Schrödinger's Russia:

According to Europe, they are simultaneously about to collapse in Ukraine and launch an invasion into NATO.

Interesting article about Ukrainian missile evolution:
https://telegra.ph/From-Storms-to-Flamingos-what-does-Ukraines-arsenal-currently-consist-of-07-04

2 missiles to Dnipro. Unknown type.

15 km away. These are Kh-59/69 cruise missiles

Over the city

Explosions in Dnipro. 3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles were used.

Repeated explosions in Dnipro.

Smoke is rising over Dnipro following the Kh-59/69 cruise missile strikes.

Iskander-M on Dnipro

Disappeared.

Another missile is flying

Explosions were heard near the Synelnykove-1 Railway Station in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

It is unclear if this was from the Iskander-M ballistic missiles or Geran-3 jet-drones.

Regarding the situation in Kostyantynivka:

Yesterday I wrote that the claims by the Russian Ministry of Defence about the supposed capture of Kostyantynivka were false and premature, and that remains the case today. However, the battle for the city has entered its final stages.

Russian forces were able to consolidate their positions in the northeastern part of the city around 10 days ago, which allowed them to rapidly gain control over most of the so-called "Historical Centre", which had seen prolonged battles due to the continued presence of Ukrainian positions on the edges of the city, which had forced the Russians to employ small infiltration tactics. With these positions now finally under Russian control, they have achieved a high level of freedom of movement in this part of the city, allowing them to establish control over additional parts of the private sector and physically cut the highway by capturing the nearby former industrial zone.

As a result, several groups of Ukrainian soldiers have been encircled in the eastern part of Kostyantynivka, likely numbering no more than 50 in total. While they are under an encirclement, some of them may retain the ability to escape by slipping through Russian lines, similar to what we saw in Myrnohrad earlier this year. Russian forces were shelling Ukrainian positions in the eastern part of the city as recent as a week ago. Since then, this part of the city has probably shifted to a zone of overlapping positions, with a dominant Russian advantage as they complete their clearing operations. It is expected that the eastern part of the city will be under solid Russian control within a week. In addition to this, Russian forces were able to clear the remaining Ukrainian positions in the southwestern part of Kostyantynivka and captured the remaining inner industrial zones.

In the northern and northwestern parts of Kostyantynivka, the Russians continued to steadily advance, while infiltrators pushed deeper, well beyond the zone of control, even as far as Osyokove, the outskirts of Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka, and the fields northwest of Kostyantynivka. This puts the newly-established Ukrainian drone operator positions in Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka at increased risk of being pushed back even further towards Druzhkivka, which would significantly disrupt their strike operations.

Ukrainian reconnaissance drone operators are currently focusing on establishing full and constant surveillance over the northern and central parts of Kostyantynivka, identifying the Russian infiltration routes towards the remaining Ukrainian positions in the northern and northwestern parts of the city, in order to alleviate the pressure and allow the controlled and phased withdrawal beyond the city limits to continue. A Ukrainian counterattack using armoured vehicles was repelled by Russian FPV drones between Osykove and Kostyantynivka, as Russian drone operators maintain strong fire control over the roads in this area. Russian drone operators are also increasing their attacks on Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and the Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk Highway, further complicating Ukrainian logistical operations.

As a result of these recent pushes into the northern and northwestern parts of Kostyantynivka, Russian assault groups managed to clear a series of Ukrainian strongholds in the Novoselivka District and the northernmost part of the city, and are fighting for the remaining residential blocks of these districts. Heavy shelling of the entrance to Kostyantynivka was recorded in the past week ahead of the recent flag planting operations on the outskirts of the city.

(Part 2 below)

Interactive map: amkmapping.com

Elsewhere, following weeks of unsuccessful assault operations, Russian forces finally managed to break through Ukrainian positions along the railway line west of Chasiv Yar, infiltrating west for at least 3.2 km. It is currently unclear if there has any consolidation has been achieved there. It is likely that similar assault operations are taking place closer to Chasiv Yar and Mykolaivka. Attacks are also taking place northeast of Novodmytrivka towards the southern outskirts of Stinky. As such, the Ukrainian garrison in western Chasiv Yar, Mykolaivka, Chervone, and Podilske, and Stinky, is coming under increased threat of being encircled. The fall of the remaining parts of Kostyantynivka, the establishment of Russian drone operator positions in the city, and the beginning of attacks towards Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka will undoubtably make this threat even more significant.

+ ~12.20 km² in favour of Russia.

(Part 1 above)

Interactive map: amkmapping.com

It's July 2026 and the Ukrainian General Staff still has part of Pokrovsk marked as under Ukrainian control...

For reference, the city fell nearly 8 months ago.

A Russian Geran-2 drone struck a gas distribution station in Chernihiv Oblast.

A Russian Geran-2 drone struck a locomotive in the village of Oleshnya, Chernihiv Oblast, reportedly being used by the Ukrainian military to transport military-related cargo.