In a nutshell, this operation seems to be an attempt at countering the Russian plans for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which I outlined in this post (and the analysis above it):
https://t.me/AMK_Mapping/21213

The airspace over the Kapustin Yar Testing Ground in Astrakhan will be closed from February 16 to 19.

It's unclear if this is related to the test launches of Oreshnik IRBMs, or for other missiles (like I mentioned above). An Oreshnik strike on Ukraine is very unlikely.

As a result of last night's Iskander-M ballistic missile strikes on energy infrastructure in Kyiv, the CHP-5 and CHP-6 Combined Heat and Power Plants received damage.

At CHP-5 in southern Kyiv, the circular pumps and water preparation system suffered significant damage.

At CHP-6 in northeastern Kyiv, the gas distribution and gas compressor devices were damaged.

Ukrainian Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal predicted that the restoration of power from CHP-5 will take approximately 24 hours, while the restoration of power from CHP-6 will take around 2 days. Apparently, due to the above-zero temperature, the water did not have to be drained from the system as it was not frozen.

Meanwhile, the extent of the damage to CHP-4 is minimal.

Footage showing the launch of 6 Ukrainian FP-5 "Flamingo" cruise missiles, which went on to target the 117th GRAU arsenal in Volgograd Oblast, last night.

Notably, the Russian MOD claimed that only 5 were shot down, meaning that at least 1 of the missiles impacted.

Explosion in Sumy. Iskander-M ballistic missile strike.

Another missile to Khotin and then Sumy

This is MLRS.

Dobropillia direction. The direction, as I reported frequently in the past, continues to remain inactive up to Rusyn Yar.
Ukrainian forces are currently exploiting this Russian inactivity to conduct evacuation and logistics missions with UGVs (ground drones).
The frontline itself remains stable, with no Russian advancements to be reported lately, and it's quite calm.
The bulk of Russia's drone attacks (fixed-wing and FPV) are directed at Druzhkivka and the Kramatorsk - Slovyansk area, and they use an unknown type of Starlink substitute to connect, which is working well for them, at least for such long-range strikes.
Drones, airstrikes and artillery, despite the front's calmness, continue to work on both sides.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Dobropillya, Omelynk direction, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~440.
Total land area: ~2.59 km².

The second battle for Dobropillya lasted more than 1 month, 10 days.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Pryluky, Omelynk direction, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~58.
Total land area: ~0.51 km².

The second battle for Pryluky lasted approximately 7 days.

It seems the Russians retreated from one of their bridgeheads west of the Haichur River (the one used to attack Ternuvate last week) due to the risk of encirclement.

The United States withdrew from the Tanf base on February, 11. This base was key to destabilising the Syrian government, combating the Iranian presence and allowing ISIS to strengthen for eight years. With the fall of the previous political regime and the Iranian withdrawal from Syria, the US role has ended, putting an end to its in the Syrian desert of Homs and relocating its forces to eastern Syria, where it will continue to maintain its presence to preserve control of the oil wells and supervise the fragile situation in the northeast of the country after the fall of the SDF project. This withdrawal comes just days after the Russian army withdrew from its base in Qamishli in a redeployment that aims to focus on the coast. For the time being, the Turkish presence remains unchanged, with a possible increase in the future.

As usual, all the recent map updates are available on my interactive map.

I'll probably be too busy and sleep deprived to publish ordinary map updates today, but I'll aim for getting those out tomorrow. You have to remember, this channel is ran by a single person who has other work and responsibilities to take care of outside all of this.

Naturally, this can create delays in updates, as I simply cannot cover everything while simultaneously keeping up with my day-to-day life activities.

Link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

Just realised, it’s been nearly two years since the Ocheretyne breakthrough….

Russia is planning another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which will take place either tomorrow night or the night after.

Russia has accumulated dozens of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and RM-48U S-400 decoy missiles over the last 1-2 weeks, and has concentrated them at various launch locations, especially Bryansk Oblast.

The highest threat is to Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv Oblasts. If anyone is in those regions right now, be extremely careful.

The highest threat is in place for tomorrow night, specifically around 12am-3am Kyiv time.

-------------------

The usual energy objects are at risk:

Kyiv Oblast: CHP-4, CHP-5, CHP-6, Trypillya TPP, Kyiv HPP, Kyiv 750 kV substation.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Prydniprovska TPP, Kryvyi Rih TPP.

Kharkiv Oblast: TEC-5, Zmiivska TPP.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Dnipro HPP, Zaporizka 750 kV substation.