❗️Russia likely plans to launch a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight, between 11pm and 6am.

6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at OIenya and Engels-2 Airbases. The ones at Engels-2 will likely fly back to Olenya this afternoon ahead of the attack.

2 Tu-160M strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase in the far east.

The Tu-160s would likely take off at around 9:30pm tonight (around 10 hours from now), while the Tu-95MS would likely take off at around 11:30pm (around 12 hours from now).

In addition to this, the following could be used:

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Voronezh, Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov Oblasts, as well as Crimea).
- Iskander-K cruise missiles (from Kursk and Rostov Oblasts).
- Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles (from Kursk Oblast).
- Kh-22/32 cruise missiles from Tu-22m3 strategic bombers (from launch lines over Bryansk Oblast)
- Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles from MiG-31K fighters at Savasleika Airbase.
- Kalibr cruise missiles from one frigate and one corvette at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.

The highest threat is to Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Rivne Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Lviv Oblast, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.

In my opinion, the main target of this attack will be Ukraine's military-industrial complex, and possibly various airbase in Kyiv Oblast and western Ukraine. I personally doubt that major decision-making centres will be targeted, but we will see.

A short time ago, a Russian Kh-59/69 cruise missile launched by a Su-34/35 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast impacted Kanatove Airbase in Kirovohrad Oblast.

According to unconfirmed information, Ukraine has received additional PAC-3 interceptors and missiles for IRIS-T systems, ahead of the upcoming combined Russian missile and drone attack.

As I mentioned before, the attack will likely take place tonight, so we will see if this is true or not based on the interception rate and patterns.

The main part of the missile attack tonight may have been postponed.

Earlier, 8 Iskander-K cruise missiles and 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles attacked Kyiv Oblast (more info on that later). There is no activity on Russian strategic bomber frequencies and very few drones detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Hezbollah released footage showing an FPV drone strike on an Israeli Humvee vehicle near the town of Manara, northern Israel.

Hezbollah attacked the city of Kiryat Shmona and areas west of Safed, northern Israel, with rockets.

Hezbollah released footage showing the launch of "Paveh" long-range cruise missiles towards IDF positions in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah released footage showing an FPV drone strike on an Israeli Namer armoured personnel carrier in the town of Taybeh, southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah released footage showing FPV drone strikes on two Israeli Merkava tanks in the town of Rchaf, southern Lebanon. It is unclear if the second drone hit its target.

Notably, a number of incomplete anti-drone nets are visible in the town. Hezbollah drones were able to maneuver through them to strike their targets.

My guess is that those 3 Ukrainian An-72 cargo plane flights from western Ukraine to NATO that I reported on were related to the delivery of PAC-3 interceptors and IRIS-T interceptors.

Regarding possible targets for the upcoming combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine:

Russia has been carrying out extensive reconnaissance of the following locations, using Gerbera drones and balloons:

- Kyiv City, Bila Tserkva, areas south and north of Kyiv
- Southern Zhytomyr Oblast.
- Rivne Oblast, especially Dubno.
- Lviv Oblast, especially Lviv City
- Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, especially Pavlohrad and Dnipro.

More specific information about the times of launches will be provided during the attack, but in general, the highest threat is in place for 11pm to 6am tonight.

In my opinion, the primary target will be the military-industrial complex and railway infrastructure. There is also a risk that airbases in Kyiv Oblast and Western Ukraine are hit. I personally doubt that Russia will attack major decision-making centres like they threatened, but we will see.

It turns out that the cruise missiles launched overnight were actually 6 Kh-101 cruise missiles from a Tu-95MS strategic bomber over Vologda Oblast, not Iskander-K cruise missiles. The aircraft was communicating with command and control in Moscow with a different (unknown) frequency, meaning it was not detected as a combat missions.

These missiles attacked the Obukhiv area of Kyiv Oblast. 4-5 of them were shot down during the flight time, which lasted around an hour.

This Tu-95MS, along with the remaining two out of 6 which are expected to take part in the upcoming attack, are currently redeploying from Olenya Airbase to Engels-2 Airbase to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They will likely then return to Olenya Airbase this afternoon.

Ukrainian drones struck two Russian Tu-142 maritime reconnaissance and anti-submarine aircraft at Taganrog-Central Airbase, and an Iskander-M ballistic missile launcher near Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

As some of you may have noticed, I am a bit behind on map updates, especially for the northern half of Ukraine. I have been trying my best to keep my interactive map (amkmapping.com) up to date, but even this has fallen behind in some places.

It takes a lot more time nowadays to verify map changes due to the nature of the war being dominated by small infantry infiltration tactics with a lack of consolidation, which only exacerbates this issue of delayed updates for me.

I've just been very busy these past two weeks, but hopefully by Monday/Tuesday I will be ready to resume reporting at my old rates, posting maps more regularly to keep up to date with what is happening. I apologise for the delays recently, I'll do my best to increase my rate of reporting from next week onwards.

Ukrainian drones struck a sanctioned Russian oil tanker stationed at Taganrog Oil Depot (Rostov Oblast), the Taganrog Oil Depot itself, and an oil depot in Feodosia (Crimea).

Hezbollah rocket launches to northern Israel

Additional clarification on the small missile attack last night:

2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers launched 8 Kh-101 cruise missiles, not 1.

3-4 of these missiles impacted the Obukhiv/Ukrainka area of Kyiv Oblast.

Ukrzaliznytsia reports that Russian drones struck railway infrastructure and trains in Zaporizhzhia City, damaging a locomotive and a diesel locomotive, and killing a train driver.