There is also one Tu-95MS from Olenya Airbase flying in the area of Engels-2 Airbase right now. It's unclear what it is doing or where it is flying, and it hasn't carried out any launch maneuvers.

If the launch maneuvers from the 2-3 Tu-160s were real and not simulated with electronic warfare, then we can expect Kh-101 cruise missiles to enter Ukrainian airspace in the next 70 minutes.

Interestingly, these launch maneuvers apparently took place from Volgograd District of Volgograd Oblast, rather than the usual Kalachyovksy District. These are likely the new launch lines for Tu-160s arriving from the far east.

A second Tu-95MS is flying in the area of Engels-2 Airbase right now. It's unclear if these are from Olenya Airbase, or if they departed from Engels-2 Airbase earlier today.

These 2 Tu-95MS are flying south to the Caspian Sea.

If they carry out launch maneuvers from the launch lines in Kalachyovksy District, Volgograd Oblast, it will occur in around 20-30 minutes.

If they carry out launch maneuvers from the the launch lines in the northern Caspian Sea, it will occur in around 50-60 minutes.

Iran claims that IRGC air defences shot down a U.S. F-35 fighter jet over central Iran.

This is currently unconfirmed.

The first Kh-101 cruise missiles from 2-3 Tu-160M strategic bombers are expected to enter Ukrainian airspace via Sumy Oblast in the next 45 minutes, assuming the launches weren't simulated with electronic warfare.

Well, the marking on the debris lines up with an F-35A of the 493rd Fighter Squadron, which is based at RAF Lakenheath which the IRGC claims was the home base of the aircraft supposedly shot down.

However the paint doesn't look like what I'd expect from an F-35. So it's still unconfirmed as of now. Hopefully someone more knowledgeable than me about this kind of stuff will do a deeper analysis.

It's also possible that this is an F-15E rather than an F-35, as the red colouring on this F-15 from this same 493rd Fighter Squadron lines up well. But it's difficult to determine the size of the debris in comparison to the rocky background.

Earlier the IRGC published footage showing the interception of what appears to be a U.S. F-15 fighter jet, although they claimed this was a separate incident over Qeshm Island in southern Iran, whereas the other fighter jet was reportedly shot down over central Iran.

It's possible that these are two separate incidents, however the fact that the second claim of an F-35 being shot down actually shows an F-15E could suggest that these are the same aircraft.

New groups of Geran-2 drones have entered Ukrainian airspace ahead of the missiles. More than 70 Geran-2/Gerbera drones are currently detected.

Around 30 minutes ago, an Iranian Shahed-131/136 drone impacted a target in Kuwait City.

The strike likely targeted something in this area.

1 Tu-95MS from Engels-2 Airbase is also confirmed to be airborne. It took off several hours ago and is apparently flying in a group with the other 4 aircraft towards Orenburg Oblast (unconfirmed).

Unidentified missile in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

probably mixed up with MLRS on the frontline

The first launches carried out by 2-3 Tu-160M strategic bombers were simulated with electronic warfare. Currently 2-3 Tu-95MS and 3 Tu-95MS are flying to Orenburg Oblast. They may have carried out launch maneuvers that went undetected.

At least 2 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers are airborne from Olenya Airbase

3 Tu-95MS and 2-3 Tu-160s strategic bombers carried out launch maneuvers from Samara Oblast

The new drones entering Ukrainian airspace are all flying to Kyiv.

The missiles will probably also follow.

The first Kh-101 cruise missiles will enter Ukrainian airspace via Sumy Oblast any time in the next 45 minutes.

It is expected that there will be between 20 and 35 Kh-101s, which will be accompanied by Iskander-K and/or Kh-59/69 cruise missiles.

Unidentified missile in Kharkiv Oblast

Edit: MLRS on the frontline