For the next 4 days, there is an increased threat of a large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

If this attack occurs, it will involve Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles, Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles, Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, and Kalibr cruise missiles.

This would server as a "part 2" to today's attack, and would primarily target Kyiv Oblast, and parts of central and eastern Ukraine.

There is also a threat of Kinzhal launches from MiG-31K fighters during the day - especially for the next 4 hours. Any strikes will target energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine.

https://open.substack.com/pub/delwinstrategy/p/the-grey-zone-a-doctrinal-clarification?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=6r3ige

Good reading on mapping.

All notions are well defined.

Grey zone,
Control
No-mans land
FLOT
Consolidation
etc.

Possible departures of 2-3 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers from Olenya Airbase

A large fire is seen burning from Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, after the "Hirnycha" 330 kV electrical substation was struck by a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile equipped with a cluster warhead, on the southern outskirts of the city.

The Tu-22m3s landed at Shaykovka Airbase, Kaluga Oblast

As a result of the combined Russian missile and drone attack on the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, much of the city of Burshtyn is now without heating.

A large column of fire trucks could be seen driving to the plant, which is currently on fire.

Overnight, Ukrainian UAVs attacked energy infrastructure in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan.

At least one drone impacted the "Verkhniy Uslon" 110 kV electrical substation, resulting in a fire breaking out.

Coordinates: 55.74932, 48.94610

Approximately 970 km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory.

The Ukrainian Airforce claims they shot down all 25 cruise missiles launched by Russia overnight.

They did the meme...

Last night and this morning, another large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack was carried out on Ukraine.

Missiles launched:

~16 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers at their launch lines over the Caspian Sea in Limansky District, Astrakhan Oblast.

~12 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from 2 Tu-160M strategic bombers at their launch lines over the Caspian Sea in Limansky District, Astrakhan Oblast.

~6 Iskander-K cruise missiles launched from OTRK installations in Kursk Oblast.

~4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

~1 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from an OTRK installation near Dzhankoi, Crimea.

~1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile launched from a Su-34 at its launch lines near Kamianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

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Total missiles launched:

~28 Kh-101 cruise missiles.
~6 Iskander-K cruise missiles.
~5 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
~1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile.

~40 missiles in total.

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Ukrainian air defence work:

As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to intercept at least 14 Kh-101s, 2 Iskander-Ks, and 1 Kh-59/69.

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The main targets for this strike was Ukrainian energy infrastructure in western Ukraine. The following was targeted:

- "Zakhidnoukrainska" 750 kV electrical substation, Lviv Oblast (49.38707, 24.24990) by ~4 Kh-101s & 4 Iskander-Ks.

- "Podilska" 330 kV electrical substation, Odesa Oblast (47.83028, 29.5142) by ~5 Kh-101s.

- Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (49.20902, 24.66568) by ~3 Kh-101s.

- "Hirnycha" 330 kV electrical substation, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by ~1 Iskander-M.

- Unknown target in/near Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast by ~3 Iskander-Ms.

- Unknown target near Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast, by ~2 Kh-101s.

- Unknown fuel-related target in Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by ~1 Iskander-M.

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Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches.

Pro-Ukrainians will say 100% of missiles were shot down.
Pro-Russians will say every single missile hit its target.

It's always somewhere in between, but most people aren't ready to accept that yet.

I always regret opening the cesspool which Twitter is. It seems every day there's a new person trying to prove I'm an FSB operative or something.

"Not taking things well" but yet I've had some of the most extensive coverage of this Ukrainian counteroffensive since it began.

Stupidity from these people who claim to support Ukraine really has no limits.

The funny thing is, people never end up tagging me in these posts. So every now and then, I'll stumble across a thread posted 6 months ago with 100,000 views making allegations about me that I'd never even heard of 🤣🤣

This morning, a Ukrainian long-range UAV struck a methanol production facility at the Metafrax Chemical plant in the city of Gubakha, Perm Krai.

Coordinates: 58.89291, 57.57235.

The distance from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory is approximately 1,600 km.

I have a theory that, as described by AMK, the ‘death’ of the conventional frontline and the beginning of fluidity and deep infiltration, is a sign that the collapse is a step closer. Ukraine’s critical lack of manpower means their command is concentrating troops in areas and leaving others almost entirely defended by drones. They use these concentrated troop formations to carry out infiltrations and counterattacks, and, due to relying on drones almost exclusively to hold some sectors, are extremely vulnerable to deep Russian infiltrations, by DRGs and then assault groups shortly afterward. In other words, Ukraine is using infantry to attack and drone operators to defend. The next natural step from here, which will indicate total collapse is imminent, will be Ukraine losing the ability to counterattack anywhere. This will suggest Ukraine is out of manpower to expend and is down to simply what is left there holding the front.