Hezbollah drone alerts in northeastern Israel

Hezbollah rocket alerts in northern Israel.

Russia has launched 150-200 Geran-2/Gerbera drones at Ukraine in recent hours. At least 120 are currently detected in Ukrainian airspace, flying in large groups towards the western regions of Ukraine.

In my opinion, most of these drones are Gerbera decoy drones aimed at exhausting Ukrainian air defence ahead of the next large-scale missile attack that will likely occur tonight and tomorrow morning.

The Ukrainian GUR has confirmed my earlier reports that Russia has launched a prolonged combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

The first wave of attacks has consisted of more than 300 Gerbera decoy drones and Geran-2 strike drones, targeting the western regions of Ukraine, aimed at exhausting Ukrainian air defence ahead of the missiles. This wave is still ongoing, and appears to mostly consist of decoy drones.

Tonight/tomorrow morning, it is expected that Russia will launch missiles, including Kh-101s, Iskander-Ms, and Kalibrs, as well as additional Geran-2 drones.

So far, during the first wave of attacks, Russian Geran-2 drones have struck targets in the following locations, mainly in Western Ukraine:

- Lutsk, Volyn Oblast
- Dubno, Rivne Oblast
- Rivne City
- Ivano-Frankivsk City
- Kolomyya, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast
- Khmelnytskyi City
- Zdolbuniv, Rivne Oblast
- Yampil, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Chernivtsi City
- Smila, Cherkasy Oblast
- Cherkasy City
- Kyiv City
- Malyn, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Mykolaiv City
- Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast
- Chernyakhiv, Zhytomyr Oblast

The drones have mainly been targeting SBU buildings, electrical substations, and oil infrastructure.

Interestingly, Ukrainian F-16s and Mirage-2000s have not been used to shoot down drones from this attack. This has resulted in a higher than usual impact rate for the Gerans.

Dozens of new drones continue to enter Chernihiv Oblast, flying to western Ukraine.

I have to get some sleep now, but I will be back in the morning (my time) to cover the upcoming Russian missile attack.

As expected, Russia’s combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine will take place tonight.

4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers have taken off from Olenya Airbase, and are flying south to their launch lines. 4 Tu-160M strategic bombers are airborne from Ukrainka Airbase, flying west to their launch lines. Launches of Kh-101 cruise missiles are expected in the next 4 hours.

There's a lot of mixed information circulating regarding strategic bombers thanks to Russia's 4330 CW kHz combat frequency being active for the last 2 hours.

As for the Black Sea Fleet, still no info. It is known that 2 surface-carriers are equipped with up to 16 Kalibr cruise missiles, but they have not left Novorossiysk Naval Base yet, and no signs of clearing the port for departures have been recorded.

The next wave of large groups of Geran-2, Geran-3, and Gerbera drones have entered Ukrainian airspace. There are at least 50 of them detected right now, with more expected to arrive.

For the next 4 hours, there is a high threat of Iskander-M ballistic missile launches, especially from Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, and Voronezh Oblast, whose launch sites recently received new batches of missiles.

Possible Iskander-M launch from Kursk Oblast.

An explosion was heard in Velykyi Bobryk, Sumy Oblast. Likely not related to any Iskanders in my opinion.