Iskander-M threat from Bryansk.

High threat to Kyiv.

Probably S-300 air defence launches, targeting Ukrainian drones.

Missile in Chernihiv Oblast

Disappeared near Snovsk, Chernihiv Oblast. This was indeed an Iskander-M ballistic missile.

Never mind, it was an S-300. It was detected in Bryansk Oblast and disappeared between Horodnya and Snovsk, Chernihiv Oblast. Targeting Ukrainian drones as they enter Russian airspace.

Missile of an unidentified type to Hlukhiv, Sumy Oblast.

Cruise missile. Might be Iskander-K

Nevermind. Disappeared.

One of the 3 Tu-95MS which was redeploying to Olenya Airbase returned back to Engels-2 Airbase. I think that's what the activity on 4331 kHz was related to.

All in all, these movements are very confusing and unusual, so it is not clear if anything will happen tonight. If anything changes, I will update.

In a move which has caused a diplomatic nightmare between Ukraine and Poland.

Zelensky has renamed a unit in honour of the 'Heroes of the UPA'.

The UPA was a fascist Ultra nationalist group who was involved in the mass ethnic cleansing of Poles, Jews.

The UPA collaborated with the Nazis and other groups in pursuit of ethnic nationalist goals.

Poland's president has called for a discussion to strip Zelensky of the country's highest honour.

Early warning alerts for parts of northern Israel due to Hezbollah rocket launches.

The rockets were most likely intercepted over southern Lebanon.

Regarding the upcoming combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

This new Russian Air Force Commander is really changing things up... I think this is likely related to a psychological campaign and confusing Ukrainian air defence.

4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are stationed at Olenya Airbase, all of which are most likely equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They are accompanied by 2 IL-78M aerial refuelers, which could suggest that they intend to fly back to Ukrainka Airbase in the near future.

Due to these bombers using new frequencies for the small attack two days ago, they may carry out launches of Kh-101 cruise missiles at unexpected times, possibly during redeployments. The increase in daylight hours has increased the flexibility for these launches to occur. This would help catch Ukrainian air defence and aviation off guard, increasing the overall impact rate.

The other 2 equipped Tu-95MS are at Engels-2 Airbase and Dyagilevo Airbase. The 2 equipped Tu-160M strategic bombers remain at Ukrainka Airbase.

The IDF announced that a Staff Sergeant from the 846th Givati Reconnaissance Battalion of the "Givati" Infantry Brigade was killed in recent fighting in southern Lebanon.,

During the same incident, four additional IDF soldiers were "lightly injured".

This brings the confirmed IDF death toll since the beginning of their invasion of Lebanon to 25.

Beautiful ratio. There are a lot of seething Americans in the comments.

Letting AI write community notes for Twitter posts is such a terrible idea, and here’s a perfect example of it:

Ai has this weird obsession with citing the ISW as the most reliable source for 99% of their information on Ukraine, just because they have that “citable” status from being a professional think tank. It’s basically on the same level as its addiction to using m-dashes in every single sentence. In reality, the ISW is a neocon American propaganda outlet. In fact, them being unreliable is one of the few things most people who closely follow this war agree on - whether you are pro-Russian or Pro-Ukraine.

In this case, Ethan Levins, who is a known grifter and larper who knows nothing about the Ukraine war, saw a couple of geolocations and hallucinated a frontline collapse on a section of the frontline he only just discovered existed. But citing ISW as a fact is so incredibly misleading. They are the ONLY source that claims Russia had a net loss in May. Even Deepstate of all maps shows a net Russian gain.