Russian Geran-2 drones struck a gas processing facility near the village of Koverdyna Balka, Poltava Oblast, resulting in a large fire breaking out.

Coordinates: 49.94979, 34.06467

Kostyantynivka direction, a focus on Russian casualties and Ukrainian defenses, as well as debunking common misunderstandings.

After seeing geolocations of Russians deep inside the city and rumors about an imminent loss of the city, many started to wonder about how effectively the defense of the city has been carried out and how the situation has deteriorated so much so quickly. I'll clear everything up step by step.

1. The effectiveness of the defense of the city currently satisfies expectations.

First of all, it's important to understand that the Russians have had Kostyantynivka in their sights since late summer 2025 after the factual capture of Toretsk on the south flank and the Novoolenivka breakthrough on the west flank of the city, and not just for a couple of months when the media picked up on the situation here.
The Russians spent the bulk of the time since late summer 2025 trying to consolidate the approaches to the city (which they're still trying to do): swathes of fields and treelines in clear view of Ukrainian FPV pilots in and near Kostyantynivka.
Because of these conditions, the Russians suffered a number of casualties that satisfied and continue to satisfy Ukrainian expectations.
At the moment, the hardest area for the Russians to cross is the short open area between Berestok and Illinivka, which was made into a kill zone by Ukrainian forces; only there, around 10 Russians are killed or wounded every day (not counting Berestok or Illinivka itself).

Why this area? Because Illinivka merges almost seamlessly with Kostyantynivka, just like Zvirove merged with Pokrovsk, and if Illinivka were to be consolidated, the western flank of Kostyantynivka would become significantly easier to penetrate.
Furthermore, this was a weak area for a long time, held by slightly weaker territorial defense units, and the Russians promptly exploited this.
Lastly, the Russians have their sights set on the incredibly valuable high-rise area of southwestern Kostyantynivka, perfect for finding numerous shelters (works for both sides).

2. The defense of the city was carried out relatively well.

With the exception of the usual phenomenon of holding untenable and insignificant positions to be able to say that the village is being held to the higher command, a phenomenon that causes avoidable deaths, the Ukrainians didn't commit any single catastrophic mistake and overall worked well together to hold positions even when the situation was extremely difficult.

3. The situation hasn't deteriorated quickly.

This is an illusion given by the fact that units are starting to publish geolocations of events that have been ongoing for a while already now.
People that don't have any contacts with anybody in this direction understandably don't know the context behind each clip and assume that that geolocation signifies something new.
In reality, everything is significantly more gradual.

It's also necessary to point out that Ukrainian forces still hold an overwhelming advantage at any point in time in the whole city in number of controlled positions and that those positions are in every corner of the city (even south of it); that the Russians are only trying to overlap themselves over those positions and force a retreat from them, which is currently at its early stages; and that the battle for Kostyantynivka is very likely to last into late summer.

Please don't get me wrong: the situation is far from good, I'll repeat this once more. But it can't be said that the situation is catastrophic and that the Ukrainians are currently being routed, or that the Russians will make a quick Zolotyi Kolodyaz-style breakthrough.

I agree with this. Media sensationalism makes it seem as if this has all happened at once.

The battles for urban areas of Kostyantynivka have lasted over 7 months, since mid-October 2025. The Russians have utilised a massive amount of manpower, progressively deepening their infiltrations, resulting in the defence for Ukraine slowly cracking and deteriorating. These new developments were expected.

In my opinion, the city will fall some time in July, but it's impossible to accurately predict this at this stage. Ukraine absolutely still has more manpower in the city than Russia due to a lack of stable control for Russia within the city limits, but this will likely switch in the near future.

Hezbollah rocket launches from Lebanon to Kiryat Shmona, northern Israel.

Sirens north of Kiryat Shmona

Around 15 minutes ago, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet tried to shoot down a Ukrainian F-16 over northern Sumy Oblast with 2 R-37/77 air-to-air missiles.

The Ukrainian F-16 was launching glide-bombs at the Krupets/Rylsk area of Kursk Oblast. Russian interception attempts of the Ukrainian jets were made southwest and northwest of Hlukhiv, Sumy Oblast. Both were likely unsuccessful.

The IDF announced that a Staff Sergeant of the Maglan Reconnaissance Unit of the elite 89th Commando Brigade was killed in recent fighting with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

In the same incident, another soldier was "severely injured" while two others were "lightly injured".

This incident was likely related to the recent IDF ground operation north of the Litani River near Beaufort Castle, where they were presumably ambushed by Hezbollah fighters.

This brings the confirmed IDF death toll since the beginning of their invasion of Lebanon to 26.

A comparison of mappers in the Kostyantinivka direction.

1. Hudson WM
2. AMK Mapping
3. Hague Fugitive
4. SuriyakMaps
5. Anatoliy Radov

Damage seen at the Shostka Railway Station in Sumy Oblast following yesterday's Russian Geran-2 drone strikes.

Russian Geran-2 drones struck a claimed Ukrainian FPV drone workshop in the village of Katerynivka, Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces have captured the village of Riznykivka, Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast (Bakhmut District).

Pre-war population: ~593.
Total land area: ~5.05 km².

The fighting for Riznykivka lasted approximately 5 months, 10 days.

The fact that Prigozhin can launch an attempted coup, and then still remain popular among Russian channels, is incredible.