Footage of the interceptions over Karmiel

Video of the 4 rockets being intercepted over Karmiel.

Possible rocket impacts in Karmiel.

Unconfirmed.

Hezbollah drone alerts in Shomera, northern Israel.

Edit: false identification

Current situation with Russian strategic bombers:

5 Tu-95MS are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Olenya Airbase. They will likely take off in the next 3 hours.

2 Tu-160Ms are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase. They will likely take off within the next 2 hours.

Assuming the attack does occur tonight, I will provide live coverage of the events.

The IDF claims that "several rockets" were intercepted. They did not comment on any potential impacts.

Expecting strikes in Beirut in the next 24-48 hours.

Situation on the Omelnyk and Orikhiv directions, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Russian forces intensified their assault operations, making significant progress over the last two weeks, while Ukrainian forces continued limited counterattacks.

In the southwest, Ukrainian forces advanced in Mala Tokmachka, clearing most of the rest of the eastern part of the village and pushing the Russians back to the eastern outskirts.

To the east, Russian forces continued advancing west, parallel with the 2022-era Ukrainian defensive line. They were able to capture a number of treeline positions north of Luhivske, and are infiltrating further west towards the strongpoints north of Bilohirya. Additionally, they were able to capture large swaths of the fields south of Charivne, before completing the capture of the village. From there, they are carrying out deep infiltrations past the strongpoints west of Charivne and through the treelines to the southwest, under heavy MLRS, artillery, and KAB cover.

To the northeast, Russian forces advanced in the treelines northeast of Charivne and are trying to capture the strongpoints north of the village. At the same time, other Russian assault groups were able to enter the southwestern part of Huliapilske following the capture of positions along the gulley to the south.

To the east, Russian assault operations on Huliaipilske decreased in intensity, as they focused on clearing the remaining Ukrainian positions in the fields southeast of the village. Assault operations continued along the highway, and the remaining part of the salient southwest of Zaliznychne was cleared. Additionallly, the Russians improved their positions in the treelines west of Zalizhnychne, and began storming the Ukrainian strongpoints in the forest plantations northeast of Huliaipilske, while simultaneous infiltrations continued towards the northern outskirts of Huliaipilske from Hirke.

To the north, Russian forces secured the treelines south of Verkhnya Tersa, utilising them for their recent renewed storming operations in the village itself. As a result of heavy battles, they were able to capture the western and central parts of the settlement, and are now trying to infiltrate further west through the treelines in the direction of Kopani. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces recaptured some positions along the railway windbreaks northwest of Krynychne and are engaged in fighting for the western outskirts of Tsvitkove, which the Russians are trying to recapture. Russian forces were also able to push the Ukrainian infiltrators out of the northwestern-most streets of Hulyaipole, forcing any survivors to retreat back to Zalizhnychne.

Further north, Russian forces advanced north of Tsvitkove, establishing control over a large section of the railway line and treelines to the east, before storming the village of Vozdvyzhivka. They were able to entrench in the easternmost part of the settlement and are infiltrating through to its western outskirts. Heavy battles also continue in its northern streets. At the same time, large-scale assault operations are underway through the treelines south of the village, with Russian infiltrators approaching the eastern outskirts of Rivne. Clashes also continue in the remaining sections of the railway line east of Vozdvyzhivka. Meanwhile, Russian forces were able to clear part of the Ukrainian pocket east of Varvarivka and are engaged in battles with Ukrainian forces for the central part of Dobropillya.

+ ~44.32 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~2.60 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map: amkmapping.com

Zelensky: "Information from intelligence about the possibility of a massive strike remains relevant. We know that our partners have been talking to the Russians about this".

He is referring to tonight.

If the combined missile attack does take place tonight, which I think it will, we should see activity on Russian strategic frequencies in the next 2 hours.

Situation on the Prosyana direction, Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

Ukrainian forces have launched a coordinated series of counterattacks near the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border since mid-April, amid continued low-intensity Russian assault operations.

In the north, Ukrainian forces recaptured the forests west of Ivanivka, securing a section of the northern bank of the Vovcha River. Simultaneously, they advanced south of the Vovcha River, recapturing additional treeline positions.

To the south, Ukrainian forces cleared the eastern part of Andriivka-Klevtsove, and recaptured a number of treeline positions to the east of the village. From there, they began carrying out large-scale infiltrations into the villages of Zelenyi Hai, Tolstoi, and Novokhatske, contesting all three of them. Furthermore, they advanced southeast along the highway, recapturing positions there, and entering the northern part of Piddubne. Heavy fighting is ongoing for the central part of the village.

Further south, the Ukrainians recaptured positions in several different treelines southeast of Andriivka-Klevstove. Meanwhile, Russian forces pushed Ukrainian infiltrators out of Voskresenka, re-establishing full control over the village, and recaptured a number of treeline positions to the north. They also continued their infiltrations north of Oleksandrohrad towards the eastern bank of the Vovcha River. Ukrainian forces resumed their counterattacks in Novoselivka and Sichneve, increasing the grey-zone in the latter.

+ ~22.80 km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~5.48 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map: amkmapping.com

Situation on the Dobropillya direction, Donetsk Oblast:

Ukrainian forces continued their counterattacks in the Hryshyne, amid continued Russian assault operations north of Pokrovsk.

In the west, Ukrainian forces recaptured part of the railway windbreaks west of Hryshyne following earlier Russian advances. They also recaptured some treeline positions to the south which were previously in the grey-zone.

To the northeast, Russian forces continued their assault operations northwest and north of Hryshyne, where they are trying to expand their zone of control around the village. Clashes continued in the western part of Rodynske and for the mine west of the city, however, increased Russian FPV drone usage is complicating the Ukrainian position here.

+ ~2.24 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map: amkmapping.com

Situation on the Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast:

Russian forces continue their assault operations and deep infiltrations in and around Kostyantynivka as the situation for Ukraine continues to deteriorate.

In the west, Russian forces intensified their assault operations in the Stepanivka area, where they are engaged in battles for the northern part of the village and the eastern approaches to Dovha Balka.

To the east, the Russians improved their positions north of Berestok, consolidating in a number of treeline positions along the highway. From there, they are infiltrating in large numbers into the southern private sector and the southern industrial zone, while heavy bombardment targets Ukrainian positions in the southwestern suburbs. Additionally, Russian infiltrators are moving from Illinivka, entering the southwestern high-rise blocks and western private sector, before moving east through the historical city centre, across the Kryvyi Torets River, and into the chemical plant, as well as north into the northwestern private sector of the city.

To the east, Russian forces intensified their assault operations in the eastern and southeastern parts of Kostyantynivka and are trying to recapture the area of the railway station. Additionally, they continued their infiltrations west/southwest through the northern suburbs of the city, approaching the city centre, while other forces move through Novodmytrivka into neighbouring Molocharka. These deep infiltrations are becoming easier after Ukraine was forced to withdraw their remaining drone operators from Kostyantynivka.

To the northeast, the Russians continued their assault operations in the western and southwestern districts of Chasiv Yar, where they are still trying to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the city. New intense assault operations following heavy MLRS and artillery preparation are now ongoing in the forests southwest of Chasiv Yar, as well as on the railway line west of the city in the direction of Chervone, Podilske, Mykolaivka, and Stinky, with the apparent goal of reaching Novodmytrivka to cut off the Ukrainian garrison in western Chasiv Yar. Fighting also continues on the eastern approaches to Virolyubivka.

+ ~0.91 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map: amkmapping.com

Situation on the Rai-Oleksandrivka direction, Donetsk Oblast:

Russian forces continue their offensive operations in the direction of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk, and have made additional advances in four different areas.

In the southwest, Russian forces continued their assault operations in Markove and improved their positions in the central part of the village following prolonged fighting.

To the north, the Russians continued clearing the pocket in the Minkivka area, recapturing positions in the forest there, as well as some parts of southern Minkivka. Additionally, they were able to secure a number of positions along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi-Donets Canal, and are using these positions to intensify their infiltrations across the canal into the village of Tykhonivka.

Further north, Russian forces completed the capture of the village of Dibrova, and continued their infiltrations across the canal into the eastern part of Malynivka and the surrounding areas. Fighting also continues for the forests north of Fedorivka Druha and the central part of Nykyforivka.

+ ~1.37 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map: amkmapping.com

The first communications between Engels-2 Airbase and command and control in Moscow have been recorded. Currently this is just a command and control frequency, not a combat one, but it signals what is to come tonight.

Well, it turns out this is a combat frequency: 4331 kHz. This is the frequency they used for the last two attacks.

Ukrainian channels are all sleeping apparently, as they aren't reporting the "threat of a combat mission for tonight" lmao.

The first large launches of Geran-2/Gerbera drones are reported from several locations.

Unconfirmed as of now.

Apparently the communications are between Engels-2 Airbase and command and control in Moscow. Might explain the lack of reporting. But the timing lines up. We can probably expect 2 Tu-160M strategic bombers to depart from Ukrainka Airbase in the far east and begin flying west to their launch lines any time in the next 30 minutes.

Possible Tu-160M strategic bomber departures from Ukrainka Airbase, far east.