3 people were lightly injured from the Iranian attack in Tel Aviv

A large fire is seen burning at the Ust-Luga Port in Leningrad Oblast after multiple Ukrainian drones struck it overnight. The fires from the original strikes have still not been extinguished either.

This is the fourth attack on the port in the last 6 days.

A MiG-31K fighter departed from Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.

For now it doesn't look like a combat flight, but anything is possible considering the recent Kinzhal attacks.

The airspace in the area of the launch lines has been closed. This likely means it is carrying out a training mission.

Yes. Just a training mission, possibly of a different type of MiG-31 aircraft

Numerous explosions were heard in Dubai over a period of 5-10 minutes in the area of the Jumeirah Lakes Towers.

Currently unclear if there were any impacts, but this was a much larger attack than usual.

Ballistic missile launch from Iran to central Israel

It should go without saying, but dont post photos that you or someone you know took of attacks in Israel, the Gulf States, or Iran in my comments. You risk getting yourself or someone else imprisoned.

You can, however, send any exclusive photos/videos to me (@AMK_Mapping1 or through channel DMs), and I will crop/blur out the foreground and any locational data to prevent people from finding the location from which it was taken.

Sirens in 2-3 mins

Interceptor launches

THAAD

Interception attempts over Jordan

Sirens in central Israel

Explosions were heard over Tel Aviv

1 ballistic missile was shot down over Tel Aviv.

Interceptor activity seen over Tel Aviv

US airstrikes targeted Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) positions in the Nineveh Governorate of northern Iraq.

Heres what i predict for the future winding back of the Ukrainian winter counteroffensive and resumption of the offensive on Orekhov.

Firstly, a potential prerequisite for the development of the eastern flank of Orekhov could be the capture of Novopavlovka and Mezhova (Dnepropetrovsk oblast).

It is likely Russia will soon, possibly from May-June, utilise the accelerating attrition propelling the war into its last 12 months, to commence this summer offensive on Orekhov.

Russia could begin by expoiting manpower shortages and crossing the Vovcha river to Andreyevka-Klevtsovo and reverting the gains made in Ukraine's recent winter offensive. Villages such as Podgavrylovka, Gavrylovka, Orly, and Velikomikhaylovka will likely need to be captured. Pokrovske will likely need to be taken in frontal assaults from the east and south due to unfavourable dynamics for envelopment.

Simultaenously to this, an offensive on the western flank may take place toward the strategically important town of Kamyshevakha (Komyshuvakha). After again clearing Stepnogorsk from the AFU and anchoring their lines along the Konka river, Russian forces can begin working their way toward Kamyshevakha, applying pressure to Tavreyske and hence Orekhov.

For the second phase of this offensive, once Pokrovske and Kamyshevakha have been taken, Russian forces will have a very wide overstretched front to push westward toward the next strategically critical locations of Mykolske and Omelnyk. By the time these advances begin, the curtains on Orekhov will be pulled inwards quickly, as a significantly lengthened front at this time (possibly September-October) will be horrible for the then very very weary and on the brink AFU.

Shortly enough, the front will likely settle before Novomikolayevka and cascade downward from Mykolske to Omelnyk, cutting the final road supplying Orekhov and effectively collapsing the entire southern front that has held generally steady for 3 years.

The fall of Orekhov and of the entire southern front, likely by the end of the year, will set up a perfect springboard for Russian armoured formations to exploit the final collapse of the front and race to Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, and Pavlograd.

Thank you all for your attention and let me know what you think in the comments.

Possible goal for Russia during the summer. Advances typically speed up during warmer months so it's certainly possible we see a second attempt at encircling Orikhiv.

Also, keep an eye on Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kostyantynivka.