Smoke is rising over Odesa following the Russian Banderol jet-drone strikes.

Interesting to note:

ISW claims net Ukrainian GAINS of territory for the past few months.

If that's the case, and we run with the narrative of body exchanges favouring russia ENTIRELY because they are advancing,

why do body exchanges still vastly favour Russia despite Ukraine allegedly advancing?

The IRGC announced that this most recent ballistic missile attack targeted the Al-Tanf military base in eastern Syria, which they claim hosted a U.S. special operations forces command and control centre.

They claim that the strikes destroyed a radar system, special operations helicopters, and killed a "large number" of U.S. special operations soldiers.

Note: The U.S. fully withdrew from the Al-Tanf base in February 2026.

The Iranian Army announced attacking the U.S. military infrastructure in Kuwait using Arash-2 drones.

They claimed to have targeted locations for housing U.S. soldiers and logistical support centres.

— There is evidently a very limited suppression of Iranian missile bases currently. Iran is launching very freely, comfortably, and at a leisurely pace.

Why? Most importantly because Israel is not involved. Iran is huge, it’s impossible for the U.S. to suppress western and southern Iran simultaneously 24/7. Previously, Israel took care of the western areas in Iran.

Secondly, Iran is launching so many missiles and drones at U.S. bases that they themselves are being suppressed.

Muwaffaq Salti, Al-Udeid, these types of primary forward bases have been rendered pretty much useless at this stage of the war. The U.S. is now extremely reliant on its carriers in the Arabian Sea.

Lastly, in many cases, U.S. aviation is being forced to carry out ‘secondary duties’ like defending UAE / Bahraini / Saudi airspace from attacks, due to critically low interceptor stockpiles. This limits their availability for combat missions.

@Middle_East_Spectator

Zelensky claims that a Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber was destroyed by a Ukrainian SBU long-range drone at Engels-2 Airbase, during yesterday's attack.

At the time of the attack, one Tu-95MS was present at the airbase, and was there only for training purposes. It was not involved in any combat operations.

This claim by Zelensky remains unconfirmed as of the time of writing.

A Ukrainian mapping channel reports that Ukrainian soldiers received a "huge number of threats" from command structures yesterday, due to their criticisms of Syrskyi, following the dismissal of Defence Minister Fedorov.

Due to recent advances, Russian forces have now established control over large parts of the tactical ridgeline between the Bakhmut-Siversk line and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka line, putting the last 3 cities of this so-called "fortress belt" at major risk.

With the battle for Kostyantynivka now in its final stages, Russia is developing an offensive in arguably the most crucial part of the entire frontline. Once they are able to capture the entirety of this ridgeline, all of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk will be within range of barrel artillery, and the battles for the cities will effectively start. This, combined with a push from Kostyantynivka and even the Dobropillya area, will be a major setback for Ukraine, and could mark the beginning of the end for these last Donbas cities.

Right now, special attention is being made by the Russian command on clearing the remaining heavily fortified Ukrainian positions between Siversk and Slovyansk, in order to complete their goal of capturing this crucial line of tactical heights. This will allow Russia to bring forward drone operators, barrel artillery, and MLRS to within range of new areas, and allow for deep DRG infiltrations, possibly as far as the eastern outskirts of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk itself.

At the same time, the fall of Kostyantynivka and the beginning of battles for Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka will pose a major threat to Druzhkivka, as the near-continuous and unbroken line of urban areas stretching from Kostyantynivka to Druzhkivka, and even to Kramatorsk, provides cover for additional deep Russian infiltrations.

As of now, forward Russian assault groups are just 5.5 km from the Kramatorsk Airport on the eastern outskirts of the city. The situation is critical, and without counterattacks, it will continue to massively worsen over the coming weeks and months.