Forwarded from Middle East Spectator โ MES
โ ๐ฎ๐ฑ/๐ฑ๐ง/๐ฎ๐ท NEW: The IDF has managed to capture Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon, which was last occupied by Israel in May 2000, more than 26 years ago.
Israel continues its advance in southern Lebanon, mostly by indiscriminate bombing and flattening of villages before advancing, and using banned โwhite phosphorousโ bombs to cover them.
Despite the Israeli push, casualties have increased in recent weeks due to Hezbollahโs usage of FPV drones, and this threat is expected to only get worse as the IDF pushes deeper into southern Lebanon.
The IDF is now converging on the first major Shia city โ the city of Nabatieh โ where it is expected that a very fierce battle will take place.
Amid all of this, Hezbollah has expanded its missile fire into Israel.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Israel continues its advance in southern Lebanon, mostly by indiscriminate bombing and flattening of villages before advancing, and using banned โwhite phosphorousโ bombs to cover them.
Despite the Israeli push, casualties have increased in recent weeks due to Hezbollahโs usage of FPV drones, and this threat is expected to only get worse as the IDF pushes deeper into southern Lebanon.
The IDF is now converging on the first major Shia city โ the city of Nabatieh โ where it is expected that a very fierce battle will take place.
Amid all of this, Hezbollah has expanded its missile fire into Israel.
@Middle_East_Spectator
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In response to U.S. airstrikes on Iranian radars and command and control centres, Iran launched a ballistic missile from Khuzestan towards Ali al Salem Airbase in Kuwait, which was seemingly intercepted by a Patriot battery.
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AMK Mapping
In response to U.S. airstrikes on Iranian radars and command and control centres, Iran launched a ballistic missile from Khuzestan towards Ali al Salem Airbase in Kuwait, which was seemingly intercepted by a Patriot battery.
CENTOM states that their strikes on Iranian radar and drone command and control facilities were in response to Iran's downing of a U.S. MQ-1 drone yesterday, which they claim was operating over international waters.
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Hezbollah continued their intensified rocket attacks on northern Israel for the second day in a row, attacking various towns and cities including Tiberias, Kiryat Shmona, Karmiel, Safed, Shlomi, Ma'a lot Tarshicha, and Kisra-Sumei, as well as various border settlements.
The IDF claimed that they intercepted at least 10 rockets, while at least another 10 other rockets impacted, 9 of which they claim were in "open areas". They did not comment on one of the rocket's impact location.
The IDF claimed that they intercepted at least 10 rockets, while at least another 10 other rockets impacted, 9 of which they claim were in "open areas". They did not comment on one of the rocket's impact location.
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AMK Mapping
Hezbollah continued their intensified rocket attacks on northern Israel for the second day in a row, attacking various towns and cities including Tiberias, Kiryat Shmona, Karmiel, Safed, Shlomi, Ma'a lot Tarshicha, and Kisra-Sumei, as well as various borderโฆ
In addition to this, Hezbollah continued attacking northern Israel with drones.
Sirens sounded in several different areas, including Kiryat Shmona, Hanita, Shomera, Shear Yeshuv, Shlomi, Rosh HaNikra, Kfar Yuva, Margaliot, and other areas.
The IDF claims that they shot down 1 drone, while another 2 impacted. They did not comment on the interception status of another 5 drones.
Sirens sounded in several different areas, including Kiryat Shmona, Hanita, Shomera, Shear Yeshuv, Shlomi, Rosh HaNikra, Kfar Yuva, Margaliot, and other areas.
The IDF claims that they shot down 1 drone, while another 2 impacted. They did not comment on the interception status of another 5 drones.
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AMK Mapping
Hezbollah continued their intensified rocket attacks on northern Israel for the second day in a row, attacking various towns and cities including Tiberias, Kiryat Shmona, Karmiel, Safed, Shlomi, Ma'a lot Tarshicha, and Kisra-Sumei, as well as various borderโฆ
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The IDF released footage showing an airstrike on a Hezbollah rocket launcher, which they claim was used to attack the city of Tiberias, northern Israel, overnight.
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Hezbollah released footage showing the launch of 107mm Fadjir -1 rockets, 122mm rockets, and 120mm HM-16 long-range mortars towards IDF positions in the town of Deir Seryan, southern Lebanon.
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Hezbollah released footage showing an FPV drone strike on an IDF vehicle in the Israeli Galilee Forest Camp military base near the town of Shtula, northern Israel, near the border with Lebanon.
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Hezbollah released footage showing an FPV drone strike on an Israeli Iron Dome launcher near the town of Biranit on the Israel-Lebanon border.
This brings the total number of visually confirmed Hezbollah strikes on Israeli Iron Dome launchers to 7.
This brings the total number of visually confirmed Hezbollah strikes on Israeli Iron Dome launchers to 7.
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Russian fibre-optic FPV drones struck two power transformers at the "Konka" 35 kV electrical substation in the village of Tavriiske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Coordinates: 47.657324, 35.702360
Coordinates: 47.657324, 35.702360
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Russian Geran-2 drones struck a gas processing facility near the village of Koverdyna Balka, Poltava Oblast, resulting in a large fire breaking out.
Coordinates: 49.94979, 34.06467
Coordinates: 49.94979, 34.06467
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Forwarded from Playfra - Maps & Analyses
Kostyantynivka direction, a focus on Russian casualties and Ukrainian defenses, as well as debunking common misunderstandings.
After seeing geolocations of Russians deep inside the city and rumors about an imminent loss of the city, many started to wonder about how effectively the defense of the city has been carried out and how the situation has deteriorated so much so quickly. I'll clear everything up step by step.
1. The effectiveness of the defense of the city currently satisfies expectations.
First of all, it's important to understand that the Russians have had Kostyantynivka in their sights since late summer 2025 after the factual capture of Toretsk on the south flank and the Novoolenivka breakthrough on the west flank of the city, and not just for a couple of months when the media picked up on the situation here.
The Russians spent the bulk of the time since late summer 2025 trying to consolidate the approaches to the city (which they're still trying to do): swathes of fields and treelines in clear view of Ukrainian FPV pilots in and near Kostyantynivka.
Because of these conditions, the Russians suffered a number of casualties that satisfied and continue to satisfy Ukrainian expectations.
At the moment, the hardest area for the Russians to cross is the short open area between Berestok and Illinivka, which was made into a kill zone by Ukrainian forces; only there, around 10 Russians are killed or wounded every day (not counting Berestok or Illinivka itself).
Why this area? Because Illinivka merges almost seamlessly with Kostyantynivka, just like Zvirove merged with Pokrovsk, and if Illinivka were to be consolidated, the western flank of Kostyantynivka would become significantly easier to penetrate.
Furthermore, this was a weak area for a long time, held by slightly weaker territorial defense units, and the Russians promptly exploited this.
Lastly, the Russians have their sights set on the incredibly valuable high-rise area of southwestern Kostyantynivka, perfect for finding numerous shelters (works for both sides).
2. The defense of the city was carried out relatively well.
With the exception of the usual phenomenon of holding untenable and insignificant positions to be able to say that the village is being held to the higher command, a phenomenon that causes avoidable deaths, the Ukrainians didn't commit any single catastrophic mistake and overall worked well together to hold positions even when the situation was extremely difficult.
3. The situation hasn't deteriorated quickly.
This is an illusion given by the fact that units are starting to publish geolocations of events that have been ongoing for a while already now.
People that don't have any contacts with anybody in this direction understandably don't know the context behind each clip and assume that that geolocation signifies something new.
In reality, everything is significantly more gradual.
It's also necessary to point out that Ukrainian forces still hold an overwhelming advantage at any point in time in the whole city in number of controlled positions and that those positions are in every corner of the city (even south of it); that the Russians are only trying to overlap themselves over those positions and force a retreat from them, which is currently at its early stages; and that the battle for Kostyantynivka is very likely to last into late summer.
Please don't get me wrong: the situation is far from good, I'll repeat this once more. But it can't be said that the situation is catastrophic and that the Ukrainians are currently being routed, or that the Russians will make a quick Zolotyi Kolodyaz-style breakthrough.
After seeing geolocations of Russians deep inside the city and rumors about an imminent loss of the city, many started to wonder about how effectively the defense of the city has been carried out and how the situation has deteriorated so much so quickly. I'll clear everything up step by step.
1. The effectiveness of the defense of the city currently satisfies expectations.
First of all, it's important to understand that the Russians have had Kostyantynivka in their sights since late summer 2025 after the factual capture of Toretsk on the south flank and the Novoolenivka breakthrough on the west flank of the city, and not just for a couple of months when the media picked up on the situation here.
The Russians spent the bulk of the time since late summer 2025 trying to consolidate the approaches to the city (which they're still trying to do): swathes of fields and treelines in clear view of Ukrainian FPV pilots in and near Kostyantynivka.
Because of these conditions, the Russians suffered a number of casualties that satisfied and continue to satisfy Ukrainian expectations.
At the moment, the hardest area for the Russians to cross is the short open area between Berestok and Illinivka, which was made into a kill zone by Ukrainian forces; only there, around 10 Russians are killed or wounded every day (not counting Berestok or Illinivka itself).
Why this area? Because Illinivka merges almost seamlessly with Kostyantynivka, just like Zvirove merged with Pokrovsk, and if Illinivka were to be consolidated, the western flank of Kostyantynivka would become significantly easier to penetrate.
Furthermore, this was a weak area for a long time, held by slightly weaker territorial defense units, and the Russians promptly exploited this.
Lastly, the Russians have their sights set on the incredibly valuable high-rise area of southwestern Kostyantynivka, perfect for finding numerous shelters (works for both sides).
2. The defense of the city was carried out relatively well.
With the exception of the usual phenomenon of holding untenable and insignificant positions to be able to say that the village is being held to the higher command, a phenomenon that causes avoidable deaths, the Ukrainians didn't commit any single catastrophic mistake and overall worked well together to hold positions even when the situation was extremely difficult.
3. The situation hasn't deteriorated quickly.
This is an illusion given by the fact that units are starting to publish geolocations of events that have been ongoing for a while already now.
People that don't have any contacts with anybody in this direction understandably don't know the context behind each clip and assume that that geolocation signifies something new.
In reality, everything is significantly more gradual.
It's also necessary to point out that Ukrainian forces still hold an overwhelming advantage at any point in time in the whole city in number of controlled positions and that those positions are in every corner of the city (even south of it); that the Russians are only trying to overlap themselves over those positions and force a retreat from them, which is currently at its early stages; and that the battle for Kostyantynivka is very likely to last into late summer.
Please don't get me wrong: the situation is far from good, I'll repeat this once more. But it can't be said that the situation is catastrophic and that the Ukrainians are currently being routed, or that the Russians will make a quick Zolotyi Kolodyaz-style breakthrough.
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