograd Oblast yet.

6-8 Tu-95MS are expected to take off from Olenya Airbase some time in the next few hours, where they will conduct launches alongside the Tu-160M aircraft.

What could be used tonight:

- Up to 50 Kh-101 cruise missiles (definitely)
- Up to 35 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles (definitely)
- Up to 8 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles (very likely)
- Up to 16 Kalibr cruise missiles (likely)
- Multiple Kh-59/69 cruise missiles (likely)
- Multiple Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles (less likely, but still possible)
- 400-800 Geran-2/3/3/5 drones and Banderol jet drones

The highest threat is to Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. Odesa Oblast may also be attacked (separately) as usual.

There is also a threat to the central regions of Ukraine (Kirovohrad, Poltava Oblasts), as well as Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia Oblasts, although this could be related to potential Geran drone strikes.

The targets of the attack will be defence industries, railway infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and airbases. These are to be hit with a mix of missiles and drones.

The Ukrainian Air Force announced that a Ukrainian F-16 crashed while carrying out a combat mission aimed at intercepting Russian missiles/drones near the frontline.

They attributed the crash to an “abnormal situation” onboard, rather than a Russian interception, forcing the pilot to eject. The pilot reportedly survived, and is being medically treated.

Mass launches of Russian Geran-2/Gerbera drones have begun from Tsumbulova Test Site (Oryol Oblast), Khalino Airbase (Kursk Oblast), and Shatalovo Airbase (Smolensk Oblast).

Up to 50 drones are expected. More will be launched later in additional waves.

A drone struck a U.S.-owned gas storage ‌tanker at Egypt's Damietta Port, resulting in a fire breaking out.

It is not yet known if the drone was Iranian, although Trump indicated that it was, and that the U.S. will carry out retaliatory strikes against Iran soon.

Explosions were heard in the cities of Zlatopil, Bohodukhiv, Merefa, and Lyubotyn in Kharkiv Oblast from Russian Geran-2/3/4 drone strikes.

Trump loves the war in Ukraine continuing. It buys them time.

Remember, the U.S. has the policy of "extend Russia", which involves keeping Russia bogged down in Ukraine so the U.S. can focus on countering the rise of China. Then once the war in Ukraine is over, they will try to pull Russia away from China.

As such, they are sacrificing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians for this effort, while creating the illusion of supporting peace negotiations.

As of now, no communications on Russian strategic combat frequencies have been recorded.

However, if the launches take place from the launch lines in Vologda Oblast, any activity may not be recorded for another 2 hours.

Around 9 minutes ago, communications were recorded between Olenya Airbase and strategic command and control in Moscow.

Departures of 6-8 Tu-95MS strategic bombers from Olenya Airbase are expected within the hour. They will then launch Kh-101 cruise missiles together with the 3+ Tu-160M strategic flying from Ukrainka Airbase, as I reported earlier.

Residents of Kyiv reading this: I would recommend being extra careful tonight. It is not yet known if all missiles will fly to Kyiv, or if some/most will target other regions. But if they do all target Kyiv, there will be a lot of them + drones.

Please stay safe and respond to all air raid alerts.

There is also a threat for Odesa Oblast tonight. More info will be available later.

More explosions are heard in the cities of Krasnokutsk and Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast. A large-scale Geran-2 drone attack continues.

Possible ballistic missile launch from Yazd, central Iran (NOT FLYING TO UKRAINE)

2 explosions were heard, sounding similar to that of ballistic missile launches.

Awaiting confirmation.

No alerts in any gulf states. The explosions were likely unrelated to any missile launches.

Reports of Tu-95MS strategic bombers taking off from Olenya Airbase are false.