Correction: test launches of S-500 air defence missiles are being carried out from Kapustin Yar. Ukrainian intel got it mixed up with Oreshnik activity.

The restrictions imposed on Ukrainian channels regarding sharing information on the Ukrainian counteroffensive operations is slowly being lifted, with more and more channels talking about successes.

These are the same channels which previously claimed there was no counteroffensive, and that most Russian maps were incorrect. Over the next few weeks, this will continue to be lifted further, and the situation will become clearer. The Ukrainian OPSEC operation which aimed to conceal the first stages of the counteroffensive appears to be largely over.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian advances have significantly slowed over the past 5 days, and casualties are beginning to mount, as Russia concentrates significant air and artillery fire in this direction. They are still advancing in multiple areas of the Pokrovs'ke and Hulyaipole directions, and will continue to advance for likely at least the next week.

Ukrainian forces are now pushing through areas with a much higher Russian troop presence, and once the Russian withdrawals from forward positions are complete, the line of contact will be significantly shortened and Russia will begin being able to contain the advance and push back in some tactically important areas.

In the Komyshuvakha direction, Ukrainian forces continued their counterattacks and have made new progress in three different areas.

In the west, Ukrainian forces continued pushing through Prymorske, crossing the Pererva Gulley and reaching more entrenched Russian positions in the centre of the village. They were able to establish control over the central part of Prymorske and began infiltrating Russian positions in the southern streets, where a layered zone has formed with both Russian and Ukrainian positions overlapping. Additionally, Ukrainian forces were able to capture the last parts of the Pererva Gulley and began pushing southeast down Hnidoho Road towards the intersection with the M-18 Highway.

To the east, the Ukrainians crossed the Pererva Gulley, and advanced down the M-18 Highway, where they captured some positions in the treelines just south of the gulley. From there, small groups are advancing southwest down the highway, with some soldiers managing to infiltrate behind Russian lines and entrench in a few houses in the central part of Plavni.

In the southeast, Ukrainian forces secured a number of treeline positions north of Stepnohirsk, as well as some of the northern streets of the town, paving the way for reinforcements to arrive. They also expanded the grey-zone in the northern part of the town, where both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers remain. Russian forces retain full control over the central block of high-rise buildings.

+ ~4.61 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

In the Omelnyk direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations and have made new progress in two different areas.

In the south, Russian forces continued advancing southwest of Hulyaipole and have reversed all Ukrainian progress in the fields there. They were able to resecure the treeline positions directly west of the highway and began advancing from the flanks from the north and south, capturing positions in numerous different treelines. They also pushed northwest again, back up the railway windbreaks, recapturing previously lost positions there, and are now attempting to attack from the fields to the east and establish themselves along the rest of the railway line.

To the northwest, Russian soldiers continued entering Zaliznychne from the northeast and southeast in small groups, and are engaged in fighting for the central and western parts of the town. Ukrainian forces are constantly counterattacking, slowing Russian progress and preventing them from consolidating. Additionally, Russian forces captured positions in the gulley east of Tsvitkove and have infiltrated the village, which now resides in the grey-zone.

+ ~9.79 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

In the Pokrovs'ke direction, Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive, making some additional gains amid fierce Russian resistance.

After recapturing the village of Vidradne, Ukrainian forces continued advancing south towards the Yanchur River. They were able to capture a number of treeline positions west of the highway, as well as some trench fortifications south of Vidradne, and continued attacks on the village of Andriivka. They also improved their positions in the treelines southeast of the village.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians continued attacking south of the tributary of the Yanchur River, but without any new confirmed successes. Fighting continues for the central parts of Vyshneve and Verbove, as well as in the treelines southwest of Verbove. Russian forces have significantly intensified their artillery, drone, and glide-bomb strikes on Ukrainian assault groups, resulting in a sharp rise in casualties, and are now fighting in a much more coordinated manner with a shortened line of contact and more manpower at their disposal.

+ ~6.45 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

In the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces restarted their assault operations at the Dnipropetrovsk - Donetsk regional border, and have captured new positions there.

Russian forces advanced west along the southern bank of the Solona River and re-entered the village of Novomykolaivka, which Ukrainian forces had previously recaptured in August 2025. They were able to entrench in the eastern streets and are now fighting for the central part of the village. Aditionally, the Russians advanced west from the 2014-era concrete trench fortification, crossing the regional border and capturing some treeline positions.

+ ~3.84 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

Russian forces have recaptured the village of Sukhetske, Dobropillya direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~39.
Total land area: ~0.35 km².

Russian forces have captured the village of Kharkivka, Hlukhiv direction, Sumy Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~56.
Total land area: ~0.55 km².

In the Dobropillya direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces are attacking, with Russian forces making new progress in two different areas.

In the south, after extensive artillery and drone preparation, Russian forces stormed the final Ukrainian stronghold in Rodynske, and captured the last parts of the city centre and western streets, bringing the city under their full control, and therefore establishing full control over the Pokrovsk agglomeration.

To the north, after entering Sukhetske from the east, the Russians were able to establish full control over the village. Additionally, they are continuing their deep infiltrations to the former Vodyanskaya No. 2 Mine west of the highway, while Ukrainian forces are carrying out counterattacks aimed at eliminating these infiltrators and clearing the grey-zone. Ukrainian assault groups are also carrying out clearing operations in the area of the road west of Dorozhnje.

+ ~3.36 in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

⚡🇺🇸🇮🇷 An unprecedented 19 US airforce tankers took off towards Europe in the past 8 hours. If they are dragging fighter jets with them we might be seen more than a hundred jets being transfered to the Middle-East.

In red are the tankers currently over the continental United States likely departing for Europe.

@wfwitness

In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces continued their offensive operation and have made new progress south of Kostyanytnivka.

In the southwest, Russian forces improved their positions in the treelines west of the forested gulley leading to Illinivka, and continued infiltrating the eastern part of the village.

To the east, the Russians captured new treeline positions north of the highway and continued infiltrating the southwestern suburbs of Kostyantynivka via the industrial zone. Fighting is ongoing with small groups of infantry in the high-rise blocks of the Pivdenny, Nuloviy, Soniachnyi, and 2nd Districts, as well as the private sectors of the Berestoviy and Prohresyvnyi Districts, where both sides are currently attacking.

Further east, Russian forces captured the remaining positions south of the Klebina Gulley and began infiltrating the area of the landfill. They also resumed assault operations on the enterprises adjacent to the Kostyantynivka Railway Station.

In the northeast, Russian forces began infiltrating towards the village of Chervone from the south and the east, where large grey-zones have formed.

+ ~1.43 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

In preparation for the next combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine, which I warned about yesterday, Russian An-72, An-148-100 and An-26 cargo planes landed at Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast, and Baltimore Airbase, Voronezh Oblast, delivering Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Iskander-K cruise missiles.

The attack is expected to take place some time in the next few days. It will not involve Tu-95MS or Tu-160 strategic bombers.

In the Rai-Oleksandrivka and Lyman directions, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have advanced.

In the southeast, Russian forces improved their positions in the forests and treelines overlooking Riznykivka, and entered the forested gulley to the northwest. They are now infiltrating further south down this gulley and the next gulley to the west. Meanwhile, Ukrainian assault groups are attacking Russian positions in the treelines southeast of Riznykivka.

To the northwest, the Russians captured the positions in the chalk hills which they previously entered, and began pushing southwest, clearing additional Ukrainian strongpoints, and entering the northeastern houses of Kryva Luka. On the otherhand, Ukrainian forces cleared out Russian infiltrators from the treelines southeast of Kryva Luka.

To the north, Russian forces captured some additional positions in the chalky hills, south of Zakitne, where Ukrainian forces are currently operationally encircled. They also completed the capture of Zakitne, driving the Ukrainians out of their last positions in the western part of the village. Additionally, the Russians entered the forests southeast of Ozerne and captured some positions there, while other forces cleared the remaining positions east of the village and continued attacking the last Ukrainian positions in the southern streets.

In the northwest, Russian forces continued pushing west from Dibrova, capturing new positions in the forests in two areas in the direction of Brusivka. They also broke through Ukrainian positions further north, capturing new parts of the forest in the direction of Staryi Karavan, with some soldiers coming within 600 metres of the village, where fighting is now underway.

+ ~6.85 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~0.58 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

The revival of Rybar as a reliable source was not on my bingo card for 2026.

Does anyone remember this from October 2023? I don't think they ever recovered from this map update lmao.

I recently spoke with a civilian living in the city of Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, which is around 9 km from the frontline. He has allowed me to make a post, quoting what he said about the situation in the region, as Russian forces advance closer and the battle for neighbouring Kostyantynivka rages on:

"[Druzhkivka is] becoming another Konstantinovka. I'd say it's like Konstantinovka in May-June 2025 or something like that. With several differences, though - like we only get 3 hours of electricity a day and in Konstantinovka, this problem wasn't that serious (at least in 50% of the city). And there are much fewer artillery bombardments, in Konstantinovka I heard them all the time (and they were not accurate 90% of the time), here - almost none. And it looks like there are fewer military cars because there are more drones."

"Ukrainian military here is... Well, in Konstantinovka, they typically rented houses. Here, I often see a hole in the fence and 3-5 soldiers who live there. They just rip off those fence panels and start living in an empty house. Well, maybe it's because Druzhkovka is much smaller, I don't know. And because they can't live in khruschovkas [apartment buildings] here like they did in my city - because they use generators 24/7 and you can't do it in a 5-storey building."

"There are still... Public services? Municipal services? You know, water utility workers, nature gas utility workers, etc. They even fixed the gas station. The Russians bombed a gas distribution station with 2 bombs on 30 January when it was -18 degrees below zero (-0.4 F). I don't know why they did it, I have lots of questions considering what I saw in Konstantinovka and here. The last market bombing, why? FPV drones bombing civilian cars? What's the point? I don't know."

"So anyway, around 90% of shops are closed, those which are still open work with generators. Even the mayor is still here, unlike that bitch (sorry) in Konstantinovka."

"And there are around 14,000-15,000 people in the city [pre-war population was 54,000]. The next wave of evacuation will probably start when there will be no electricity at all, or when they will start bomb 5- and 9-storey buildings, like in August in Konstantinovka. ТЦК [territorial recruitment] is also a problem. There were no military checkpoints with those draft officers between Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka. Between Druzhkovka and Kramatorsk, there is a checkpoint - for example, if I go there, I'll most likely end up in the military. That's why most men stay in Druzhkovka, and if men stay, their families stay with them."

Several Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon just now.

A Russian Tornado-S rocket launched from the vicinity of Mykhailivka impacted a target near Zaporizhzhia International Airport just now. The rocket was equipped with a cluster warhead.

Scenes from Tabna, southern Lebanon, where smoke can be seen rising following an Israeli airstrike. At least 3 airstrikes have been carried out so far.

The IDF stated that they are carrying out strikes on "Hezbollah terror infrastructure sites".

— When you look at footage of Operation True Promise-2 as opposed to Iran's operations during the 12-Day War, it's clear why preemptive strikes are so important.

During True Promise-2, Iran had the initiative, we attacked from multiple missile bases that were fully operational and when Israel did not expect it. As a result, at least 50 missiles hit their targets in one wave. Unfortunately Iran didn't target Tel Aviv metropolitan area during that operation, it would've been very effective.

Anyway, during the 12-Day War, Iranian missile bases were heavily suppressed, which led to a lesser volume of missiles being launched simultaneously and therefore less hits in each wave due to easier interceptions.

In my opinion it's a waste of missiles to wait for the enemy to attack first. Iran's missiles provide their primary advantage when used in an offensive context, when Iran is the attacker—not the attacked.

@Middle_East_Spectator

The reformists in power in Iran are delusional, and blinded by the "possibility" of a peaceful resolution. Never negotiate with the U.S. unless YOU KNOW the U.S. is going to get something significantly positive out of it, that wouldn't be feasible for them to obtain through war. By negotiating, the U.S. is stalling and working to build "justification" for the upcoming attacks, just like with the whole drug smuggling thing with Venezuela. They can pretend that they negotiated in good faith, and that "Iran was just too stubborn to come to an agreement, so they forced our hand".

The U.S. and Israel WILL strike Iran, and everyone knows this. Iran is essentially just waiting to be attacked, because they are scared that them attacking first will create justification for massive American attacks. What they seem to fail to realise is that the U.S. is very good at brainwashing its citizens into thinking that attacking/invading a country that they knew nothing about 6 months ago is for the greater good. The "justification" can always be created one way or another, and if worst comes to worst, they can just false flag them.