Interceptor activity seen over Tel Aviv

US airstrikes targeted Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) positions in the Nineveh Governorate of northern Iraq.

Heres what i predict for the future winding back of the Ukrainian winter counteroffensive and resumption of the offensive on Orekhov.

Firstly, a potential prerequisite for the development of the eastern flank of Orekhov could be the capture of Novopavlovka and Mezhova (Dnepropetrovsk oblast).

It is likely Russia will soon, possibly from May-June, utilise the accelerating attrition propelling the war into its last 12 months, to commence this summer offensive on Orekhov.

Russia could begin by expoiting manpower shortages and crossing the Vovcha river to Andreyevka-Klevtsovo and reverting the gains made in Ukraine's recent winter offensive. Villages such as Podgavrylovka, Gavrylovka, Orly, and Velikomikhaylovka will likely need to be captured. Pokrovske will likely need to be taken in frontal assaults from the east and south due to unfavourable dynamics for envelopment.

Simultaenously to this, an offensive on the western flank may take place toward the strategically important town of Kamyshevakha (Komyshuvakha). After again clearing Stepnogorsk from the AFU and anchoring their lines along the Konka river, Russian forces can begin working their way toward Kamyshevakha, applying pressure to Tavreyske and hence Orekhov.

For the second phase of this offensive, once Pokrovske and Kamyshevakha have been taken, Russian forces will have a very wide overstretched front to push westward toward the next strategically critical locations of Mykolske and Omelnyk. By the time these advances begin, the curtains on Orekhov will be pulled inwards quickly, as a significantly lengthened front at this time (possibly September-October) will be horrible for the then very very weary and on the brink AFU.

Shortly enough, the front will likely settle before Novomikolayevka and cascade downward from Mykolske to Omelnyk, cutting the final road supplying Orekhov and effectively collapsing the entire southern front that has held generally steady for 3 years.

The fall of Orekhov and of the entire southern front, likely by the end of the year, will set up a perfect springboard for Russian armoured formations to exploit the final collapse of the front and race to Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, and Pavlograd.

Thank you all for your attention and let me know what you think in the comments.

Possible goal for Russia during the summer. Advances typically speed up during warmer months so it's certainly possible we see a second attempt at encircling Orikhiv.

Also, keep an eye on Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kostyantynivka.

If you are currently in Iran, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, UAE, Bahrain or any country where there is relevant developments occurring right now, please reach out to me via the Channel DMs or my personal account @AMK_Mapping1 if you have any news/photos/videos that I can post.

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US/Israeli airstrikes targeted the radar installation near the city of Likak, southwestern Iran.

So far, this facility has been attacked at least 10 times.

US/Israeli airstrikes are targeting the southeastern suburbs of Tehran.

New Israeli airstrikes are targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Ukrainian forces have re-established control over the village of Novyi Donbas, Dobropillya direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~549.
Total land area: ~0.89 km².

The second battle for Novyi Donbas lasted approximately 2 months, 5 days.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz announced that the IDF plans to establish control over a "security zone" over the entirety of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, forcibly displacing over 600,000 Lebanese residents and preventing their return until they can ensure the safety of northern Israeli settlements.

He stated that the IDF will flatten all Lebanese border towns and villages, following the model of the flattening and demolitions of cities in Gaza.