By now, I think it's fairly clear what Iran's strategy in this war is.
The US/Israel and Iran have different criteria to be considered a "winner". The US/Israel have to achieve regime change and install a proxy government, whereas Iran's government simply has to survive.
It's been over 4 days. There have been no signs of popular uprising aimed at toppling the regime, and no cracks have shown in Iran's government.
Iran is still consistently launching dozens of missiles and dozens of drones at Israel and the gulf states daily, despite serious blows to their military and leadership.
I saw a lot of people declare the war as won when Khamenei was assassinated. Any serious observer should have realised that this was never the case. Iran's leadership and military are very robust, and they were never going to collapse due to the loss of the supreme leader.
The US and Israel are going to begin running low on interceptor missiles soon - it was well known that they didn't have enough to begin with. Much older PAC-2 interceptors for Patriots have already begun being used in Qatar, likely due to shortages.
And of course, there is very little popular support for this war in the US, especially with younger generations becoming more and more anti-Israel, and viewing this war as only benefiting Israel. It's clear that Israel wanted this war done now rather than never, in part due to this revolutionary change in sentiments in the US since October 2023.
To keep up prolonged wars, you need popular support back at home, otherwise it quickly becomes untenable, especially in "democratic" countries like the US where people have at least some form of influence against government decisions. For example, the war in Ukraine is very popular in Russia, which allows them to continue this very long and costly war of attrition.
The US is fighting against a middling power - not a much weaker state that would capitulate instantly. This war won't last a few days, and will likely stretch on for a bare minimum of 3 weeks. The US cannot keep this war up forever, and Iran knows this, which is why they are doing everything they can to stretch it out as long as possible.
The US/Israel and Iran have different criteria to be considered a "winner". The US/Israel have to achieve regime change and install a proxy government, whereas Iran's government simply has to survive.
It's been over 4 days. There have been no signs of popular uprising aimed at toppling the regime, and no cracks have shown in Iran's government.
Iran is still consistently launching dozens of missiles and dozens of drones at Israel and the gulf states daily, despite serious blows to their military and leadership.
I saw a lot of people declare the war as won when Khamenei was assassinated. Any serious observer should have realised that this was never the case. Iran's leadership and military are very robust, and they were never going to collapse due to the loss of the supreme leader.
The US and Israel are going to begin running low on interceptor missiles soon - it was well known that they didn't have enough to begin with. Much older PAC-2 interceptors for Patriots have already begun being used in Qatar, likely due to shortages.
And of course, there is very little popular support for this war in the US, especially with younger generations becoming more and more anti-Israel, and viewing this war as only benefiting Israel. It's clear that Israel wanted this war done now rather than never, in part due to this revolutionary change in sentiments in the US since October 2023.
To keep up prolonged wars, you need popular support back at home, otherwise it quickly becomes untenable, especially in "democratic" countries like the US where people have at least some form of influence against government decisions. For example, the war in Ukraine is very popular in Russia, which allows them to continue this very long and costly war of attrition.
The US is fighting against a middling power - not a much weaker state that would capitulate instantly. This war won't last a few days, and will likely stretch on for a bare minimum of 3 weeks. The US cannot keep this war up forever, and Iran knows this, which is why they are doing everything they can to stretch it out as long as possible.
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AMK Mapping
New Iranian drones are entering the West Bank.
One drone is flying further west.
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Forwarded from WarFront Witness (Meer)
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⚡️🇺🇸🇮🇶 🇮🇶 U.S. Airstrikes have targeted Popular Mobilisation Forces positions in multiple locations across Iraq.
A strike hit the 30th Brigade headquarters in the Qalaat area of Bartella district, east of Mosul; no casualties were reported.
Additional airstrikes were carried out in Anbar, Babylon and Jarf al‑Nasr in Diyala Governorate.
@wfwitness
A strike hit the 30th Brigade headquarters in the Qalaat area of Bartella district, east of Mosul; no casualties were reported.
Additional airstrikes were carried out in Anbar, Babylon and Jarf al‑Nasr in Diyala Governorate.
@wfwitness
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The 2 missiles which flew towards northern Israel were shot down over Jordan
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Hezbollah rocket impacts near Kiryat Shmona, northern Israel.
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