Apparently this video is AI. It was posted by Al Arabiya, so I wouldn't be surprised.

A Russian Zala reconnaissance drone currently inspecting the damage from the two Russian Kh-59/69 cruise missiles strikes on the factory in Kryvyi Rih.

Hezbollah released footage showing the launch of drones and rockets towards Israeli positions in the towns of Al-Bayada and Aadaysit Marjaayoun, southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah released footage showing an FPV drone strike on an Israeli Namer Armoured Personnel Carrier in the city of Bint Jbeil, southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah drone alerts in Metulla, northern Israel.

Hamas has officially announced that the commander of the Al-Qassam Brigades, Izz al-Din al Haddad was killed, alongside his his wife, daughter, and multiple other civilians, in last night's Israeli targeted assassination strike.

Hamas emphasised that this was another violation of the ceasefire agreement.

Over the last few months since the start of this year, there has been alot of attrition happening that isn't necessarily having immediate effect because of Ukrainian adaptations with the intent of holding more of the front with the same amount of men/the same amount of front with less men.

Keep in mind the statistics. Russia launches 10x the glide bombs as Ukraine, suffers 10-15x less artillery losses, and outproduces Ukraine in FPV drones (despite Ukrainian drones being arguably of better quality). All 3 pillars of attrition, Russia holds decisive advantage in.

Also keep in mind strategic strikes are only one aspect of the war and do not directly affect the frontline situation. Russia repairs refineries and replaces AD systems and radars, and people seem to have short memories like Russia hasn't launched huge combined missile and drone strikes on Ukraine once a week for the past 3 years.

There are some rumours of a Russian summer offensive. Like all previous years, i think all advances will continue to be a result of attrition, and there won't be any specific offensive with territorial goals.

I suspect that, provided the AFU continues adapting further as they get closer and closer to running out of manpower, advances could actually stay pretty constant or even slow as we approach the point of collapse. If hypothetically, the AFU does nothing, advances will exponentially increase during summer and into autumn and winter before the collapse happens (still at the same point).

(Side note: it is important to point out that Russian forces also suffer attrition, but the trend can be described as merely losing more slowly rather than winning perse.)

The difference is, if the AFU does nothing and lets attrition take its natural course, there will be a clear and obvious buildup toward the collapse of the front. Ukraine's continued drone warfare adaptations will result in continual blunting and suppression of the attrition that is happening. In a way, the situation for Ukraine could look entirely stable until its not. Almost like a state of metastability before a false vacuum collapse, if you use a quantum physics analogy.

Keep in mind, again, that drones still require drone operators, and drones cannot hold the front completely alone.

The collapse will regardless, be sudden, surreal and very hard to comprehend for many. For such a brutal grinding war of attrition to give way to large maneuvers and megacities falling one after another will take some alot of time to wrap their head around. Of course, by this time, NAFO and other horrible people profiting off the war with Crimea is about to be liberated! clickbait will have seen what's coming and be long gone.

As for a timeframe, myself, AMK, WillyOAM and Kalibrated have voiced our predictions many times. I'm just going to let it play out how it plays out.

Test post

The IDF announced that a platoon commander of the 12th Battalion of the elite 1st "Golani" Infantry Brigade was killed by a Hezbollah strike on southern Lebanon.

This brings the total confirmed IDF death toll since the beginning of their invasion of Lebanon to 20.

Hezbollah released footage showing an FPV drone strike on an IDF excavator near the town of Deir Seryan, Southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah released footage showing an FPV drone strike on an Israeli M113 armoured personnel carrier in the city of Bint Jbeil, southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah released footage showing an FPV drone strike on an Israeli HUMVEE vehicle stationed inside a shelter near the town of Naqoura, southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah drone alerts in Misgav Am, northeastern Israel.

In the Komyshuvakha direction, Ukrainian forces intensified their localised counteroffensive operations, making significant progress over the last two weeks.

In the west, following the withdrawal from Russian airborne assault elements to the rear due to high losses, Ukrainian forces managed to clear the grey-zone in Prymorske and broke through to the southern dachas, clearing most of the rest of the village. At the same time, elite GUR forces cleared pockets of Russian resistance east of the settlement, and advanced down the highway to the southeastern dachas where they entrenched on the northern bank of the Sukhyy River, thereby cutting the Russian bridgehead in two.

To the east, Ukrainian special forces continued their clearing operations in Stepnohirsk after repelling Russian attacks towards the town centre. They managed to recapture the eastern streets and fields to the east and are now engaged in fighting for the remaining western streets. Additionally, newly brought in reinforcements managed to establish control over the solar farm and adjacent dachas.

Further east, the Ukrainians cleared the remaining part of the salient following a Russian withdrawal, and began advancing southwest towards Kamyanske. As a result of these attacks, they were able to advance along the tactical heights, recapturing treeline positions northeast of the village along the northern bank of the Kalnachak River. Simultaneously, other assault groups advanced south of the Kalnachak River, recapturing treeline positions there and infiltrating to the eastern outskirts of Kamyanske.

To the southeast, Russian forces resumed assault operations north of Stepove, where they recaptured treeline positions north of the village up to the gulley. On the other hand, Ukrainian forces recaptured positions northeast of Stepove and are attempting to reach the highway.

In the east, Ukrainian forces cleared most of the treeline positions north of Mali Shcherbaky and are attempting to advance northwest of Shcherbaky. On the other hand, Russian forces restarted attacks in Shcherbaky, recapturing the central part of the village and infiltrating up the treelines north of the settlement.

+ ~65.07 km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~1.37 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: amkmapping.com

From now on, you can access my interactive Ukraine map through the URL amkmapping.com. It will automatically redirect you there.

In the Orikhiv and Omelnyk directions, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have advanced, amid intensified Russian offensive operations.

In the southwest, Russian forces entrenched along a section of the highway south of Novodanylivka, while other forces attempt to infiltrate the southern outskirts of Novodanylivka and Novoandriivka.

To the east, Ukrainian forces cleared the ruins of the Mala Tokmachka prison and pushed Russian forces back to the eastern outskirts of the village. They also recaptured positions in the western part of Bilohirya and are attempting to advance towards the central streets of the settlement.

To the northeast, Russian forces began attacking northwest of Bahate, advancing parallel (west) with the 2022-era Ukrainian defensive line. As a result, they were able to capture new treeline positions on the tactical heights northeast of Luhivske, and are now infiltrating further west.

To the north, the Russians broke through Ukrainian defences east of Charivne, capturing numerous treelines on the tactical heights there and, following intensive artillery, MLRS and KAB strikes, entrenched in the southern part of the village. clearing operations are ongoing in the northwestern houses, while heavy fighting has begun for the strongpoints on the western outskirts of the settlement.

Further north, Russian forces advanced northwest from Myrne, capturing new treeline positions on either side of the gulley there, and infiltrated the southwestern part of Huliaipilske. At the same time, other assault groups improved their positions along the highway and infiltrated the eastern and southern parts of the village.

To the northeast, Russian forces intensified their infiltrations from Hirke towards the northern outskirts of Huliaipilske, where a large grey-zone remains. Ukrainian forces cleared the southern part of Zaliznychne from earlier Russia infiltrations and recaptured positions in the treelines east of the town, with some infiltrators even entering the northwestern streets of Hulyaipole itself. Meanwhile, Russian forces deepened their infiltrations in Verkhnya Tersa following heavy artillery and MLRS preparation, reaching the central part of the village.

+ ~12.96 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~8.14 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map link: amkmapping.com