The first large launches of Geran-2/Gerbera drones are reported from several locations.

Unconfirmed as of now.

Apparently the communications are between Engels-2 Airbase and command and control in Moscow. Might explain the lack of reporting. But the timing lines up. We can probably expect 2 Tu-160M strategic bombers to depart from Ukrainka Airbase in the far east and begin flying west to their launch lines any time in the next 30 minutes.

Possible Tu-160M strategic bomber departures from Ukrainka Airbase, far east.

There have only been around a dozen drones launched across a couple of areas. No mass launches yet.

Early warning alerts for Kiryat Shmona, northern Israel, due to Hezbollah rocket launches.

Sirens in northern Israel

Iron dome launches

2 interceptions over northern Israel.

Iskander-M threat from Bryansk.

High threat to Kyiv.

Probably S-300 air defence launches, targeting Ukrainian drones.

Missile in Chernihiv Oblast

Disappeared near Snovsk, Chernihiv Oblast. This was indeed an Iskander-M ballistic missile.

Never mind, it was an S-300. It was detected in Bryansk Oblast and disappeared between Horodnya and Snovsk, Chernihiv Oblast. Targeting Ukrainian drones as they enter Russian airspace.

Missile of an unidentified type to Hlukhiv, Sumy Oblast.

Cruise missile. Might be Iskander-K

Nevermind. Disappeared.

One of the 3 Tu-95MS which was redeploying to Olenya Airbase returned back to Engels-2 Airbase. I think that's what the activity on 4331 kHz was related to.

All in all, these movements are very confusing and unusual, so it is not clear if anything will happen tonight. If anything changes, I will update.

In a move which has caused a diplomatic nightmare between Ukraine and Poland.

Zelensky has renamed a unit in honour of the 'Heroes of the UPA'.

The UPA was a fascist Ultra nationalist group who was involved in the mass ethnic cleansing of Poles, Jews.

The UPA collaborated with the Nazis and other groups in pursuit of ethnic nationalist goals.

Poland's president has called for a discussion to strip Zelensky of the country's highest honour.

Early warning alerts for parts of northern Israel due to Hezbollah rocket launches.

The rockets were most likely intercepted over southern Lebanon.

Regarding the upcoming combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

This new Russian Air Force Commander is really changing things up... I think this is likely related to a psychological campaign and confusing Ukrainian air defence.

4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are stationed at Olenya Airbase, all of which are most likely equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They are accompanied by 2 IL-78M aerial refuelers, which could suggest that they intend to fly back to Ukrainka Airbase in the near future.

Due to these bombers using new frequencies for the small attack two days ago, they may carry out launches of Kh-101 cruise missiles at unexpected times, possibly during redeployments. The increase in daylight hours has increased the flexibility for these launches to occur. This would help catch Ukrainian air defence and aviation off guard, increasing the overall impact rate.

The other 2 equipped Tu-95MS are at Engels-2 Airbase and Dyagilevo Airbase. The 2 equipped Tu-160M strategic bombers remain at Ukrainka Airbase.